Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 111.788 | EURUSD 1.11826 | AUDUSD 0.74772 | NZDUSD 0.7014 | USDCAD 1.35125 | USDCHF 0.97602 | GBPUSD 1.29617 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.11921 | 1.11773
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 111.993 | 111.734
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.29783 | 1.2955
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.97647 | 0.97499
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.74817 | 0.74427
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.35375 | 1.3512
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.70207 | 0.6989
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.09182 | 1.09119
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.86330 | 0.8615
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 125.219 | 125.004
For today
- EUR: A very quiet session with the Euro trading around the opening level and barely having a range much beyond 10 pips, testing through the 1.1190 levels before dipping back through the 1.1180 level and holding that base through to the grey hour. Topside offers light through the 1.1240-60 areas with stronger offers then moving in on any attempt towards the 1.1300 levels with possibly option barriers added to sentimental sellers with stronger stops through the 1.1310 areas and the 1.1400 becoming very vulnerable to a test. Downside light into the 1.1160-40 areas with light stops through the level with better bids then into the 1.1100-1.1080 areas with strong stops likely on a move through that low end, very little in the way of Technical support from then on with very little until the market moves into the 1.1000 level and possibly stronger area.
- GBP: Moving a little lower from the opening to test to the 1.2955 areas before steadily rising with light cross buying moving through the market, Cable pushed through to the 1.2975 areas and ranging lightly through the grey hour, offers above the 1.3000 level and continuing through to the 1.3050 areas with possible weak stops on a move through with possible stronger stops making an appearance as the market moves into the pre- October ranges, and an open market. Downside bids light back through the 1.3000 level with some support now likely to be moving in around the 1.2950 level and the 1.2905 area getting stronger, stops are likely on a move through the level.
- JPY: A quiet day for the JPY with the market trading in a tight range around the 111.90 levels with a minor test of the 1.1200 level early in the session before holding through the middle of the session around the 111.75 areas and moving slowly back to the 111.90 level through to the grey hours. Topside offers light through the 112.00 areas with some light congestion through to the 112.20 area and weak stops on a move through the level to the 112.50 slightly stronger level, stronger offers then move in on a test into the 113.00 level with limited stops on a move through the level and opening up on a break above the 113.30 areas. Downside bids into the 111.50 levels with congestion below the level and stronger bids likely into the 111.00 areas and just through that level however, a test through the level possibly stronger bids again into the 110.50 areas with the market becoming vulnerable to a test to the 110.00 level and the market looking to close the gap on the charts on a move through.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7480 areas and slipping lower into the Tokyo session with a weaker Leading index number leaving the market drifting through to the 0.7440 levels as the market moves into the grey hour. Downside bids into the 74 cent levels with some limited congestion into that area before the market sees some weak stops on a move through the level however, better bids are likely to appear into the 0.7350 areas and only a strong push through the 0.7340 levels will see stops opening the market to a test to the 73 cent and possible strong bids moving into the market. Topside offers light through the 75 cent level and increasing as the market moves towards the 0.7540-60 areas with congestion around the level and further movement likely to be a grind to the 76 cents.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
Moody’s on China:
China’s local currency and foreign currency senior unsecured debt ratings are downgraded to A from AA3
China outlook stable
China expect the governments direct debt burden to rise gradually towards 40% of GDP by 2018
Expects indirect and contingent liabilities to increase
China’s growth potential to decline to close to 5% over next 5yrs
Local currency bond and deposit ceilings remain at AA3
Rating reflects expectations that China’s financial strength will erode somewhat over the coming years
USD:
Former CIA Chief Brennan says Russians were in contact with Trump Campaign
Brennan said Russia brazenly interfered in the Presidential election despite a direct warning to a top Kremlin official
US rate hike in June a distinct possibility Fed Reserve Harker
GBP:
UK terror threat level to increase from severe to critical
UK PM May says approval for military help to police
PM says Military personnel may be deployed at public events
ZAR:
ANC leaders said to plan raising the Zuma removal at key meeting
JPY:
