Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 113.863 | EURUSD 1.08611 | AUDUSD 0.73788 | NZDUSD 0.68528 | USDCAD 1.36966 | USDCHF 1.00783 | GBPUSD 1.28869 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.08738 | 1.08602
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 113.953 | 113.637
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.29000 | 1.28757
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.00812 | 1.00723
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.73884 | 0.7369
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.37097 | 1.36874
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.68473 | 0.68268
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.09540 | 1.09446
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.84392 | 0.84250
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 123.783 | 123.539
For Today
- EUR: Opening around the 1.0863 areas the market ranged through into the Tokyo period, the market slowly push higher testing above the 1.0870 levels before holding around that level through into the grey hour, Topside offers likely to be light into the 1.0900 areas and a push through the level will see the market open up for further gains with weak stops through the 1.0920 areas before some congestion into 1.0940-60 level with better offers into the topside of that range, better offers then start to appear on a move towards the 1.1000 areas with a possibility of option plays still to be cleared. Downside bids into the 1.0850-40 areas still hold the market before the market sees possible weak stops on a move through the level to tests into the 1.0800 area, however, there is a gap on the charts from the 23 Apr which would suggest that is likely to become a target and the market possibly open to the 1.0760 areas before better bids appear.
- GBP: Trading from the 1.2890 areas the market moved into the Tokyo session testing through the 1.2880 levels before climbing to test the 1.2900 briefly before slipping back to hold the opening levels on quiet trading with US inflationary numbers and advance retail sales to come. Topside light offers into the 1.2900-05 areas with the market likely to open on a move through the level to test into congestion around the 1.2940-50 areas, congestion continues through to the 1.2980 but in lesser form before stronger offers appear towards the 1.3000 with a push through likely to see some weak stops with a mix of offers. Downside bids into the 1.2840 areas and then congestion through into the 1.2800 level, possible congestion continues into the 1.2765 areas with possible stronger bids appearing around the level before the market see stops on a move through the 1.2750 area.
- JPY: USDJPY slipped into the Tokyo session a few pips off the opening levels before attempting a brief move towards the 114.00 levels before drifting through the session to test into the 113.65 areas and holding just off those lows. Topside light offers through the 114.00 areas with the market then running into building offers through to the 114.30 levels and beyond, there could possibly be some weak stops through the level however, one assumes they could be absorbed before the market pushes beyond the 114.50 level and stronger stops and stronger offers 114.80-115.00, Downside bids light through to the 113.50 areas some possible strength here and the market likely to see weak stops on a move through and the 113.00 likely to be vulnerable for a break, with limited congestion through the level.
- AUD: A very tight range through the session with the market holding for the most part around the 0.7375 areas rising in midsession to test towards the 0.7390 areas before drifting back to the low end of the range to hold into the grey hour. Weak offers through the 74 cent level will likely see some weak stops on a move through the 0.7420 areas with more offers likely into the 0.7460 levels with congestion possibly continuing into the 75 cent areas. Downside bids into the 0.7340 areas have held this weak however, a push through to the 0.7320 area is likely to see some support into the figure area and possibly becoming more supportive as the market pushes lower.
Overnight News
USD/CNY:
US, China reach deals on access for beef and financial services
USD:
Tillerson: Trump will not rush US climate policy review
Acting FBI chief contradicts Trump over Bureau support for Comey
Fed seen doing more as financial conditions prove resilient
EUR:
Praet: Urges Govt. to prepare for eventual policy normalization
Praet: Countries must step up their efforts to support Euro
Praet: Monetary policy alone can’t ensure prosperity
Praet: Raising rates would counter bond purchases trends
NZD:
Manufacturing growth slows in April
CNY:
China launches emergency probe on banks to check risky lending sources
JPY:
Japan Govt. names and shames black companies violating labour laws
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Business NZ Manufacturing Index Apr A 56.8 | P 57.8 | R 58
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Apr A 4.30% | C 4.30% | P 4.30% | R 4.20%
06:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â German GDP Q/Q Q1 (P) C 0.60% | P 0.40%
06:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â German CPI M/M Apr (F) C 0.00% | P 0.00%
06:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â German CPI Y/Y Apr (F) C 2.00% | P 2.00%
09:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Mar C 0.30% | P -0.30%
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Apr C 0.20% | P -0.30%
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Apr C 2.30% | P 2.40%
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core M/M Apr C 0.20% | P -0.10%
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core Y/Y Apr C 2.00% | P 2.00%
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Advance Retail Sales Apr C 0.60% | P -0.20%
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Less Autos Apr C 0.50% | P 0.00%
14:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â U. of Michigan Confidence May (P) C 97 | P 97
14:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Business Inventories Mar C 0.10% | P 0.30%
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: Overall there was nothing on the day however, there was some movement through the session with the Asian session quiet into the Tokyo part then rising with some EURAUD buying helping the Euro from the opening 1.0867 level to the 1.0880 area before quietly drifting through to the London session pushing back to the opening level, inflation news in Germany sees pressure still building for the ECB to start changing its ideas, the move initially stalled around the 1.0885 areas before dipping and moving a second time in an attempt to push through the 1.0890 levels before dropping back again to the starting point, the market drifted into the NYK session holding those opening levels and then dropping quickly on higher inflationary news for the US and underlining the June rate decision, the market bounced off the 1.0840 areas and again moved back to the opening levels and drifted a little lower into the close to base along the 1.0860 areas.
