Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 111.492 | EURUSD 1.12186 | AUDUSD 0.75041 | NZDUSD 0.70294 | USDCAD 1.34068 | USDCHF 0.97304 | GBPUSD 1.29746 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.12446 | 1.12111
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 111.700 | 111.522
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.29865 | 1.29692
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.97392 | 0.97172
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.75159 | 0.7488
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.34154 | 1.33943
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.70511 | 0.70341
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.09290 | 1.09178
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.86616 | 0.86465
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 125.491 | 125.141
For today
- EUR: A quiet but steady grind higher through the Tokyo session with the market moving through into the Tokyo opening level with the opening and dipping just a little to test the 1.1210 areas before moving slowly to the 1.1230 level and holding a narrow range for a few hours before again running higher to the 1.1245 level and moving into the grey hour around the 1.1240 level. Topside offers light through the 1.1240-60 areas with stronger offers moving in around the 1.1280-1.1300 area some light congestion through the area with weak stops and possible break out players on a move through and the 1.1400 becoming vulnerable. Downside bids limited on a move back through the 1.1200 areas with stronger bids moving in around the 1.1150 levels and stops likely on a move through the 1.1140 may see weak stops however, support into the 1.1100-1.1080 areas with the market opening then to a larger fall.
- GBP: Cable moved quietly form the opening 1.2970 levels to test into the 1.2980 area as the market moves into the grey hour, very little of interest on the day with early lows just off the opening levels. Topside offers into the 1.3000 with limited stops and the market likely to be congested through to the 1.3050 resistance level, only a strong push through the level will open up stops and a run into the pre October ranges through to 1.3500 over time. Downside bids limited into the 1.2950 areas however, there is a couple of weeks of congestion through the level with bids likely into the 1.2905 areas and stronger bids on a move to the 1.2850 level with limited stops.
- JPY: USDJPY opened just above the 111.50 areas and traded quietly through the session with the market slowly moving to the 111.70 areas before drifting back a little to hold the 111.60 areas into the grey hour, Topside offers through the 112.00 areas with weak stops likely on a move through the 112.20 with some congestion on a move through the 112.50 with increasing resistance on a move into the 113.00 levels, and stronger congestion on moves through the level, Downside bids light into the 111.50 areas with congestion likely to continue through to the 111.00 areas, weak stops through the level and the market opening to test the support into the 110.50 areas with possible stops below the level.
- AUD: A very narrow range through the day so far with light selling on the move into the Tokyo session before rising from the lows around the 0.7490 to hold the 75 cent level for a short period, light buying extended the highs to the 0.7515 levels before slipping back to the opening 0.7505 area into the grey hour. Topside offers likely through to the 0.7530 areas with possibly weak stops absorbed by congestion through to the 0.7550 levels and the market struggling for open space, downside bids into the 0.7450 levels likely to be light with the main strength appearing through the level and into the 74 cent areas, while there are bids into the level any move through will still remain fairly well bid on a move through to the 0.7440 areas before stops appear.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
EUR:
Draghi says there’s no reason to deviate from ECB guidance
USD:
FED’s Kaplan repeats view there is not a lot of slack left in US labour market
Kaplan feels very strongly that trade relationships with Canada, Mexico is central to US economy
Kaplan repeats he’s not supportive of easing capital requirements, stress testing for big banks
Kaplan says he believes long run neutral rate is closer to 2% than 3%
Kaplan repeats he sees three rate increases in total in 2017
NZD:
NZ sees GDP growth of 3.2% in 2017, 3.7% in 2018
NZ says tax threshold changes lower surplus track
NZ Govt. package would modestly boost inflation in later years
NZ forecasts 2016-17 budget surplus of NZ$1.62B
NZ reaffirms NZ$7B bond program for 2017-18
NZ Govt. would raise tax thresholds if re-elected
NZ forcasts 2017-18 budget surplus of NZ$2.86B
USD/CNY:
US navy ship sails near South China sea reef claimed by Beijing: US official
HKD:
Moody’s downgrades Hong Kong after China ratings cut
SGD:
A tiny island off Singapore may hold keys to energy’s future
KRW:
S.Korea mulls strategic command to counter N.Korea
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
08:30Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BBA Mortgage Approvals Apr C 40.8K | P 41.1K
08:30Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q1 (P) C 0.30% | P 0.30%
08:30Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Index of Services 3M/3M Mar C 0.30% | P 0.50%
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Advance Goods Trade Balance Apr C -64.6B | P -64.8B
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Inventories Apr (P) C 0.20% | P 0.20%
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (20 MAY) C 238K | P 232K
14:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P 68B
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: Moving from the opening around the 1.1185 levels the market traded in a narrow range deep into the London session, moving through the Asian session the market traded for the most part in the 1.1180-90 range with only brief moves above and below the range, the move into the grey hour saw the market testing into the low 1.1170’s before bouncing a little higher on ECB comments about inflation and needing more evidence, the first move up was unable to penetrate the 1.1200 levels before slipping back to the 1.1175 levels and a more concerted effort on the move into the NYK session, overall the volumes were quiet and although the market did test above the 1.1200 level before again rejecting the level as the market ran to the London close to post the lows just below the 1.1170 level, the move through the end of the session saw the FOMC with officials looking to reduce bond holdings and still mixed signals on the number of hikes this year. The USD was sold off a little to drive the Euro to its highs just below the 1.1220 area into the close
- GBP: As with the Euro the market struggled through the Asian session with the market opening around the 1.2965 levels and dipping a little through to the 1.2955 area before climbing steadily through into the grey hours to push above the 1.2975 areas, London were buyers and the market moved towards the 1.3000 level before rejecting the level and dropping back to the opening areas for the run into the NYK session, the rejection of the Topside saw the market dropping back with a little bit of a spat over the release of pertinent details about the terrorist attack by the US press, the dip back saw the market testing through the 1.2930 levels on a second run lower into the London close before seeing weak stops triggered to the topside as the FOMC minutes were released and the market ran to a close around the 1.2975 level.
- JPY: USDJPY saw a narrow range through the day for the most part with the market opening around the 111.80 level and ranging around the 111.90 level for the most part with brief moves above the 112.00 levels with very little conviction, the more through the London session saw the market test to the 11.70 areas and into the NYK session rising slowly through to the highs around the 112.10 level for the day, The FOMC minutes saw the USD dropping back a little and the USDJPY dipping to the 111.50 areas for the close.
- AUD: The Oz had a better range than the USDJPY however, it was still limited with the market dipping on a poor leading index number and testing from the opening levels to the 0.7455, the market then traded slowly through the 0.7450 areas and holding around the 0.7445 areas through into the grey hour moving off the lows, a steady climb through to the opening areas and struggling above the 0.7480 areas through into the NYK session and a long run to the FOMC holding a tight range, the minutes saw the market rising quickly to the 0.7495 level and then slowly pushing through the 75 cent areas to test into the close above the 0.7505 area.
Yesterday’s premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (NZD) Apr A 578M | C 267M | P 332M | R 277M
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Leading Index M/M Apr A -0.10% | P 0.10%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â German GfK Consumer Sentiment Jun A 10.4 | C 10.2 | P 10.2
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â House Price Index M/M Mar A 0.60% | C 0.60% | P 0.80%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoC Rate Decision A 0.50% | C 0.50% | P 0.50%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Existing Home Sales Apr A 5.57M | C 5.65M | P 5.71M
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A -4.4M | C -2.4M | P -1.8M
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â FOMC Minutes May 3 Meeting
Good Luck,
Andy
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