Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 113.35 | EURUSD 1.09323 | AUDUSD 0.73876 | NZDUSD 0.6858 | USDCAD 1.37126 | USDCHF 1.0011 | GBPUSD 1.28867 |

 

LMAX Ranges 6am London time

Highs    Lows

EURUSD               1.09336 | 1.09227

USDJPY                 113.453 | 113.207

GBPUSD               1.29104 | 1.28818

AUDUSD              0.74034 | 0.73857

USDCHF               1.00196 | 1.00082

USDCAD               1.37224 | 1.36694

NZDUSD               0.68795 | 0.68532

EURGBP               0.84847 | 0.84653

EURCHF                1.09468 | 1.09361

EURJPY                 123.961 | 123.684

For today

• EUR: A very quiet session for the Euro, opening around the 1.0935 areas and trading around the 1.0930 level through to the London session, Topside offers through the 1.0940-60 areas likely to slow any movement higher however, the push through the congestion will likely see weaker congestion however, that 1.1000 level is likely to have strong offers again and through into the 1.1020 with the possibility of strong option barriers still, a push through the 1.1030 areas will likely see strong stops appearing in the market and a run towards the 1.1080 levels and the strong offers. Downside bids light through the 1.0900 levels with limited weak stops on a move through the 1.0880 levels and congestive bids through to the strong 1.0850 areas, with the market then opening for a deeper move through to very limited bids into 1.0800 and the market filling the gap on the charts from April 23 and better bids into the 1.0760-40 areas.
• GBP: A rise through the session steady put moving off the lows 1.2880 areas to push up against the 1.2905 area, the EU court ruling likely on Tuesday brings its own benefits for Brexit negotiations, the fact that regional govt. can act independently to veto a trade deal also opens up the fact that they could go for a bilateral trade deal also. The move through to the grey hour the market held around the 1.2895-1.2900 level. Topside offers into the 1.2905 areas however, a push through the level will likely to see weak stops and then congestion on a move through to the 1.2960 level before the market opens a little however, beyond the 1.2980 level is likely to see stronger offers appearing with possible option related barriers to push through will likely see weak stops joining limited break out stops however, while the market moves into the pre-October range the congestion is likely to continue through to the 1.3060 areas. Downside bids into the 1.2850 areas with the market likely to see some bids continuing thinly through to the 1.2800 level with possibly stronger bids with weak stops possibly through the 1.2780 areas.
• JPY: With the Missile testing in N.Korea the market opened slightly weaker around the 113.20 areas before starting a steady rise through into the Tokyo session filling the gap from Fridays close, the market continued a steady rise testing to the 113.45 levels before running out of steam and ranging through to the grey hour in narrow range around the 113.40 level. Topside offers through to the 114.00 area with those offers likely to thicken on the move into that level, a push through the level will likely see topside congestion and only a decent move through the 114.50 areas will open the market to the 115.00 areas. Downside bids into the current lows are light with congestion then moving into the area, possible weak stops on the move back through 112.80 areas however, the congestion is likely to continue through to the 111.80 areas where the market is likely to increase.
• AUD: The market opened slightly higher quickly filling the gap and testing to the 0.7385 areas in pre-Tokyo before rising quietly through the session to test to the 0.7400 areas and ranging in a tight 0.7395-0.7400 to the grey hours, Topside congestion into the 0.7420 areas are likely to be light however, a push through is likely to see even more congestion through the 0.7440-60 with stronger offers likely on a move to the 75 cent areas, and very little in the way of stops until through the level, Downside bids through the 0.7350 areas offers with stops on a move through the 0.7340 areas, with stronger bids possibly moving into the 73 cent area.

Overnight News                                                                  

NZD:

NZ services industry grows at slowest pace in 4 years.

NZ retail sales volumes rise on Vehicles and Hospitality

KRW:

N.Korea announce recent test has the ability to carry larger payloads

USD:

Microsoft says cyberattack should be wake up call for governments, ohhh and use our software

Trump said to be considering a major reshuffling of his cabinet

EUR/GBP:

Brexit sparks debate on united Ireland vote

AUD/NZD:

Largely escape cyberattack

RUB/SAR:

Russia, Saudi Arabia favour extending OPEC deal for 9mths

AUD:

Mortgage lending volumes take another hit in March

Budget boost fails to materialize for Australian Govt.

