Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 110.831 | EURUSD 1.11601 | AUDUSD 0.74322 | NZDUSD 0.69372 | USDCAD 1.36018 | USDCHF 0.9787 | GBPUSD 1.29713 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.11721 | 1.11391
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 111.223 | 110.781
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.29797 | 1.29581
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.98034 | 0.97771
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.74671 | 0.74085
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.36196 | 1.35828
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.69490 | 0.69246
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.09279 | 1.09203
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.86100 | 0.85899
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 124.115 | 123.703
For Today
- EUR: Early highs through the 1.1170 levels before finding sufficient offers to slow the market and a general drift around the 1.1160 level through the session with the market contained to the downside by the 1.1150 area, Topside offers into the 1.1200 areas with the topside Technically weak with congestion around the 1.1200 areas and again around the 1.1300 levels with very little significant lines, weak stops are likely through the levels, Downside bids light through the 1.1100 level with weak stops on a move through the 1.1080 areas with a failure to the topside opening possibly large stops opening a strong move lower, 1.1000 areas likely to see stronger bids appearing but impetus could be too strong with limited congestion through to the 1.0950 levels.
- GBP: Early buying probed above the 1.2980 areas however, the market saw offers into the area and the move into the early Tokyo period saw light sellers moving in and the market basing along the 1.2960 areas through to the grey hour holding the 1.2970 opening level. Topside offers into the 1.3000 level with weak stops through the level, with possible option barriers in the way that may not be so easy however, a break sees the market struggling through with stops and offers matching off to a strong 1.3050 area with resistance line along the sentimental level and the market moving into the previous range before October. Downside bids light through to the 1.2900 level with some limited bids and congestion stronger bids likely towards the 1.2850 areas with weak stops likely to be through the level before the 1.2800 level becomes vulnerable and opens the downside to the 1.2630 areas.
- JPY: Volumes belay the actual range with the USDJPY testing from the opening down to a support line into the 110.55 areas before moving into the early Tokyo session pushing back through the opening 110.80 areas and trading steadily to the 111.20 level and then ranging around the 111.00 areas in an ever tightening range. Topside offers through the 112.20 areas are light with the market finding only minor offers and stops on a move back towards the 113 handle, there is likely to be light offers around the sentimental levels so for the USDJPY 112.20 and 112.80 before moving through 113.00 with stronger offers likely through to the 113.30 areas again, weak stops through the level could see the congested 113.50 levels again tested however, for the moment Trump dominates the market and Dowside bids into the 110.50 levels are likely to be reasonably strong, a test through the level will see weak stops appearing and while the market may see light bids the market becomes vulnerable to a test through to the 109.30 areas it the market pushes through the 110.00 level.
- AUD: The move through into the Tokyo session saw the market holding the 0.7430 opening level and the 0.7440 to the topside the release of the employment figures initially saw the market testing to the 0.7410 level before bouncing back as the picture became clearer, the market bounced back with the market pushing above the 0.7450 levels before trading slowly through the balance of the session testing towards the 0.7470 areas and then drifting into the grey hours around the 0.7460 level. Topside offers through to the 75 cent level are likely to be present however, the move through the level is possibly going to see stronger offers as the market again pushes at the 0.7530 areas with weak stops likely through that level, even so the market is likely to react as it has been over several months, that is slowly. Downside bids sees bids into the 0.7440 areas and congestion down through that level with any movement through 74 cent likely to see strong bids appearing on a move through to the base line for the month around 0.7340, stops through the level are likely to be absorbed and apart from some terrible number along the way those downside bids are likely to thicken the deeper the market moves towards 73 cent.
