Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 111.522 | EURUSD 1.08976 | AUDUSD 0.74889 | NZDUSD 0.68659 | USDCAD 1.36544 | USDCHF 0.99501 | GBPUSD 1.29489 |
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LMAX Ranges 6am London time
Highs   Lows
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.09112 | 1.08895
USDJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 111.755 | 111.212
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.29374 | 1.29047
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.74916 | 0.74746
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99650 | 0.9940
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.36750 | 1.36377
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.68786 | 0.68525
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.84392 | 0.84245
EURCHF Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.08533 | 1.08399
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 121.735 | 121.314
For today
- EUR: A quiet session overall with bank holidays around the world for May/Labour day, the Euros opened around the 1.0900 areas and moved to the 1.0910 levels in early trading before slipping back to base along the 1.0890 areas through into the grey hour and the potential for more of the same, Topside offers through the 1.0950 levels are likely to be reasonably strong with a push through the 1.0960 areas likely to see some weak stops however, stronger offers into the 1.1000 areas with possibly strong option barriers in the area and through to weak stops and break out stops. Downside bids light through to the 1.0850 areas with some congestion but a gap on the charts may attract attention and the market light into the 1.0800 areas with stops likely on a break through the level.
- GBP: Comments from PM May over the weekend saw a lower opening around the 1.2930 areas with the market attempting to fill the gap from the open and test to the highs just short of the 1.2950 areas before drifting through the Tokyo session to test to the 1.2905 areas and the limited supportive area. A push through the 1.2890 levels is likely to see some weak stops appearing with some limited congestion through the 1.2850 levels to the 1.2800 area and limited stops through there.
- JPY: USDJPY opening around the 111.40 areas and quickly moving lower through to the 111.20 areas as weekend news impacted on the market before recovering as weaker manufacturing PMI numbers hit and the market quickly moving back to the 111.50 areas, weak stops through the level saw the market quickly touching the highs just off the 111.75 levels before quietly moving through the balance of the session around the 111.60-65. Topside offers into the 111.80-112.00 areas with stops likely through the 112.20 levels and limited congestion through the 112.50 areas likely to cause the market to struggle on any move higher however, a push through the level quickly leaves the 113.00 vulnerable. Downside bids likely to be weak through to the 111.00 areas with congestion in the area however, a push through 110.80 areas will likely see weak stops opening the downside to further pressure with sentimental 110.00 levels likely to be strong.
- AUD: Opening lower around the 0.7475 areas the market quickly recovered to fill the back and test through the 0.7490 areas into the Tokyo session before drifting through to the grey hour around the 0.7480 level, Topside offers into the 75 cent areas, with limited stops and congestive offers likely to dominate the market through the topside however, strong into the 0.7540-60 areas limit the topside, Downside bids into the 0.7460-40 areas with strong stops likely through the level however, 74 cent is likely to be just as difficult as the previous levels we’ve seen over the past few months.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
USD:
Congress negotiators reach tentative deal on $ 1T spending bill
US Congressional reach deal to fund government through Sep, according to Aides
Full house and Senate still must approve Senior Aide
NSA advisor McMaster stresses preference for non-military resolution of issues
US to probe Japanese, German automakers over alleged patent violations
JPY/USD:
Japan issues 1st order to protect US ships amid N.Korea tension
NZD:
Lending to investors fall 32% YoY to NZ$1.58B, rises from NZ$1.15B in Feb
NZ March new residential mortgage lending falls 8.9% YoY RBNZ
Treasury expects inflation to hold near 2% over 2017
GBP/EUR:
PM May renew threat to walk away from EU without a deal
AUD/CNY:
Chinese investment in Australia surges 11.7% as deals hit record
AUD:
Oz stimulus signal gives RBA even stronger case to stand pat
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing PMI Apr (F) A 52.7 | C 52.8 | P 52.8
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â TD Securities Inflation M/M Apr A 0.50% | P 0.10%
07:15Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales (Real) Y/Y Mar C 0.50% | P 0.60%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Personal Income Mar C 0.30% | P 0.40%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Personal Spending Mar C 0.20% | P 0.10%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Deflator M/M Mar P 0.10%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Deflator Y/Y Mar P 2.10%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Core M/M Mar C -0.10% | P 0.20%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Core Y/Y Mar P 1.80%
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Manufacturing Apr C 56.7 | P 57.2
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Prices Paid Apr C 66.5 | P 70.5
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction Spending M/M Mar C 0.40% | P 0.80%
Weekend News
USD:
White House said to expect health care vote by Weds Politico
Trump says N.Korea’s Kim is a pretty smart cookie
Trump says China could have hacked Democratic emails
CNY:
China manufacturing gauge declines from almost five year high
April manufacturing PMI dips to 51.2
JPY:
Japan’s labour shortage prompts grudging turn to permanent jobs
EUR/TRY:
France, Germany want new Turkey ties but dodge EU membership
EUR:
Le Pen win in France would mean end of EU as we know it German minister
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A quiet move through the Asian session with the market slipping from the opening just above the 1.0870 areas to base along the 1.0870 areas, the move into the London session saw the Euro moving steadily higher with a mix of numbers dominated by a better retail sales number, and then a better Eurozone CPI number sending the market quickly towards the 1.0950 areas and holding in the area for the move into the NYK session, a rise in the Employment cost index saw the USD starting a steady rise with limited movement and the Euro dipping back to the 1.0890 levels into the London close, a quiet finish to the close with the4 market holding around the 1.0900 the to the end.
