Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 113.986 | EURUSD 1.08745 | AUDUSD 0.7344 | NZDUSD 0.68891 | USDCAD 1.3719 | USDCHF 1.00746 | GBPUSD 1.29356 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.08980 | 1.08775
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 114.016 | 113.627
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.29586 | 1.29408
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.00736 | 1.00636
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.73698 | 0.73391
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.37186 | 1.3702
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.69096 | 0.6890
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.09694 | 1.09556
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.84164 | 0.84015
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 124.141 | 123.748
For Today
- EUR: News that Trump fired the FBI director was enough to send the USD steadily lower through the session with the market moving off the 1.0875 level opening to test into the mid 1.0890 areas however having made the level in the first two hours of the Tokyo session it was unable to push through the area and traded in a tight range through to the grey hour, Light offers through the 1.0900 areas and likely to continue through into the 1.0950 areas where the market is likely to see stronger offers starting to filter into the market a drive through to the 1.1000 areas will see those offers possibly increasing with no sight of real stops until the market pushes through the 1.1020 levels while the market is likely to look congestive I wouldn’t be surprised to see the market backing away towards the 1.1080 levels for the stronger offers. Downside bids light through to the 1.0860 areas with light congestion then continuing through to the 1.0840 areas with stops likely through the areas and the 1.0800 level becoming vulnerable quickly with some bids likely through the level however, if the market is moving quickly the downside could see stronger losses.
- GBP: Cable rose from the opening around the 1.2935 areas to move into a range around the 1.2950 areas trading for the most part in a 10 pip range through to the grey hour, Downside bids light through to the 1.2900-05 areas with bids likely to be building in the area however a push through the level will see weak stops appearing and the market limited until the 1.2850 areas and stronger congestion through that level to the 1.2800 areas. Topside offers through to the 1.2990-1.3000 have held for several days so any move would have to be strong to push through and into weak stops above, however, while the sentimental 1.3000 level is strong it likely to be stronger into the 1.3050 areas and top pickers could possibly make an appearance.
- JPY: The early pullback for the USD saw USDJPY slipping back to the 113.70 areas with minor forays into the 113.60 level having opened around the 114.00 areas, limited movement from the BoJ summary and only the Trumps sacking of Comey moving the market however volumes were reasonable if limited in movement. Topside offers through the 114.00 areas around the 114.50 areas are likely to be fairly strong and only once through the 114.60 level will the weak stops become more evident however, that still sees congestion on a move to the 115.00 level and the usual strong offers through to 115.20, a push beyond the 115.50-60 areas will likely open up the ranges from the beginning of the year. Downside bids light through to the 113.30-00 level however, the rise while being steady through the past few weeks will likely see a break here opening up a quick move back to the 112.00 areas with weak stops all the way down into that level.
- AUD: USD weakness saw the Oz eventually catching up with the early movement, from the 0.7340 areas the USDJPY selling impacted the early session with the AUDJPY falling back with the USDJPY movement eventually the Oz started to react to the weakness of the USD and moved quietly from the opening lows to test the 0.7370 areas in to the grey hour, Topside offers probably building into the 74 cent level with limited congestion through the level and weak stops possibly dominating the market into the 0.7440 level, stronger stops from that point through to 0.7460 before light congestion through to 75 cent. Downside bids into the 0.7330 level possibly light with supportive bids into the 73 cent levels, a push through this level will likely see stops appearing as the market pushes to test the resolve of bids below the 0.7250 areas and into the 72 cent areas and the ranges from late last year.
Overnight News
Oil:
Oil falls as concern grows over battle of Opec vs. US shale
USD:
USD dips as Trump fires FBI director Comey
Trump delays decision on Paris climate deal
US will aggressively enforce trade rules Ross
Flynn (National security advisor) associates subpoenaed in Russia probe CNN
CNY:
CPI slows more than expected.
KRW:
N.Korean ambassador says will proceed with Nuclear Test Sky
EUR:
Schaeuble German FinMin: Normalization of ECB policy to start shortly
TRY:
Turkish Lira may slump further after Trump is said to arm Kurds
JPY:
BoJ’s Kuroda: Not thinking now about how to change BoJ’s policy mix
BoJ: Overseas risks warrant current policy
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â BOJ Summary of Opinions at April 26-27 Meeting
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Apr A 1.20% | C 1.10% | P 0.90%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Y/Y Apr A 6.40% | C 6.70% | P 7.60%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Leading Index Mar (P) A 105.5 | C 105.5 | P 104.8 | R 104.7
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Import Price Index M/M Apr C 0.20% | P -0.20%
14:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories P -0.9M
18:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Monthly Budget Statement Apr P -176.2B
21:00Â Â Â NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBNZ Rate Decision C 1.75% | P 1.75%
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: Opening around the 1.0920 levels the market held in a tight range through the Asian session with the market unable to push through the 1.0935 areas and testing the 1.0920 areas, the move into the grey hours saw the market starting to sleep and while the German IP numbers were better than expected the dip in the German trade deficit saw the market dipping towards the 1.0900 areas, the market did bounce a little however, the market could not push through the opening levels and started a steady slip lower through to the NYK session testing to the 1.0875 levels, the market then managed to range through the session between the low and 1.0900 areas with the last push lower deep into the session to test the 1.0865 areas with light stops cleared the market again moved back to the 1.0875 area for the close.
- GBP: Cable opened around the 1.2940 levels and slowly rose to the 1.2950 areas with a range around the level through to the London session, EURGBP buying as Euro dropped saw the GBP drop with limited interest until the market pushed into the 1.2900 areas for the move into the NYK session, while the Euro continued to fall the GBP was bought through early NYK with the market pushing back through the 1.2950 areas before ranging in a 1.2925-45 range to the close.
- JPY: USDJPY was fairly quiet through the Asian session however, once the market moved into the London session a steady tight channelled rally begin with the early 113.20-40 ranges from Asia broken in early London with the market pushing through to the 113.90 levels with the 114.00 level broken quickly but limited by offers the market pushed to the 114.30 level.
- AUD: Moving from the opening levels the Oz tried a steady move towards the 74 cent levels just before the release of the Retail sales numbers dropping quickly back from the highs the market tested to the 0.7370 areas on the poor number, the move through to the London session saw the market drifting through to test the 0.7335 areas before spending the rest of the day holding the 0.7330-65 range to the close with the centre being more around the 0.7350 area.
Yesterday’s premiership results
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BRC Retail Sales Monitor Y/Y Apr A 5.60% | C 0.50% | P -1.00%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Labour Cash Earnings Y/Y Mar A -0.40% | C 0.40% | P 0.40%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Mar A 0.10% | C 0.30% | P -0.10%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Apr A 3.30% | C 3.30% | P 3.40%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â German Industrial Production M/M Mar A -0.40% | C -0.70% | P 2.20%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â German Trade Balance (EUR) Mar A 19.6B | C 21.7B | P 21.0B
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits M/M Mar A -5.80% | C 4.20% | P -2.50% | R 2.80%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Inventories Mar (F) A 0.2% | C -0.10% | P -0.10%
Good Luck,
Andy
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