Untitled

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 109.102 | EURUSD 1.07252 | AUDUSD 0.75439 | NZDUSD 0.70311 | USDCAD 1.34960 | USDCHF 0.99610 | GBPUSD 1.28094 |

 

LMAX Ranges 6am London time

Highs    Lows

EURUSD               1.09076 | 1.0821

USDJPY                 110.470 | 109.853

GBPUSD               1.28461 | 1.27798

AUDUSD              0.75769 | 0.75388

USDCHF               0.99115 | 0.99808

USDCAD               1.35002 | 1.34742

NZDUSD               0.70460 | 0.70229

EURGBP               0.85137 | 0.84541

EURCHF                1.08220 | 1.07808

EURJPY                 120.383 | 119.007

For today

• EUR: The first round over with the Two candidates to go through to the next round, and with the markets believing the result is a forgone conclusion the Euro opened around the 1.0900 areas before steadily drifting back through the session to test the 1.0820 levels before recovering a little to the 1.0840 areas for the move into the London session, with only IFO numbers to appear in the session, Topside offers into the 1.0920 areas with a similar high in late March, a push through the level will likely see strong stops appearing however, the run towards the 1.1000 areas will find strong sentimental sellers with congestion through the level before moving into the ranges from mid last year, and offers likely into 1.1100 in a similar vein. Downside bids light through to the 1.0700 areas with the likelihood of weak stops on a move down through the 1.0800 areas, with congestion then appearing through to the 1.0700 areas and increasing in size.
• GBP: Only a little movement on the opening with the market opening slightly higher and the market testing through the 1.2840 areas, drifting into the Tokyo session the market tested back to the 1.2810 levels before testing down to the 1.2780 areas into the mid-session and recovering to trade around the 1.2790-1.2800 areas to the grey hours. Light congestion through the 1.2850 areas and stronger offers into the 1.2900 levels with weak stops likely on a move through the level possibly joined by breakout stops for a move through to the 1.3050 areas with only limited congestion on that move higher however, it could take time. Downside bids light through to the 1.2700 areas however, the bids are possibly spread through the 1.2700-1.2600 areas so not so simple the market lower is likely to see bids appearing and congestion from then on likely.
• JPY: The move in Euro saw the EURJPY rally strongly for the opening with the USDJPY opening around the 110.30 areas and topping the 110.45 areas before slowly drifting into the Tokyo session to trade around the 110.00 levels, with the lows just through the 109.90 areas but holding in the areas through to the grey hour. Topside offers into the 110.50 areas are likely to be thinner than they would have been normally with stronger offers likely on a move towards the 110.80-111.20 areas, with probably plenty of congestion on the way to 111.50 areas and stronger offers, a push through the level will likely see stops appearing and a quick move to test the resolve of the 112.00 areas. Downside bids light through to the 109.50 areas and possibly a small base supporting the market from that point on a run to the 109.30 areas and then stronger bids appearing, weak stops on a push through the 109.00 levels is then likely to run into congestion.
• AUD: The Oz saw a gap higher opening in the 0.7570-75 levels before dropping quickly back as early Tokyo AUDJPY profit taking moved into the market, the dip filled the gap on the charts with the market testing to the 0.7540 areas before recovering a little and ranging in a decreasing range between the 0.7550-65 levels to move into the grey hour holding around the 0.7555 level. Topside offers into the 0.7580-0.7600 areas with congestion likely to continue through the topside slowing any movement with increasingly stronger offers into the 77 cent levels and beyond, Downside bids light through to the 0.7540 areas with the market then opening for another test of the 75 cent areas with possible stops on a strong break of the 0.7480 areas and then as with the topside congestion through to the 74 cent levels.

Overnight News                                                                  

GBP:

London house prices post biggest annual decline in 8yrs

USD:

Pence trims Asia session trip to deal with domestic priorities

AUD:

Australia first fortifies position of country’s PM

SGD:

Singapore headline and core inflation unchanged at 0.7% and 1.2% in March

CNY:

China’s Yuan eases amid strong USD demand

China policymakers bullish on economy; cite strong Q1 GDP,

PBOC, must keep money supply under control

EUR:

Draghi says ECB hasn’t seen evidence of durable Eurozone inflation rise

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

GBP       Rightmove House Prices M/M Apr A 1.10% | P 1.30%

08:00     EUR        German IFO – Business Climate Apr C 112.4 | P 112.3

08:00     EUR        German IFO – Expectations Apr C 105.9 | P 105.7

08:00     EUR        German IFO – Current Assessment Apr C 119.2 | P 119.3

10:00     GBP       CBI Trends Total Orders Apr C 6 | P 8

12:30     CAD       Wholesale Sales M/M Feb C -0.90% | P 3.30%

13:00     CNY        Conference Board Leading Index Mar P 1.20%

Weekend News

KRW/USD:

N.Korea says it is ready to strike US aircraft carrier

EUR:

Macron and Le Pen through to the second round with 23.7% and 21.7% respectively

Macron seen winning the second ro0unde with 62-64% according to several polls

Neither of the established parties moved through to the second round.

