Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 112.467 | EURUSD 1.09841 | AUDUSD 0.74092 | NZDUSD 0.68558 | USDCAD 1.37505 | USDCHF 0.98632 | GBPUSD 1.29243 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.09900 | 1.09732
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 112.656 | 112.152
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.29267 | 1.29006
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.98704 | 0.98594
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.74153 | 0.7372
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.37920 | 1.37496
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.68877 | 0.68619
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.08406 | 1.08262
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.85088 | 0.84929
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 123.675 | 123.212
For Today
- EUR: Another quiet day in paradise with the Euro moving quietly through the Asian session holding around the 1.0980 areas through to the grey hour, testing towards the 1.0990 in light trading in the currencies, with the better mover on the day being the Oil products as the WTI tipped through the 45.50 levels to hit 44.00 quickly. Topside offers into the 1.1000 still hold with possible light stops through the level and a question of what happens when the options are done, whether the buyers or sellers will win in the aftermath however, congestion likely through the level with o0ffers building on a push through the 1.1050 areas and continuing into the 1.1080 levels with possibly stronger offers appearing through to the 1.1100 level. Downside bids light through to the 1.0900 areas with possible weak stops on a push back through the 1.0940 level, but not strong enough to push through the bids on there own, NFP is the number to watch a strong number here could see the Euro forced through the 1.0900 levels and opening the market to congestion on the 1.08 handle.
- GBP: Opening around the 1.2920 level and moved through the market holding that level in a very tight range with the market unable to really push higher, midsession saw the Cable drop back quickly in what looked like a single ticket move with the market testing to the 1.2900 levels before moving slowly back to the 1.2920 areas and held through in the 1.2910-20 to the grey hour. Topside offers into the 1.2950 areas with strong stops likely through the level and the 1.3000 likely to be weak option barriers for a test through to the 1.3050 levels and strong offers a possibility. Downside bids light through to the 1.2850 areas with the market likely to see some congestion in the area on a move through to the 1.2800 bids with possibly strong levels, a move through the level will likely to see some weak stops and the next support line into the 1.2760-70 level.
- JPY: USDJPY opened quietly pushing slowly through to the 112.65 areas before holding around the 112.60 area into the fall of Oil, USDJPY dropped with the movement with the pair hitting the 112.20 areas quickly before holding through to the grey hours around the lows. Topside offers light through to the 113.00 and still a Japanese holiday with the market likely to be dominated with resting orders from real money on both sides of the market, a push through the level will likely see strong congestion into the 113.50 areas with stronger offers beyond, downside bids light through the 112.00 levels with a push through the 111.80 areas likely to wee some weak stops before congestive bids into the 111.50 areas.
- AUD: Holding quietly through from the opening the market started to drift once the RBA’s statement showing very little difference to previous ones, with forecasts left largely unchanged apart from GDP growth adjusted 25bp higher, Oz then started a steady drift lower through to the 0.7370 areas before holding through to the grey hours, Downside bids through the 0.7340-60 areas with some congestion continuing into a stronger 73 cent level with further strong bids likely on a move through the sentimental levels. With each 50 pips likely to be stronger than last.
Overnight News
OIL:
OPEC driven gain wiped out as shale boom offsets cuts
EUR:
German FinMin: No Debt relief being prepped for Greece
USD/AUD:
Trump meets Turnbull, says spat all worked out
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBA Statement on Monetary Policy
07:00Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Foreign Currency Reserves Apr P 683B
08:10Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Retail PMI Apr P 49.5
12:30Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net Change in Employment Apr C 20.0K | P 19.4K
12:30Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Apr C 6.70% | P 6.70%
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Change in Non-farm Payrolls Apr C 180K | P 98K
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Apr C 4.60% | P 4.50%
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Average Hourly Earnings M/M Apr C 0.30% | P 0.20%
14:00Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Ivey PMI Apr C 62.3 | P 61.1
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A quiet day through the Asian session with Japan still out and the market trading quietly around the 1.0890 levels in a very tight range, the move into the grey hour saw the market dip to test through the 1.0880 levels before recovering as the PMI numbers started to hit the market in London, and for a change all healthy numbers and the Euro moved up through the 1.0900 areas triggering some weak stops on a move to the 1.0920 areas before struggling through into the NYK session rising to 1.0930, the move into NYK saw further buying appearing and the market struggled through to the London close pushing the 1.0950 levels, and popping through to the 1.0970 levels on weak stops before holding quietly for several hours around the 1.09.70 levels, the move to the close saw the market rising a little and testing through the 1.0980 areas before closing just of the highs.
- GBP: Opening around the 1.2870 levels the market barely moved inching up from the lows in 1.2865 area to test to the 1.2880 into the grey hour, with Europeans rolling out the red carpet for London’s banks it would seem that all fair in love and war where the Europeans are concerned this it would seem saw the Cable dropping sharply into the London opening to test the 1.2830 areas before bouncing off the lows as the Services PMI came in stronger than expected as with the Europeans and the Cable traded quickly back to the 1.2900 levels struggling through into the NYK session with the 1.2905 level before pushing through slowly to range around the 1.2920 level into the close having touched the 1.2930 level to create the high.
- JPY: Bank Holiday blues saw the Asian session push towards the 113.00 levels however, it struggled for impetus and held around the 112.80-90 levels through to the London session, the market dipped through to the 112.65 area lows again before rising steadily to the 113.00 levels struggling for traction as resting offers held the market, there was a second attempt during the NYK session with the same result the highs into the 113.05 area before starting a steady drop back with the US numbers seeing a drop in factory orders, the market tested through the lows and opening level and triggered weak stops to the 112.50 areas, the market struggled through the level and slowed to a range between the 112.35-50 areas finishing the day just short of the 112.50.
- AUD: A dull day for the Oz and a slow but steady decline through the 74 cent levels, concern about the housing bubble and weakening commodity prices the market opened around the 0.7425 levels with the market drifting from the 0.7430 areas and holding through the Asian session to move into the London session testing the 74 cent level, the move into the NYK saw the market again testing the lows and slowly pushing to the 0.7385 areas before recovering into the close to the 0.7410 level.
Yesterday’s premiership results
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (AUD) Mar A 3.11B | C 3.33B | P 3.57B
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Caixin China PMI Services Apr A 51.5 | C 52.6 | P 52.2
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â SECO Consumer Confidence Apr A -8 | C 3 | P -3
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Italy Services PMI Apr A 56.2 | C 53.7 | P 52.9
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â France Services PMI Apr (F) A 56.7 | C 57.7 | P 57.7
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Germany Services PMI Apr (F) A 55.4 | C 54.7 | P 54.7
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services PMI Apr (F) A 56.4 | C 56.2 | P 56.2
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Services PMI Apr A 55.8 | C 54.6 | P 55
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Mortgage Approvals Mar A 67K | C 67K | P 68K
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â M4 Money Supply M/M Mar A 0.30% | C 0.20% | P -0.30% | R -0.20%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Mar A 0.30% | C 0.10% | P 0.70%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Apr A -42.90% | P -2.00%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â International Merchandise Trade (CAD) Mar A -0.1B | C 0.3B | P -1.0B | R -1.1B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Non-Farm Productivity Q1 (P) A -0.60% | C 0.00% | P 1.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unit Labour Costs Q1 (P) A 3.00% | C 2.60% | P 1.70%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance Mar A -43.7B | C -44.9B | P -43.6B | R -43.8B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (29 APR) A 238K | C 246K | P 257K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Factory Orders Mar A 0.20% | C 0.60% | P 1.00% | R 1.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A 67B | C 70B | P 74B
Good Luck,
Andy
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