EUR:

Austria’s chancellor says he expects early election in Autumn

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

NZD       Retail Sales Ex Inflation Q/Q Q1 A 1.20% | C 0.90% | P 0.60% | R 0.70%

JPY         Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index Y/Y Apr A 2.10% | C 1.80% | P 1.40%

AUD       Home Loans Mar A -0.50% | C 0.00% | P -0.50% | R -0.80%

CNY        Retail Sales Y/Y Apr A 10.70% | C 10.80% | P 10.90%

CNY        Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD Y/Y Apr A 8.90% | C 9.10% | P 9.20%

CNY        Industrial Production Y/Y Apr A 6.50% | C 7.00% | P 7.60%

06:00     JPY         Machine Tool Orders Y/Y Apr (P) P 22.80%

07:15     CHF        Producer & Import Prices M/M Apr C 0.00% | P 0.10%

07:15     CHF        Producer & Import Prices Y/Y Apr C 1.00% | P 1.30%

12:30     USD       Empire State Manufacturing Index May C 7.5 | P 5.2

14:00     USD       NAHB Housing Market Index May C 68 | P 68

20:00     USD       Net Long-term TIC Flows Mar C 68.3B | P 53.4B

Weekend News

KRW:

N.Korea fires missile in test for S.Korean president

CNY/USD:

Trade deal with US helps to lower risk of tension

World:

Ransom threat seen spreading in unpresented global attack

NZD:

House price expectations fall to five year low – ASB

EUR:

Chancellor Merkel’s Conservatives clinch victory in key state vote exit polls

USD:

Sacked FBI chief plans to appear before senate committee to give testimony

EUR/GBP:

EU court threatens Brexit trade deal by giving regional govt. power to veto

GBP:

Polls suggest that May could exceed the landslide victory of Thatcher in 1982

Harry Hindsight

• EUR: Opening around the 1.0860 levels the market struggled through to the 1.0870, and through Asia that was all they wrote as they say, the move through the London session saw very little difference with German numbers all in line the market held quietly and only started to move above the 1.0870 areas late into the London morning, the market still struggled to push through the 1.0880 areas that is until the release of the US numbers saw the USD dipping back and the Euro pushing through the 1.0900 levels quickly with weaker retails sales, the market pushed to the 1.0920 areas and drifted through the session struggling again with the next 10 pips only pushing through into the close.
• GBP: Trading quietly through the Asian session saw the market dip to the 1.2875 level before bouncing back through the opening 1.2885 area and then testing the 1.2900, with no success at the level the market dipped back to the opening levels and ranged for the most part into the London session holding the 1.2885-90 areas, the move into the London session saw Cable drop back quickly testing through to the 1.2855 level on the back it would seem of public confidence increasing for the Brexit negotiations, the move through to the NYK opening saw the market trading around the 1.2850 levels before bouncing on the opening in NYK, testing to the 1.2890 levels and ranging through to a close just off that area.
• JPY: Trading through the early part of the session saw the market dip to the 113.75 level before rising from the Tokyo opening to test to the 113.95 levels before failing and slipping lower through to test the 113.65 area in very quiet trading, the move through into the London session wasn’t inspiring however, the market moving through to the NYK session did push again above the 113.90 level and then dropping quickly on the release of the data, testing to the 113.35 ranging for a short period in the area before making the lows test to the 113.20 level and then ranging between 113.20-45 to the close.
• AUD: The Oz moved off the lows and traded quietly through the Asian session ranging to the 0.7385 levels from the 0.7370 level, the move into London saw Fitch affirming the AAA stable and the market testing through the 74 cent level before slipping back to the previous range through into the US numbers, the move higher saw the market testing to the 0.7420 level before dropping back almost as quickly and ranged around the 0.7390 to the close.

Yesterday’s premiership results

NZD       Business NZ Manufacturing Index Apr A 56.8 | P 57.8 | R 58

JPY         Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Apr A 4.30% | C 4.30% | P 4.30% | R 4.20%

EUR        German GDP Q/Q Q1 (P) A 0.60% | C 0.60% | P 0.40%

EUR        German CPI M/M Apr (F) A 0.00% | C 0.00% | P 0.00%

EUR        German CPI Y/Y Apr (F) A 2.00% | C 2.00% | P 2.00%

EUR        Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Mar A -0.10% | C 0.30% | P -0.30%

USD       CPI M/M Apr A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P -0.30%

USD       CPI Y/Y Apr A 2.20% | C 2.30% | P 2.40%

USD       CPI Core M/M Apr A 0.10% | C 0.20% | P -0.10%

USD       CPI Core Y/Y Apr A 1.90% | C 2.00% | P 2.00%

USD       Advance Retail Sales Apr A 0.40% | C 0.60% | P -0.20%

USD       Retail Sales Less Autos Apr A 0.20% | C 0.50% | P 0.00%

USD       U. of Michigan Confidence May (P) A 97.7 | C 97 | P 97

USD       Business Inventories Mar A 0.20% | C 0.10% | P 0.30%

Stay lucky

Andy

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.

Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.

If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.