Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 111.993 | EURUSD 1.09316 | AUDUSD 0.75358 | NZDUSD 0.6937 | USDCAD 1.37086 | USDCHF 0.99156 | GBPUSD 1.29389 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.09369 | 1.09259
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 112.074 | 111.97
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.29479 | 1.29067
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99185 | 0.99089
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.75461 | 0.75003
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.37298 | 1.37027
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.69688 | 0.69333
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.08389 | 1.08351
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.84707 | 0.84431
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 122.563 | 122.40
For Today
- EUR: With the bulk of the Asian market on holiday the Euro ranged in a very narrow range with the market pushing from the 1.0930 areas to just above the 1.0935 level and through the session ranging around that level till late in the session dipping back to the opening area for the move into the grey hour, Topside offers are still dominated by this 1.0940-60 areas with a possibility of weak stops just beyond however, with the chance of option barriers and offers into the 1.1000 areas the market is likely to struggle again through the level with congestive offers mixed through to the 1.1100 level, Downside bids light through the 1.0900 level with limited bids on a move through to the stronger 1.0800-20 areas and possible stops on a dip through the level with congestion into the 1.0750 areas.
- GBP: Opening around the 1.2940 levels the market pushed lightly towards the 1.2950 areas and ran through the session until close to the grey hour when the market turned lower to the 1.2930 level with little other than the front page of the FT to go by and the call by the EU for even more money, it would seem that interference in UK politics, moving the goals around is not likely to settle down with negotiations starting in the near future, of course PM May seems to be not invited and my observations about how childish it is may not go far enough, Topside offers into the 1.2950 levels with the possibility of option barriers just above and would explain the current difficulties with the level that has little technical interest, a push through will leave the 1.3000 vulnerable with some offers likely into the area and 1.3050 becoming a target for the market. Downside bids light through the 1.2900 areas however, a stubborn level over the past few days whether because of weaker volume or strong interest remains to be seen however, a push through to test towards the 1.2800 levels could see the market dropping quickly back with stronger interest likely into the mid 1.2750 areas and patchy above that level.
- JPY: A very quiet day for the USDJPY as Japan takes a break for Golden week, moving from the 112.00 level to test above the 112.05 areas and back again saw the range less than 10 pips with the 112.00 level the centre of business for the day, Topside offers light into the 112.30 areas and likely to increase into the 112.50 areas however, given the lack of interest one would suspect that the level has plenty of waiting offers just in case it could get there with weak stops on a move through for a quick test to 113.00 areas and strong waiting offers, Downside bids light through to the 111.50 levels and congesting from there too the stronger 111.00 areas however, it would have to be a USD move on the day.
- AUD: The Oz was the biggest mover on the day with the market making steady headway into the Tokyo session and pushing to the 0.7545 levels again before slumping from early in the session with the market concerned with the booming house prices and the inability to burst the bubble, with very little to drive the market the push lower met little support until testing the 75 cent areas with a brief stab at the level quickly absorbed and the market moving back to hold the 0.7510 areas into the grey hour, Downside bids into the 75 cent level is obvious with the bids likely to continue through the 0.7480 areas with the possibility of stronger bids into the level and then increasing into the 0.7440-60 areas before any real stops are likely to appear on a break through the level however, 74 cent is likely to be a similar pattern of bids in and through the level with 0.7350 likely to be a tougher level to push through on the out chance of some movement.
