Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 109.614 | EURUSD 1.06047 | AUDUSD 0.74987 | NZDUSD 0.69580 | USDCAD 1.33254 | USDCHF 1.00735 | GBPUSD 1.24911 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.06154 | 1.0595
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 109.752 | 109.351
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.24941 | 1.2481
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.00816 | 1.00669
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.75087 | 0.74844
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.33395 | 1.33243
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.69607 | 0.6933
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.06890 | 1.06805
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.84996 | 0.84862
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 116.386 | 115.935
For Today
- EUR: A very quiet session overall with the Euro opening around the 1.0605 areas and testing slowly into the 1.0615 areas before dropping back quickly to test through the 1.0600 areas and holding the area through to the grey hour, Topside offers limited through to the 1.0640-60 areas with limited congestion through the level and some stronger offers into the 1.0680-1.0700 levels, a push through the 1.0720 areas sees possible weak stops leading to further congestion. Downside bids through the 1.0600 areas are likely to be light with better bids moving in around the 1.0550 levels and stronger still into 1.0500 with stops likely on a move through the 1.0480 areas.
- GBP: If the Euro was quiet then Cable fell asleep along the way with the market drifting around the 1.2490-80 areas for the session, Topside offers into the 1.2500 levels with light weak stops on a move through the 1.2520 areas and stronger offers into the 1.2550 areas, a strong push here will likely see some stronger stops on a move towards the 1.2600 areas and possible strong offers. Downside bids light through to the limited 1.2450 areas and better bids on a test back to the 1.2400 level.
- JPY: Opening around the 109.60 levels the market rose in early trading through the 109.70 areas before dropping back quickly with CNY numbers helping the regional currencies, the market dipped into the 109.35 areas before recovering and trading around the 109.50 levels, Topside offers light through the 110.00 areas with the likelihood of stops on a move through the level with weak shorts and the market opening to test through to the 110.80 areas and likely offers into the 111.00 areas, Downside bids a little vague with sentimental bids likely to dominate the market for the moment geopolitical intrigues possibly setting the tone for safe haven movements if that is possible, with some bids likely through the 109.30 levels and into the 109.00 areas however, the market is likely to be thin on a move lower.
- AUD: Range bound still with the market trading around the 0.75 cent level in early trading unable to push beyond the 0.7510 areas and then slipping lower on the CNY numbers to test through to the 0.7485 areas before returning towards the 75 cent level in a run to the grey hours, Downside bids likely into the 0.7450 areas likely to be light with weak stops through the level into the 74 cent level with only slightly better bids, topside offers light through to the 0.7540 areas with possibly stronger offers through towards the 0.7580-0.7600 levels before decent stops appear on a push through however, the topside remains congested and any movement remains mired.
Overnight News
CNY:
China March producer inflation cools, consumer inflation below forecast
KRW:
N.Korea warns of nuclear strike if provoked
USD/CNY:
China’s Xi discusses N.Korea situation with Trump on call state TV
Xi stresses on call that resolution of situation on Korean peninsula should be achieved via peaceful means
Xi discusses Syria in call with Trump, says that any use of chemical weapons is unacceptable
Xi calls for political settlement of Syrian issue during call with Trump
USD:
US small businesses expect continued 2017 growth
USD/JPY:
Joint Navy plan to show force towards N.Korea
AUD:
April consumer confidence falls 0.7% MoM to 99
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Machine Orders M/M Feb A 1.50% | C 3.70% | P -3.20%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Domestic CGPI Y/Y Mar A 1.40% | C 1.40% | P 1.00% | R 1.10%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Consumer Confidence Apr A -0.70% | P 0.10%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Mar A 0.90% | C 1.00% | P 0.80%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â PPI Y/Y Mar A 7.60% | C 7.50% | P 7.80%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Jobless Claims Change Mar C -10.2K | P -11.3K
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Claimant Count Rate Mar P 2.10%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) Feb C 4.70% | P 4.70%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y Feb C 2.20% | P 2.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Import Price Index M/M Mar C -0.30% | P 0.20%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoC Rate Decision C 0.50% | P 0.50%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories P 1.M
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Monthly Budget Statement Mar C -150.0B | P -192.0B
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Harry Hindsight
- EUR: Moving from the opening around the 1.0595 levels the market briefly pushed above the 1.0600 areas before heading into the Tokyo session slipping a little lower over an extended period, the market based along the 1.0580 areas through into the grey hour before London started to buy through to push to the 1.0620 levels, the market held the level and while volumes across the market were healthy the Euros drive higher met limited resistance which eventually gave way a little into the NYK session with the market pushing to the 1.0630 highs before the market drifted off back to hold around the 1.0605 levels through to the close.
- GBP: Initially pushing through to the 1.2430 areas the market struggled with the level and began to slip back towards the 1.2400 areas into the London opening, CPI saw a small increase over expectations add to which concerns about the RPI number holding below its expectations saw the market rising through to the 1.2450 areas before dropping back again to the 1.2410 areas, the market then saw a steady rise through the session with the NYK market pushing through the 1.2450 areas and some weak stops through the level to test to the 1.2490 levels on the back of growing concerns of inflation getting out of control if the BoE continues to hold back from raising rates for too long, the market ran to the close holding the highs in a quiet end to the day.
- JPY: While Asia was fairly quiet through the session with the market opening on its highs just above the 110.90 level the market slipped slowly lower through the session to test into the London opening pushing through the 110.50 areas and holding through to the NYK session, geopolitical concerns saw a weaker USD added to the safe haven flows of the JPY and the USDJPY headed to a near 5 month low basing along the 109.60 areas through to the close.
- AUD: A mixed day with the market holding for the most part around the 75 cent levels, the move through the Asian session saw the market testing repeatedly to the 0.7515 areas through into the NYK session, the market moved around the 75 cent level having failed the topside a couple of times and the market held through into the London session around the figure, London again tested the topside however, the move into the NYK session saw the NYK option cut saw the market probing lower to the 0.7475 areas before once again recovering into the London close and a quiet end to the day little changed.
Yesterday’s premiership results
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BRC Retail Sales Monitor Y/Y Mar A -1.00% | C -0.50% | P -0.40%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAB Business Confidence Mar A 6 | P 7
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Machine Tool Orders Y/Y Mar (P) A 22.60% | P 9.10%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Mar A 0.40% | C 0.30% | P 0.70%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Mar A 2.30% | C 2.30% | P 2.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Core CPI Y/Y Mar A 1.80% | C 1.90% | P 2.00%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RPI M/M Mar A 0.30% | C 0.40% | P 1.10%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RPI Y/Y Mar A 3.10% | C 3.20% | P 3.20%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Input M/M Mar A 0.40% | C -0.10% | P -0.40% | R -0.10%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Input Y/Y Mar A 17.90% | C 17.00% | P 19.10% | R 19.40%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output M/M Mar A 0.40% | C 0.10% | P 0.20%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Y/Y Mar A 3.60% | C 3.40% | P 3.70%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Core M/M Mar A 0.30% | C 0.20% | P 0.00%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Core Y/Y Mar A 2.50% | C 2.50% | P 2.40%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â House Price Index Y/Y Feb A 5.80% | C 6.10% | P 6.20%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Feb A -0.30% | C 0.10% | P 0.90%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â German ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Apr A 19.5 | C 14.8 | P 12.8
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â German ZEW (Current Situation) Apr A 80.1 | C 77.5 | P 77.3
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Apr A 26.3 | C 25 | P 25.6
Good Luck,
Andy
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