Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 112.759 | EURUSD 1.08856 | AUDUSD 0.74224 | NZDUSD 0.68776 | USDCAD 1.37303 | USDCHF 0.99479 | GBPUSD 1.28671 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.08971 | 1.08812
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 112.894 | 112.681
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.28785 | 1.28654
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99489 | 0.99398
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.74303 | 0.74067
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.37362 | 1.37114
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.68932 | 0.6880
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.08360 | 1.08222
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.84633 | 0.84562
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 122.955 | 122.683
For Today
- EUR: With Tokyo closed the market was quiet through the session with the Euro slowly rising from the opening around the 1.0885 areas and just off the lows, the market moved through the session to test above the 1.0895 to move into the grey hour, Topside offers light through the 1.0900 areas and becoming stronger on a move through the 1.0940 areas, with a push through the area the market could see some limited weak stops building before testing towards possible option barriers into the 1.1000 level, a move through level could see stronger stops appearing however, movement into a more congestive area will likely depend on gamma/delta traders covering and a bit of a two way battle, with the 1.1080 level then becomes vulnerable with the market then seeing a wide range through the level. Downside bids light through to the 1.0840-60 areas however, stronger bids into the 1.0810-00 areas are likely to see the market slowing on a move lower but becoming susceptible to stronger stops through the 1.0800 areas and opening further downside risk.
- GBP: A very limited market with the Cable barely moving, opening around the 1.2870 areas testing early in the session to below the 1.2865 areas and pushing then holding just above the 1.2875 level to the grey hours with the media calm on both sides of the Channel. Topside offers light through to the 1.2950 areas where stronger offers are present with possible option barriers into the 1.3000 areas with stops likely on a push through both the 1.2950 area and 1.3000 with a push through the last level seeing stronger possibilities for a rise through to congestion into 1.3050 areas. Downside bids light through to the 1.2850 areas with some stubborn bids likely and the limited bids into 1.2800 areas, any weak stops are likely to be absorbed into the 1.2760-50 areas before further weakness opens a return to the 1.26 handle.
- JPY: Having opened around the 112.70 levels the market struggled to capitalize on yesterday’s gains however, with Tokyo out that is not so surprising and the market held the 112.60 on the move through to test the 112.90 areas before drifting slowly back towards the opening levels. Topside offers possibly stronger with congestive offers and possibly resting offers from exporters from the 113.00 level through to the 113.30 areas, through the level is likely to see some weak stops with some limited congestion before opening to the 113.80-00 areas and another round of strong offers. Downside bids light through to the 112.00-111.80 levels with possibly limited stops with the strong level likely to be around the 111.50 areas and congestive beyond.
- AUD: The OZ again tested a little lower in a quiet session briefly testing through the 0.7410 areas only to rise back towards the 0.7420 areas, a limited attempt to the topside in early trading saw the lacklustre push to the 0.7430 fail and a limited range defined. Topside offers are likely to be light on a move back through the 0.7450 areas with stronger offers limited until a push against the 75 cent areas with limited stops and space. Downside bids are congestive for the most part with some support into the 74 cent level likely to give way easily to a push towards the 0.7350 areas, and while the market may see some strength in the areas the 73 cent level is beginning to look vulnerable for the medium term.
Overnight News
USD:
Passage of Bill clears $1.1T funding however, it excludes some of Trumps priorities
USD moves higher after Fed keeps door open to June hike
Trump gains traction on healthcare bill, vote set for today
USD/AUD:
Trump, Turnbull to hit reset in NYK after fractious phone call
AUD:
Oz slips to 4 month low.