Overnight News
USD:
US Senate confirms Jay Clayton as new SEC chief
US Fed not likely to move rates amid tepid inflation
US car sale slip significantly in April
NZD:
NZ Q1 unemployment falls but wage growth remains tepid
IMF:
IMF Says still need credible debt relief for Greece
USD/RUB:
Trump, Putin discuss first meeting, Syria during very good call
EUR/GBP:
EU wants £100B for breach of no contract
UK PM May is not allowed to take part in negotiations – FT
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Q1 A 4.90% | C 5.10% | P 5.20%
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Change Q/Q Q1 A 1.20% | C 0.80% | P 0.80% | R 0.70%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Apr A -0.50% | P -0.80%
07:55Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â German Unemployment Change Apr C -10K | P -30K
07:55Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â German Unemployment Rate Apr C 5.80% | P 5.80%
08:30Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction PMI Apr C 52.1 | P 52.2
09:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PPI M/M Mar C 0.10% | P 0.00%
09:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PPI Y/Y Mar C 4.30% | P 4.50%
09:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q1 (A) C 0.50% | P 0.40%
12:15Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ADP Employment Change Apr C 178K | P 263K
14:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Services/Non-Manufacturing Composite Apr C 55.9 | P 55.2
14:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories P -3.6M
18:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â FOMC Rate Decision C 1.00% | P 1.00%
Â
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: Limited volume as the market moves from one Bank holiday and into the next, Opening around the 1.0900 level the market eased into the Tokyo session pushing through the 1.0910 levels in limited volumes, the move through the bulk of the Tokyo trading session saw the market ranging tightly around the level before starting a slow rise into the grey hours to test through to the 1.0925 level, London was a dull affair with mixed PMI numbers doing little and the market ranging through into the NYK session, with very little in the way of data the limited movements were around Le Pen comments on Frexit, and ECB Public intervention needed in solving bad debt problem, or more from the UK Brexit negotiations. Euro’s dipped through the 1.0900 levels testing to the 1.0890 areas before reversing and steadily climbing to the close around the 1.0930 level and the highs for the day.
- GBP: Quiet through the Asian session with the market moving up from the 1.2885 opening level to gradually push back through the 1.2900 areas and trade through to the grey hours holding around that level, the move into the London session saw the market drop back to the 1.2870 areas and holding into the PMI manufacturing number around that level, the release saw the Cable move through to the 1.2930 areas before rising slowly through the day to finish quietly on the highs around 1.2940.
- JPY: USDJPY opened just below the 111.85 areas and pushed into the 111.95 areas into early Tokyo before dipping back to make the days lows just through the 111.80 area, the move through the rest of Tokyo saw the market unable to push beyond the 112.00 level and the move into the grey hours saw the market rising to the figure area and the move into London saw the market push through for a limited run to the 112.10 level and then continuing slowly through into London mid-morning testing the 112.30 area before moving into NYK and slowly drifting back to the 112.00 areas for the close.
- AUD: The range for the Oz was a little stronger than most of the pairs however, that does have to be taken into context, opening around the 0.7525 levels saw the market moving quietly into the Tokyo session and rising through to the 0.7545 areas for the run to the RBA decision, as expected there was no change and the market rose to the 0.7555 levels before drifting through to the London session holding the opening levels, the move through to midmorning in London saw the market drifting off and testing down to the 0.7510 levels into the NYK session, the market from then on saw the market moving back to the 0.7535 in a slow rise.
Yesterday’s premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â BOJ Minutes of March 15-16 Meeting
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Monetary Base Y/Y Apr A 19.80% | C 21.20% | P 20.30%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Caixin Manufacturing PMI Apr A 50.3 | C 51.4 | P 51.2
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â RBA Rate Decision A 1.50% | C 1.50% | P 1.50%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â SVME PMI Apr A 57.4 | C 58.2 | P 58.6
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Italy Manufacturing PMI Apr A 56.2 | C 55.9 | P 55.7
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â France Manufacturing PMI Apr (F) A 55.1 | C 55.1 | P 55.1
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Germany Manufacturing PMI Apr (F) A 58.2 | C 58.2 | P 58.2
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Apr (F) A 56.7 | C 56.8 | P 56.8
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing SA Apr A 57.3 | C 54 | P 54.2
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Unemployment Rate Mar A 9.50% | C 9.40% | P 9.50%
Good Luck,
Andy
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.
LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.
Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.
If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.