- GBP: A quiet range through the Asian session with the market ranging from the opening level around the 1.2940 area and then basing along the 1.2930 areas and then rise to 1.2945 level through to the London session, the slight dip in IP and MP with an increase in the trade deficit cut the market from under Cable dropping to the 1.2905 areas before bouncing off light support, the market traded to above the 1.2920 areas and held into the Rate decision and again the market was disappointed with the no change for either the rate or the vote (apart from a missing member) Cable dropped through to the 1.2880 areas held for an hour before early NYK soled the market back to the 1.2850 areas and then struggled back to the 1.2880 areas to range in the area for several hours, a final push saw the market run to the close holding the 1.2890 level.
- JPY: USDJPY drifted through the Asian session with very little action, opening around the 114.30 level the market was unable to push much above the 114.35 level and slipped back to test the 114.10 areas and range through to deep into the London session ranging around the 114.10-20 areas, strong GBPJPY selling on the UK numbers saw the USDJPY test through the 114.00 level for the first time and then dropping again on the NYK open, US numbers one would have assumed would chase the USD higher however, given the movement in the USDJPY the market must have been caught long cross/Yen and the drop in Euro’s and GBP saw the market trading back to the 113.50 in USDJPY before finding a base and trading slowly back to the 114.00 areas to drift to a close just off that level.
- AUD: The Oz opened lower with the market moving off the 0.7350 areas and trading 0.7350-60 into the Tokyo session, the market dipped during the session with the market testing to the 0.7340 areas and ranging into the London session and early buyers taking the market back through the gap on the charts to test the 0.7370 areas and to range quietly through the session to test back above the 0.7380 level.
Yesterday’s premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBNZ Rate Decision A 1.75% | C 1.75% | P 1.75%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RICS House Price Balance Apr A 22% | C 20% | P 22%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eco Watchers Survey Current Apr A 48.1 | C 47.8 | P 47.4
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â German Wholesale Price Index M/M Apr A 0.30% | C 0.10% | P 0.00%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Apr A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.20%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Apr A 0.70% | C 0.50% | P 0.60%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â ECB Economic Bulletin
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Mar A -0.50% | C -0.40% | P -0.70% | R -0.80%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Y/Y Mar A 1.40% | C 1.90% | P 2.80% | R 2.50%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Production M/M Mar A -0.60% | C -0.20% | P -0.10% | R -0.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Production Y/Y Mar A 2.30% | C 3.00% | P 3.30% | R 3.00%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction Output M/M Mar A -0.70% | C 0.30% | P -1.70%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Mar A -13.4B | C -11.6B | P -12.5B | R -11.4B
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â European Commission Economic Forecasts
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Rate Decision A 0.25% | C 0.25% | P 0.25%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Asset Purchase Target May A 435B | C 435B | P 435B
GBP      MPC Official Bank Rate Votes A 1–0—7 | C 1–0—8 | P 1–0–8
GBP      MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes A 0–0—8 | C 0–0—9 | P 0–0–9
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Inflation Report
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â NIESR GDP Estimate Apr A 0.20% | C 0.40% | P 0.50%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Housing Price Index M/M Mar A 0.20% | C 0.30% | P 0.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI M/M Apr A 0.50% | C 0.20% | P -0.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Y/Y Apr A 2.50% | C 2.20% | P 2.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core M/M Apr A 0.40% | C 0.20% | P 0.00%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core Y/Y Apr A 1.90% | C 1.70% | P 1.60%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (MAY 06) A 236K | C 245K | P 238K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A 45 | C 55 | P 67B
Good Luck,
Andy
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