Lowe: We shouldn’t expect interest rates to always be low
Lowe: Australian banks are resilient to house price movements
Lowe: RBA strongly supports recent APRA prudential measures
CNY:
Large Chinese banks asked to launch inclusive finance units: Xinhua
China urges all side in N.Korea standoff to stop irritating one another
Caixin PMI services weakest since May 2016 after 4th month of decline
EUR:
Macron, Le Pen clash on euro, terrorism, in French pre-election TV showdown
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (AUD) Mar A 3.11B | C 3.33B | P 3.57B
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Caixin China PMI Services Apr A 51.5 | C 52.6 | P 52.2
05:45Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â SECO Consumer Confidence Apr C 3 | P -3
07:45Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Italy Services PMI Apr C 53.7 | P 52.9
07:50Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â France Services PMI Apr (F) C 57.7 | P 57.7
07:55Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Germany Services PMI Apr (F) C 54.7 | P 54.7
08:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services PMI Apr (F) C 56.2 | P 56.2
08:30Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Services PMI Apr C 54.6 | P 55
08:30Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Mortgage Approvals Mar C 67K | P 68K
08:30Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â M4 Money Supply M/M Mar C 0.20% | P -0.30%
09:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Mar C 0.10% | P 0.70%
11:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Apr P -2.00%
12:30Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â International Merchandise Trade (CAD) Mar C 0.3B | P -1.0B
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Non-Farm Productivity Q1 (P) C 0.00% | P 1.30%
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unit Labour Costs Q1 (P) C 2.60% | P 1.70%
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance Mar C -44.9B | P -43.6B
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (29 APR) C 246K | P 257K
14:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Factory Orders Mar C 0.60% | P 1.00%
14:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P 74B
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A stronger USD over the course of the day however, EU officials had their moments in early comments to the market, with early trading in an Asian market hit by bank holidays in several countries the volumes as you’d expect were cut, Euro managed a slow rise from the opening 1.0925 level to test through the 1.0935 areas, as the Europeans opened media snippets caused the market in both Euro and Cable to dip lower with both sides being attributed with comments. However, in the great scheme of things the move into the 1.0910 areas after such a tight range through Asia, the move through into the London session saw the market holding around the 1.0910 areas and while the range improved the market held through to the Fed announcement around the level and unable to push below the 1.0900 area and unable to push beyond the 1.0925 level. The Fed release was as expected with no change, the post meeting statement acknowledged recent disappointments in growth and inflation but for the time being they pushed forward the more favourable aspects of the economy to leave the June meeting open for a hike. The market reacted pushing with the Euro pushing to the 1.0925 levels before dropping back to the 1.0900 areas struggling for a period before following through to test to the close around the 1.0885 levels.
- GBP: Cable edged higher into the Tokyo session pushing through towards the 1.2950 levels before the commentary and media reports of €100 mio EU divorce settlement, PM May being barred from negotiations and the flip side with Davis saying we will just walk away and so on, for the moment both sides will demand this and that but until they actually sit down and face each other it is all likely to be sound bites before settling down to more reasonable chatter, Cable dropped away from the highs into the grey hour and continued through to some minor support to push through the 1.2900 level for the first time before recovering on better PMI numbers to hold around the 1.2920 levels through to the NYK session dipping again through the 1.2900 levels before dropping again on the Fed announcement, the market quickly tested to the 1.2880 areas before drifting to a close around the 1.2870 areas.
- JPY: With the Asian region on holiday for the most part the move through the Tokyo session or what should have been saw the market in a tight range moving between the 112.00-10 level through to the grey hour, while London saw an improvement through to the 112.20 levels before holding quietly through to the NYK opening, the market initially dipped a little before moving steadily through to test the 112.50 levels, the market then held in the 112.30-40 areas through to the Fed announcement before quickly pushing through the level to push through the 112.60 level and hold quietly into the last hour where the market pushed a little into the close.
- AUD: The move through the Asian session saw the Oz rising slightly from the opening towards the 0.7550 area before drifting lower with the rising USD through the day added to current economic worries the fall was in a tight channel with the market finding little in the way of support until the 0.7450 level, of course with the Fed announcement released even this support melted away however, the market while dropping back to the 0.7420 areas for the run to the close was orderly and the impact on the Oz from the Fed was limited at best.
Yesterday’s premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Q1 A 4.90% | C 5.10% | P 5.20%
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Change Q/Q Q1 A 1.20% | C 0.80% | P 0.80% | R 0.70%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Apr A -0.50% | P -0.80%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â German Unemployment Change Apr A -15K | C -10K | P -30K | R -29K
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â German Unemployment Rate Apr A 5.80% | C 5.80% | P 5.80%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction PMI Apr A 53.1 | C 52.1 | P 52.2
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PPI M/M Mar A -0.30% | C 0.10% | P 0.00%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PPI Y/Y Mar A 3.90% | C 4.30% | P 4.50%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q1 (A) A | C 0.50% | P 0.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ADP Employment Change Apr A 177K | C 178K | P 263K | R 255K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Services/Non-Manufacturing Composite Apr A | C 55.9 | P 55.2
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A | C | P -3.6M
USD      FOMC Rate Decision  A | C 1.00% | P 1.00%
Good Luck,
Andy
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