Overnight News
USD:
Former FBI Chief Mueller named special counsel on Russia probe BBG source
Trump administration considering adding currency rules to Nafta
History repeating itself (McCarthyism) June 2016 Kevin McCarthy said that Putin pays Trump
Trump to meet 4 candidates for FBI Chief on Wednesday Spicer White House Spokesman
Trump was very clear that the account of his discussion with Comey was not accurate Spicer
Trump not aware that Russians recorded conversation between Trump and Russian foreign minister
Trump says a thorough investigation will confirm what we already know Spicer
There was no collusion between my campaign and any foreign entity
Trump says about appointment of special prosecutor on Russia investigation looks forward to the matter concluding quickly
Republicans worry Trump scandals may doom legislative agenda
Flynn told Trump before Presidential inauguration he’s under probe NY Times
JPY:
GDP 0.5% in line but 2.2% annualised vs. expectations around 1.7%
BoJ’s Iwata: No specific exit policy is decided
China House price index fell from previous 11.3% to 10.7% in April
Japan’s Ishihara: Consumer sentiment is picking up
AUD:
Oz employment rose 37.4K in April
USD/AUD:
US firm sparks bidding war for Australia’s Fairfax media
CNY:
China home prices rise in fewer cities after more curbs imposed
China puts stability ahead of debt control – AFR
NZD:
NZ consumer confidence rises in May ANZ survey
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q1 (P) A 0.50% | C 0.40% | P 0.30%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Deflator Y/Y Q1 (P) A -0.80% | C -0.70% | P -0.10%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Inflation Expectation May A 4.00% | P 4.10%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Change Apr A 37.4K | C 5.0K | P 60.9K | R 60.0K
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Apr A 5.70% | C 5.90% | P 5.90%
08:30Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Apr C 1.10% | P -1.80%
12:30Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â International Securities Transactions (CAD) Mar P 38.84B
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (MAY 13) C 240K | P 236K
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Philly Fed Manufacturing Index May C 18.5 | P 22
14:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Leading Indicators Apr C 0.40% | P 0.40%
14:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P 45B
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: Another day and another round of Trump concerns, at least its keeping the market active, Euro opened just above the 1.1080 levels and once Tokyo set in the market pushed at the 1.1100 area after several hours the market broke through to the 1.1110 area and held the level until the grey hour with light selling moving into the market, London were buyers on the opening however the market could manage only the 1.11120 area before dropping back with CPI in line with expectations, the market tested back to the opening levels and ran quietly for a couple of hours before starting a steady rise into the NYK session, pushing through the 1.1120 level on the second attempt the market saw weak stops lifting the market to the 1.1140 and then struggled through the 1.1140-60 areas to the close, with commentary coming every few hours from one US senator or another, talk about sharks in the water.
- GBP: Cable struggled through the session with the market not really knowing what to peg it with the USD or the Euro, trading through the early part of the Asian session the market moved around the opening levels holding to the 1.2920 area deep into Tokyo before lifting through to test the 1.2940 level and into the London session, the market tested its lows with early London sellers testing below the 1.2910 level, Jobless claims dropped again and last month’s number was also revised average weekly earnings held so for the moment no immediate pressure apart from the inflationary numbers which would explain the minor dip, the market moved off the lows and pushed gradually higher through into the NYK session and having pushed through the 1.2905 areas the market was not in new territory and moved steadily to the 1.2980 areas and trading through into the NYK session holding the 1.2960 levels, the market gyrated a little with some EURGBP buying moving through to push 0.8500 levels before failing just above and the cable moved off the 1.2940 NYK lows to rapidly test the 1.2990 area before collapsing back to the 1.2940 area again, holding for a couple of hours in the area the market slowly rose to the close around the 1.2970 levels.
- JPY: No real strong movement just a steady USD sell throughout the day, with the market opening around the 113.00 level and dropping slowly through into the TKY session to trade around the 112.60 level for a short period before grinding to the 112.40 area, the move to and through the London session saw no real movement and a slow drift through to the 112.20 areas, the opening in NYK saw sellers again pressing the USD lower and the USDJPY moved a little bit faster on a push down to the 111.40 over the course of a couple of hours before slowing again and grinding steadily lower through the session to test the 110.80 areas into the close.
- AUD: A quiet range for the Oz and unable to capitalize on the USD weakness, drifting from the opening around the 0.74r25 level the market based around the 0.7410 level through to the grey hours, to test to the highs before the London opening, having touched above the 0.7440 areas the market dropped quickly back on early sellers and held the 0.7390 areas through to the NYK session and lifted back to the opening levels into the session to trade quietly around the 0.7425 areas.
Yesterday’s premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Inputs Q/Q Q1 A 0.80% | C 0.70% | P 1.00%
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Outputs Q/Q Q1 A 1.40% | C 1.10% | P 1.50%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Machine Orders M/M Mar A 1.40% | C 2.50% | P 1.50%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Consumer Confidence May A -1.10% | P -0.70%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wage Cost Index Q/Q Q1 A 0.50% | C 0.50% | P 0.50%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Mar (F) A -1.90% | C -2.10% | P -2.10%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Jobless Claims Change Apr A 19.4K | P 25.5K | R 33.5K
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Claimant Count Rate Apr A 2.30% | P 2.20%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y Mar A 2.40% | C 2.40% | P 2.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â ILO Unemployment Rate 3M Mar A 4.60% | C 4.70% | P 4.70%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI M/M Apr A 0.40% | C 0.40% | P 0.80%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Y/Y Apr (F) A 1.90% | C 1.90% | P 1.50%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI – Core Y/Y Apr (F) A 1.20% | C 1.20% | P 1.20%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Shipments M/M Mar A 1.00% | C 0.40% | P -0.20% | -0.60%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A -1.8M | C -2.5M | P -5.2M
Good Luck,
Andy
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