Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 110.769 | EURUSD 1.12428 | AUDUSD 0.74308 | NZDUSD 0.70991 | USDCAD 1.35012 | USDCHF 0.96779 | GBPUSD 1.28904 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.12568 | 1.12336
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 111.067 | 110.715
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.28892 | 1.28673
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.96863 | 0.96713
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.74547 | 0.73847
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.35099 | 1.34796
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.70888 | 0.70624
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.08914 | 1.08806
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.87398 | 0.87252
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 124.923 | 124.474
For today
- EUR: While volumes were reasonable the market was unable to move far with early trading between the 1.1235-45 level, and a quick move higher on the Oz numbers testing to the 1.1255 level before drifting back again once the cross movement finished and holding through to the grey hour around the 1.1245 level. Topside offers continuing through the highs with the market increasing as the market moves towards the 1.1300 levels however, a push through the 1.1275-80 level will see some light stops and the 1.1300 level becoming vulnerable, a push through the 1.1320 levels opens the topside up a little with congestion likely to continue however, stronger offers are not likely until the market moving into the 1.1400 areas. Downside bids light back down and through the 1.1200 areas with stronger bids bot likely until the market moves through to the 1.1150 areas with a light support line with possible weak stops on a move through the level, with stronger bids likely into the 1.1100 areas and through to 1.1080.
- GBP: Cable traded quietly trading along the along the 1.2870 areas with a brief move higher as the market matured with a small test to the 1.2890 levels before backing off again to push to the 1.2870 areas, Topside offers light through the 1.2920 areas with congestion building from the 1.2950 levels onwards with particular strength likely on any attempt to the 1.3000 level with stronger offers likely to continue through to the 1.3050 and possible stops on a move through that level, Downside bids are lightly congested through to the 1.2800 levels with buyers below the level and down to yesterday’s lows likely to become the base however, a push through the level will see weak stops in possibly size and a quick move lower.
- JPY: Opening around the 110.75 level there was a minor dip to the 110.70 areas before pushing through to the 110.85 areas into the Tokyo session, the market dipped back again towards the lows before starting a steady movement higher to challenge above the 111.00 areas for a brief period before falling back to sedentary move through to the grey hour holding the 111.85-95 area. Topside offers light through to the 111.20 levels, possibly some weak stops on a move through the level with congestion likely to continue through to the 111.50 areas with stronger offers likely through the 111.80-112.00 areas. Downside bids into the 110.50 support line with a break here seeing sellers appearing for a push through to the 110.00 level and the gap on the charts from last month becomes vulnerable with bids likely to appear in strength into the 109.30’s
- AUD: Mixed day for the Oz with the market drifting from the opening above 0.7430 areas testing down to the 0.7420 areas, better retail sales numbers saw the market move quickly through to the 0.7450 areas before the Capex number showing 0.30% leads to a possible weaker GDP and the market dropping back quickly to push through the 74 cent level triggering weak longs and dipping into the 0.7380’s before finding bids sufficient to hold the market, bids into the 0.7380 levels are likely to be reasonably stronger with further congestion on a run to the 0.7350 areas with particular strength through to the 0.7340 areas before weak stops are likely to appear, a test of the 73 cent level will likely see exporter bids in the area and the market supported through the level with strength likely to appear around the sentimental levels on any attempt to move towards the next level. Topside offers light back through the to the mid 74 cent areas with some light congestion on the way however, stronger offers will quickly reappear on any test through towards the 75 cent areas.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
EUR:
Weidmann says ECB starting to debate whether to change guidance
ECB’s Eisenschmidt: Euro area core inflation not on desired path
CNY:
Caixin China manufacturing PMI for May fall to 11 month low
USD:
Feds Williams says three rate hikes this year his baseline view
Commerce’s Ross says best chance for NAFTA revamp is by January
AUD/EUR:
Nowotny questions if ECB 2% inflation target is realistic: APA
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Terms of Trade Index Q/Q Q1 A 5.10% | C 3.90% | P 5.70% | R 5.80%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Capital Spending Q1 A 4.50% | C 3.90% | P 3.80%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing May (F) A 53.1 | C 52 | P 52
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Private Capital Expenditure Q1 A 0.30% | C 0.50% | P -2.10% | R -1.00%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Apr A 1.00% | C 0.30% | P -0.10% | R -0.20%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Caixin PMI Manufacturing May A 49.6 | C 50.2 | P 50.3
05:45Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q1 C 0.50% | P 0.10%
06:00Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Nationwide House Prices M/M May C 0.20% | P -0.40%
07:15Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales (Real) Y/Y Apr C 2.40% | P 2.10%
