Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 109.091 | EURUSD 1.06132 | AUDUSD 0.75683 | NZDUSD 0.70041 | USDCAD 1.33280 | USDCHF 1.00587 | GBPUSD 1.25030 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.06243 | 1.06089
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 109.233 | 109.092
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.25125 | 1.25001
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.00596 | 1.00435
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.75733 | 0.75579
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.33375 | 1.33194
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.70045 | 0.69834
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.06770 | 1.06702
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.84955 | 0.84801
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 116.022 | 115.791
For Today
- EUR: As you’d expect for a good Friday bank holiday the market saw very little volume or movement, trading quietly through into Tokyo there was a little bit of a movement in mid-session with comments out of China on N.Korea and Moscow with understanding on Syria with the US then denied by the US, this set the range for the day with the market testing the 1.0610 levels and then moving to the 1.0625 level, however, this was over time and not a major run around of the market, the market eventually drifted through to the lows again for the move into London, Topside offers light through the 1.0640-60 areas with stronger offers into the 1.0680 areas through the 1.0700 areas and congestion through to the 1.0750 areas. Downside bids into the 1.0600 areas are likely to be light with weak stops appearing through the level and possibly another run to the stronger bids into the 1.0550 levels and likely to extend to the 1.0500-1.0480 levels.
- GBP: Very little movement with the market opening around the 1.2505 areas and struggling in a narrow range to push into the grey hours testing the 1.2510 level. Downside bids light through the 1.2500 levels with light bids into the 1.2450 areas with weak stops likely on a strong move through the area, stronger bids into the 1.2400 levels likely to limit the downside, Topside offers into the 1.2550 areas with the market likely to see congestion through the level and stronger offers appearing into the 1.2600 areas.
- JPY: Opening around the 109.15 level the market ranged through the early part of the session around that level before lifting a little and trading between the 109.15-20 areas through to the grey hours, Topside offers light through to the 109.35 areas with some resistance likely to be seen before weak stops open the market to a test to the 109.80-110.00 areas, Downside bids light through the 109.00 level before stiffening on a move through to the 108.60-40 areas, those bids are likely to increase into the sentimental 108.00 areas and with much of the market away for a long weekend there is a very strong possibility that those ranges will not be seen.
- AUD: Light ranges with the market opening just below the 0.7570 areas and then slowly slipping to post the lows around the 0.7560 areas and then holding around the opening levels. Topside offers through towards the 76 cent levels and as close as that may be it maybe too much to expect, a push through the level will likely see weak stops appearing but congestion continuing through the level, downside bids light through to the 0.7530 areas and while there maybe some support there its limited and the 0.7480 level remains the strong support level.
Overnight News
USD/KRW:
US may launch strike if N.Korea reaches for nuclear trigger
CNY/KRW:
China would guarantee security if N.Korea gave up nuclear weapons
Business insider: China may back away from N.Korea if it keeps up its nuclear program
USD/RUB:
Lavrov says Russia; US agree US strike on Syria should not be repeated
US state dept. Tillerson said this did not eliminate the possibility the US may undertake future strikes
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Feb (F) A 3.20% | C 2.00% | P 2.00%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Mar C 0.00% | P 0.10%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Mar C 2.60% | P 2.70%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core M/M Mar C 0.20% | P 0.20%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core Y/Y Mar C 2.30% | P 2.20%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Advance Retail Sales Mar C -0.10% | P 0.10%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Less Autos Mar C 0.10% | P 0.20%
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Business Inventories Feb C 0.30% | P 0.30%
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: The markets moved through the day quietly with limited movement, the Asian session saw the market highs for the Euro with the opening just off the highs around the 1.0670 testing a little higher through towards the 1.0680 areas and trading around the opening levels through into the London session, with the market slipping lower with early numbers out of Germany in line with expectations, London were slow but steady sellers through the session and the market trickled through the 1.0650 levels and the move into the NYK session saw the market testing the 1.0630 areas NYK saw very little movement however, the volumes through the session were reasonable and once the US numbers were released the market dipped to its lows around the 1.0610 areas before bouncing a little and then ranging around the 1.0610-20 areas to the close.
- GBP: The open around the 1.2540 areas held through into Tokyo were good buyers appeared to take the market to the 1.2575 areas and ranging through to the London session repeatedly testing the topside to no avail before slipping in a tight channel through the day with the market falling back to finish the day on its lows just above the 1.2500 level.
- JPY: A very quiet session for the USDJPY also with the market initially slipping lower from the opening to test below the 108.80 areas, the market held the levels for several hours before starting a steady climb higher through into the grey hour to hit the 1.0920 areas, the London session ranged through early London around the 109.00 areas with the market again rising as the market moved into the NYK session and making the highs just below the 109.40 levels. The end of the London session saw the market slipping down to the 1.0900 areas again and the market holding through to the close around the 109.10 areas in very slow action.
- AUD: The day was all about the employment numbers whether that be the incorrect ones over the past two months or the larger than expected ones released with the market moving off the opening just below the 0.7530 areas to push quickly through to the 0.7570 areas, the market continued to steadily rise through into the London session with the market holding around the 0.7580-90 levels through to the end of London before slipping slowly back to finish off not that far from the highs.
Yesterday’s premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Business NZ Manufacturing Index Mar A 57.8 | P 55.2 | R 55.7
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RICS House Price Balance Mar A 22% | C 22% | P 24%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Mar A 4.30% | C 4.20% | P 4.20%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Inflation Expectation Apr A 4.10% | P 4.00%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBA Financial Stability Review
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Change Mar A 60.9K | C 20.0K | P -6.4K | R 2.8K
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Mar A 5.90% | C 5.90% | P 5.90%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (USD) Mar A 23.9B | C 12.5B | P -9.1B
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (CNY) Mar A 164B | C 76B | P -60B
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â German CPI M/M Mar (F) A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.20%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â German CPI Y/Y Mar (F) A 1.60% | C 1.60% | P 1.60%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Producer & Import Prices M/M Mar A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P -0.20%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Producer & Import Prices Y/Y Mar A 1.30% | C 0.90% | P 1.30%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Housing Price Index M/M Feb A 0.40% | C 0.20% | P 0.10%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Shipments M/M Feb A -0.20% | C -0.70% | P 0.60%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI M/M Mar A -0.10% | C 0.00% | P 0.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Y/Y Mar A 2.30% | C 2.40% | P 2.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core M/M Mar A 0.00% | C 0.20% | P 0.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core Y/Y Mar A 1.60% | C 1.80% | P 1.50%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (APR 08) A 234K | C 245K | P 234K | R 235K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â U. of Michigan Confidence Apr (P) A 98 | C 96.6 | P 96.9
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A 10B | C 5B | P 2B
Good Luck,
Andy
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