EUR/USD:

Germany’s Merkel encouraged US will consider EU free trade deal

AfD select leaders while rioters injure police outside meeting in Cologne

GBP:

Conservatives hold 22 point lead ahead of UK elections ICM poll

DKK/RUB:

Russia hacked Danish defence for two years Minister

CNY/USD:

World Bank Group and China led AIIB agree to deepen cooperation

USD:

Peaceful outcome for Korean peninsula still possible – Pence

Harry Hindsight

• EUR: A very tight range for the run into the weekend round one of the French election, opening around the 1.0720 areas and trading through to the London session hardly deviating from that level, the London session saw limited buying to test towards the 1.0740 levels before slipping slowly back with the Election overshadowing PMI numbers with the market eventually drifting off to trade around the 1.0700 levels but holding repeatedly above the 1.0680 levels before rising into the close towards the 1.0730 areas.
• GBP: A mixed day for the Cable with the market drifting from the opening around the 1.2815 levels to the 1.2800 levels and trading just below that level through to the grey hour, the market lifted in early buying into the London opening and held in the 1.2820 areas, the run to the numbers saw the market testing through the 1.2830 levels before quickly dropping off to the 1.2780 areas as the retail sales numbers disappointed, the move through to the NYK session slipping lower testing the 1.2760 level, the market then moved back to the 1.2800 levels before again dipping as the London session closed before putting in a last little recovery to the 1.2810 areas into the close.
• JPY: Early highs above the 109.40 areas was the last time we saw that level and the market slowly drifted through the day, the market moved through the Asian session along the 109.20 areas through to a slow attempt at the highs into the London opening, from then on it was a steady drift again through into the NYK session and slowly drifting towards the 108.90 levels before a small squeeze higher and closing just above the 109.10 levels.
• AUD: Opening around the 0.7530 level and declining into the Tokyo session to hold around the 0.7520 levels for a few hours, eventually returning to the opening levels in light trading, the move into London saw limited upside with the market trading around the 0.7535-40 areas with the move into the NYK session holding the 0.7545 areas and finishing the day in that area with limited trading through the day.

Yesterday’s premiership results

JPY         PMI Manufacturing Apr (P) A 52.8 | C 52.5 | P 52.4

JPY         Tertiary Industry Index M/M Feb A 0.20% | C 0.30% | P 0.00% | R -0.20%

EUR        France Manufacturing PMI Apr (P) A 55.1 | C 53.2 | P 53.3

EUR        France Services PMI Apr (P) A 57.7 | C 57.2 | P 57.5

EUR        Germany Manufacturing PMI Apr (P) A 58.2 | C 58.1 | P 58.3

EUR        Germany Services PMI Apr (P) A 54.7 | C 55.5 | P 55.6

EUR        Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Apr (P) A 56.8 | C 56.1 | P 56.2

EUR        Eurozone Services PMI Apr (P) A 56.2 | C 56 | P 56

EUR        Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Feb A 37.9B | C 26.3B | P 24.1B

GBP       Retail Sales M/M Mar A -1.80% | C -0.30% | P 1.40%

CAD       CPI M/M Mar A 0.20% | C 0.40% | P 0.20%

CAD       CPI Y/Y Mar A 1.60% | C 1.80% | P 2.00%

CAD       CPI Core – Trim Y/Y Mar A 1.40% | P 1.60%

CAD       CPI Core – Median Y/Y Mar A 1.70% | P 1.90%

CAD       CPI Core – Common Y/Y Mar A 1.30% | P 1.30%

USD       Manufacturing PMI Apr (P) A 52.8 | C 53.9 | P 53.3

USD       Services PMI Apr (P) A 52.5 | C 53.7 | P 52.8

USD       Existing Home Sales Mar A 5.71M | C 5.61M | P 5.48M

Stay lucky

Andy

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