07:30Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SVME PMI May C 57.8 | P 57.4
07:45Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Italy Manufacturing PMI May C 56.1 | P 56.2
07:50Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Manufacturing PMI May (F) C 54 | P 54
07:55Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Manufacturing PMI May (F) C 59.4 | P 59.4
08:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Manufacturing PMI May (F) C 57 | P 57
08:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Italian GDP Q/Q Q1 (F) C 0.20% | P Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.20%
08:30Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing May C 56.5 | P 57.3
11:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y May P -42.90%
12:15Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ADP Employment Change May C 181K | P 177K
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Non-Farm Productivity Q1 (F) C -0.60% | P -0.60%
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unit Labor Costs Q1 (F) C 3.00% | P 3.00%
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (27 MAY) C 238K | P 234K
14:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Manufacturing May C 54.6 | P 54.8
14:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Prices Paid May C 67 | P 68.5
14:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction Spending M/M Apr C 0.50% | P -0.20%
14:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P 75B
15:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories P -4.4M
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: The Asian session saw a tight range, trading between the 1.1180-70 levels before dipping into the grey hour, the low was set at that point around the 1.1165 areas, London were buyers pushing the Euro towards the 1.1200 level even with weaker retail sales out of Germany, German employment numbers and Eurozone inflation numbers saw the market rising steadily higher through to the 1.1210 areas, the market continued steadily higher through the NYK session pushing through to the 1.1250 levels before finding sufficient offers to curb the movement and a slow range to the close around the 1.1240 levels.
- GBP: A quick test lower from the opening saw the market drop back from the 1.2860 levels to test for the first time below the 1.2800 levels, rising a little through the Tokyo session the market moved to the 1.2830 into mid-session before drifting off the level and into the London session holding around the 1.2800 level, UK money supply saw the market testing through to the 1.2770 levels before bouncing back off the support areas to test back to the 1.2850 levels and holding around that level into the NYK session, NYK were steady buyers as the USD dropped back and the move into the London close saw the market push through the 1.2900 levels and stops triggered to a move to the 1.2920 areas before drifting through to the close around the 1.2890 areas.
- JPY: Mixed day over all with early buying from the opening 110.85 areas and pushing through the 111.00 to trigger light stops on a run through to the 111.20 areas before drifting through for most of the day pushing slowly lower, with the market slipping into early London testing back through to the lows around the 110.75 areas and holding into the NYK session, Chicago PMI numbers saw the USD dip quickly and the market pushing to the 110.55 support line and basing for several hours before rising to the 110.75 into the close.
- AUD: A quiet drifting market through the day with early highs made in Tokyo testing through the 0.7470 areas before dropping back again to trade around the 0.7450 levels for the rest of the Asian session and deep into the London day, the move into the NYK session saw a light attempt higher but it was unable to test the 0.7470 areas again and then dropping back from the opening testing to the 0.7430 level and then basing along than level through to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GfK Consumer Confidence May A -5 | C -8 | P -7
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y May A -0.40% | C -0.30% | P -0.50%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Apr (P) A 4.00% | C 4.10% | P -1.90%
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ANZ Business Confidence May A 14.9 | P 11
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing PMI May A 51.2 | C 51 | P 51.2
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Non-manufacturing PMI May A 54.5 | P 54
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Y/Y Apr A 1.90% | C -1.50% | P 0.20%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â German Retail Sales M/M Apr A 0.20% | C 0.40% | P 0.10% | R 0.20%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â UBS Consumption Indicator Apr A 1.48 | P 1.5 | R 1.44
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Unemployment Change May A -9K | C -14K | P -15K
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Unemployment Rate May A 5.70% | C 5.70% | P 5.80%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Mortgage Approvals Apr A 65K | C 66K | P 67K | R 66K
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â M4 Money Supply M/M Apr A 1.20% | C 0.40% | P 0.30%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Unemployment Rate Apr A 9.30% | C 9.40% | P 9.50%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y May A 1.40% | C 1.50% | P 1.90%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI – Core Y/Y May (A) A 0.90% | C 1.00% | P 1.20%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP M/M Mar A 0.50% | C 0.30% | P 0.00%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Chicago PMI May A 55.2 | C 57 | P 58.3
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Pending Home Sales M/M Apr A -1.30% | C 0.60% | P -0.80% | R -0.90%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Fed Beige Book
Good Luck,
Andy
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