- GBP: Cable traded to its lows in the Tokyo session dipping to the 1.2890 areas before rising back through the 1.2900 areas and the opening levels to push to the 1.2915 level, the move into London session saw the market initially testing again to the lows before rallying sharply through to the 1.2940 areas only to range around the 1.2940-50 areas into the NYK session before dropping on the US numbers to test back to the opening levels around 1.2905 and bouncing around a little before heading back higher again as S&P affirmed the AA/A1+ rating to take the market through to the 1.2965 areas with limited stops trading into the level, the market having hit the highs slipped back a little to the 1.2950 areas for the a quiet close.
- JPY: A quiet move through the Asian session with the USDJPY slipping back from early gains to the 111.35 areas to test through the 111.10 levels before holding quietly through to the grey hour, early buyers started taking the market higher with the market running through early London to the 111.50 areas before holding quietly through to the NYK session to test quickly to the 111.70 level before drifting through the balance of the session trading in the 111.40-50 level to the close.
- AUD: Even with the US numbers the range was limited with the Oz opening around the 0.7465-70 areas and gradually ranging higher through the sessio0n to push into the London session pushing the 0.7485 level before dipping back to the opening levels on a move through to the NYK session, sellers into the session saw the market drop back on the US numbers only to rally sharply before the close in London to reclaim the meagre gains and test to the 0.7490 areas into the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits M/M Mar A -1.80% | P 14.00% | R 17.20%
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (NZD) Mar A 332M | C 375M | P -18M | R -50M
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GfK Consumer Confidence Apr A -7 | C -7 | P -6
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Jobless Rate Mar A 2.80% | C 2.90% | P 2.80%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Household Spending Y/Y Mar A -1.30% | C -0.50% | P -3.80%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â National CPI Core Y/Y Mar A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.20%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Apr A -0.10% | C -0.20% | P -0.40%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Trade Y/Y Mar A 2.10% | C 1.50% | P 0.10% | R 0.20%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Mar (P) A -2.10% | C -0.80% | P 3.20%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Q/Q Q1 A 0.50% | C 0.30% | P 0.50%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Y/Y Mar A 0.20% | C -2.60% | P -2.60%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â French GDP Q/Q Q1 (A) A 0.30% | C 0.40% | P 0.40%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Retail Sales M/M Mar A 0.10% | C 0.00% | P 1.80% | R 1.10%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Import Price Index M/M Mar A -0.50% | C -0.10% | P 0.70%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â KOF Leading Indicator Apr A 106 | C 107.5 | P 107.6 | R 107.2
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone M3 Y/Y Mar A 5.30% | C 4.70% | P 4.70%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BBA Mortgage Approvals Mar A 41.1K | C 42.1K | P 42.6K | R 42.2K
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q1 (A) A 0.30% | C 0.40% | P 0.70%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Index of Services 3M/3M Feb A 0.50% | C 0.50% | P 0.60%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Apr A 1.90% | C 1.80% | P 1.50%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI – Core Y/Y Apr (A) A 1.20% | C 1.00% | P 0.70%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP M/M Feb A 0.00% | C 0.10% | P 0.60%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Product Price M/M Mar A 0.80% | C 0.30% | P 0.10% | R 0.30%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Raw Materials Price Index M/M Mar A -1.60% | C -0.40% | P 1.20% | R 1.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP (Annualized) Q1 (A) A 0.70% | C 1.10% | P 2.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Price Index Q1 (A) A 2.30% | C 2.00% | P 2.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Cost Index Q1 A 0.80% | C 0.60% | P 0.50%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Chicago PMI Apr A 58.3 | C 56.7 | P 57.7
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â U. of Michigan Confidence Apr (F) A 97 | C 98 | P 98
Stay lucky
Andy
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