BoJ may need to coordinate new fiscal plan to lift inflation EX Fed Bernanke
Japan manufacturers mood slips despite economic recovery Reuters Tankan
France makes Brexit pitch to Wall street banks in New York
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (NZD) Apr A 578M | C 267M | P 332M | R 277M
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Leading Index M/M Apr A -0.12% | P 0.0.08%
06:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â German GfK Consumer Sentiment Jun C 10.2 | P 10.2
13:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â House Price Index M/M Mar C 0.60% | P 0.80%
14:00Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoC Rate Decision C 0.50% | P 0.50%
14:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Existing Home Sales Apr C 5.65M | P 5.71M
14:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories P -1.8M
18:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â FOMC Minutes May 3 Meeting
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: Opening around the 1.1240 levels early trading was slow and the market edged slowly through the session to above the 1.1250 levels before trading around the level into the grey hour, early European sellers moved in with German numbers unchanged and the market dipping back into the 1.1220’s before London bought the market into the PMI numbers, with a mixed set of numbers the market initially pushed through towards the 1.1270 level, with the data out of the way the market drifted into the NYK session testing back to the 1.1210 levels and ranging in the 1.1220-40 area through to the option expiry period in NYK, comments from Coeure suggest no change to rates for the moment and Fed comments saw limited USD buying and the Euro dropping quickly through the 1.1200 levels testing to the 1.1180 and holding that level through to the close.
- GBP: A choppy session with the market finding limited support on the move lower with sellers pushing those levels in the aftermath of another terrorist attack, the support continued through the day with the market dropping towards the 1.2950 levels on several occasions before rising back towards the 1.3000 levels, the move through to the NYK option expiry saw the market pushing back through the 1.3000 levels and spiking to the 1.3035 levels before dropping back quickly again and trading to the close just off the lows.
- JPY: USDJPY was quiet through the day for the most part with the market opening around the 111.30 and dipping from just above that level through into the Tokyo session testing the 111.00 level and trading through the day into NYK ranging between the opening levels and the 110.90 lows, the move through to the London close saw the USD rally with a better US services PMI although manufacturing was less than expected the USD pushed to the 111.70 levels before pausing before again pushing to the 111.85 resistance areas and finishing around the level.
- AUD: Moving through into the Tokyo session little changed from the opening 0.7475 areas the market moved off the lows just above the 0.7465 area to test towards the 0.7490 areas and with the 75 cent so close there was time for the market to push lightly through the level and into the London session, the move through London and into the NYK session saw the market push to the 0.7515 and make the highs for the day before slipping quietly back through the balance of the session to finish the day barely in the positive.
Yesterday’s premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â All Industry Activity Index M/M Mar A -0.60% | C -0.50% | P 0.70%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (CHF) Apr A 1.97B | C 2.87B | P 3.10B | R 3.04B
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German GDP Q/Q Q1 (F) A 0.60% | C 0.60% | P 0.60%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Manufacturing PMI May (P) A 54 | C 55.2 | P 55.1
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Services PMI May (P) A 58 | C 56.7 | P 56.7
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Manufacturing PMI May (P) A 59.4 | C 58 | P 58.2
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Services PMI May (P) A 55.2 | C 55.5 | P 55.4
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Manufacturing PMI May (P) A 57 | C 56.5 | P 56.7
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services PMI May (P) A 56.2 | C 56.4 | P 56.4
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Business Climate May A 114.6 | C 113.1 | P 112.9
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Expectations May A 106.5 | C 105.4 | P 105.2
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Current Assessment May A 123.2 | C 121 | P 121.1
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Apr A 9.6B | C 8.0B | P 4.4B | R 2.3B
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CBI Realized Sales May A 2 | C 10 | P 38
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Sales M/M Mar A 0.90% | C 1.00% | P -0.20% | R 0.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â US Manufacturing PMI May (P) A 52.5 | C 53.1 | P 52.8
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â US Services PMI May (P) A 54 | C 53.2 | P 53.1
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Home Sales Apr A 569K | C 610K | P 621K
Good Luck,
Andy
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