Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 111.265 | EURUSD 1.11633 | AUDUSD 0.74396 | NZDUSD 0.70626 | USDCAD 1.3452 | USDCHF 0.9775 | GBPUSD 1.28404 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.11460 | 1.11221
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 111.290 | 110.776
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.28354 | 1.27940
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.97947 | 0.97836
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.74421 | 0.74162
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.34777 | 1.34624
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.70530 | 0.70353
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.09090 | 1.08888
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.86977 | 0.8678
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 124.037 | 123.25
For today
- EUR: Several early news items saw the Euro dropping back quickly dropping from the opening 1.1165 area to test down to the 1.1140 level before drifting through the balance of the session into the Tokyo session testing slowly through to the 1.1120’s before holding around the 1.1125 level through to the grey hour, Topside offers light through the 1.1140-60 areas, weak stops likely behind the level and then stronger offers into the 1.1200 areas with stronger stops likely through the 1.1220 levels. Downside bids into the 1.1120 area with bids likely to continue through to the 110.80 areas with possible strong stops on a move through the level and the market opening for a test to the 1.1000 areas and possible stronger bids likely.
- GBP: With May’s comments on no deal for Brexit the market dropped quickly back from the opeing levels moving into the Tokyo session testing to the 1.2810 level bouncing and then continuing in a move through the level to bounce again off the 1.2795 levels and run steadily back to the 1.2820 areas, the market drifted a little from that point with much of the volume in the early period of the session, Downside bids into the 1.2800 levels remain with bids likely to extend to a support line around the 1.2765-70 levels, a push through the level is likely to see weakness appearing and the market free to move down into the 1.2630 areas and stronger support.
- JPY: Cross JPY selling moved into the market with the Greek news and the UK PM news and the USDJPY dropped steadily once it moved into the Tokyo session testing through the 111.00 areas with weak stops helping the market down to the 110.80 areas before finding some support and holding the level and rising only lightly through to the 110.90-95 areas. Downside bids remain in the 110.80 areas with stronger bids likely into the 110.50 levels with congestion likely through the level and further bids into the 110.00 areas, Topside offers light back through into the 111.50 levels with possible weak stops behind the level and the 112 levels becoming vulnerable however, that level is likely to see stronger offers continuing through into the 112.10-20 areas before stops appear.
- AUD: Quiet trading for the Oz with the market running through into the Tokyo session a dip with the other currencies saw the Oz trade downing into the teens before ranging around the 0.7420-30 levels to London. Plenty of congestion to the topside with the market seeing some stronger offers through to the 0.7460 level and possible weak stops above however, 75 cent is likely to see stronger offers appearing in the market and continuing through to the 0.7520 areas before stops appear and the market opens a little, Downside bids through to the 0.7380 areas with very little sign of weakness for the moment with bids likely to reappear around the 0.7350 areas and continue through to the stronger 73 cent level.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
GBP:
UK PM May says prepared to leave EU without a Brexit deal
EUR:
Greece may opt out of next payment without debt deal Bild
Weidman syas expansionary ECB policy appropriate in principle
Weidman says exit discussions legitimate given price outlook
EUR/USD:
Trump has weakened the west, hurt EU interests German FM
NZD:
Home building approvals fell for the second month in April
USD:
US banks pull back from $1.2T car loan markets
Bullard: Rate now close to an appropriate rate
Bullard: can stay about where we are or a little bit higher
Bullard: Repeats he disagrees with idea that 2.00% is needed
AUD:
Australia housing construction boom shows signs of slowing down
JPY:
Japans unemployment rate holds at two decade low in April
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits M/M Apr A -7.60% | P -1.80% | R -1.20%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Apr A 2.80% | C 2.80% | P 2.80%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Household Spending Y/Y Apr A -1.40% | C -0.70% | P -1.30%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Trade Y/Y Apr A 3.20% | C 2.20% | P 2.10%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Approvals M/M Apr A 4.40% | C 3.00% | P -13.40% | R -10.30%
06:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â German Import Price Index M/M Apr C 0.10% | P -0.50%
06:45Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â French GDP Q/Q Q1 (P) C 0.30% | P 0.30%
07:00Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â KOF Leading Indicator May C 106.2 | P 106
09:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Business Climate Indicator May C 1.11 | P 1.09
09:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Economic Confidence May C 110 | P 109.6
09:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Industrial Confidence May C 3.1 | P 2.6
09:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services Confidence May C 14.1 | P 14.2
09:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Consumer Confidence May (F) C -3.3 | P -3.3
12:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â German CPI M/M May (P) C -0.10% | P 0.00%
12:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â German CPI Y/Y May (P) C 1.60% | P 2.00%
12:30Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Current Account (CAD) Q1 C -11.4B | P -10.7B
12:30Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Product Price M/M Apr P 0.80%
12:30Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Raw Materials Price Index M/M Apr P -1.60%
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Personal Income Apr C 0.40% | P 0.20%
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Personal Spending Apr C 0.40% | P 0.00%
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Deflator M/M Apr C 0.20% | P -0.20%
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Deflator Y/Y Apr C 1.70% | P 1.80%
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Core M/M Apr C 0.10% | P -0.10%
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Core Y/Y Apr C 1.50% | P 1.60%
13:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Mar C 5.60% | P 5.90%
14:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Confidence May C 120 | P 120.3
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: Opening in line with Friday’s close and testing to the 1.1185 areas into the Tokyo session, with Bank holidays in several countries, Tokyo saw the market drop back to test into the 1.1160 areas and holding around the level through into the London session, the market started a steady rise through to the 1.1190 level and trading quietly through into the NYK session and the Draghi speech, QE remains and isn’t likely to disappear any time soon, Euro’s slipped from the 1.1190 area trading back to the opening levels in very limited volumes to finish on the lows again.
- GBP: The market opened in line with the close on Friday and slowly moved through the day heading to the 1.2850 levels with the market unwilling to test the downside, the Asian session saw the market pushing to the 1.2830 level in quiet trading and once London moved in the market renewed its steady climb through to test the 1.2850 levels into the NYK session, a dip as the Euro dragged on the Draghi comments saw the market back to the 1.2830 areas before climbing slowly higher to hold just above the 1.2840 areas to the close.
- JPY: Moving from the opening the market tested through to the 111.45 levels before returning to the opening level and then ranging through the day in a very tight range around the 111.30 levels.
- AUD: The Oz was similar to the JPY with the market moving in a quiet range through the day, testing the 0.7450 areas before slipping lower to make the lows just below 0.7430 area, London were slow buyers and the market remained in the opening areas deep into the NYK session testing once again the 0.7450 levels before drifting to a close more or less unchanged.
Yesterday’s premiership results
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone M3 Y/Y Apr A 4.90% | C 5.20% | P 5.30%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Draghi Speaks at European Parliament
Good Luck,
Andy
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