Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 109.566 | EURUSD 1.12182 | AUDUSD 0.75891 | NZDUSD 0.72604 | USDCAD 1.3247 | USDCHF 0.97126 | GBPUSD 1.27524 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.12288 | 1.12055
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 109.802 | 109.272
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.27604 | 1.27404
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.97200 | 0.97039
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.76317 | 0.7584
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.32521 | 1.32254
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72651 | 0.72084
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.08996 | 1.08886
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.88069 | 0.87857
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 123.183 | 122.51
For today
- EUR: As unusual as it sounds a slow day in Asia, with the market drifting to below 1.1210 levels before moving into the Tokyo session and slow buying to the 1.1230 level, the market then held in the 1.1220 areas through to the grey, Topside offers remain into the 1.1300 levels and while the market pushed close yesterday the pattern remains with sellers likely to sell in front of the level again however, while the level remains weak stops are likely to build just beyond the level and the market could see a small short squeeze through to the 1.1340-60 areas and limited offers that could slow the move, stronger offers then make an appearance on a move towards the 1.1400 area and likely to see some congestive offers through the level, Downside bids light back through the 1.1200 levels with congestion likely through to the 1.1150 areas with weak stops likely on a push through the 1.1140 area and the 1.1100 becoming quickly vulnerable, a test through the 1.1080 will see stronger stops with light congestion through to 1.1000 level and possibly strong sentimental bids.
- GBP: A quiet range around the 1.2750 level with the market making an early test to the 1.2760 level before drifting through into the grey hour touching towards the 1.2740 level and holding around 1.2750, Topside offers are likely to increase as the market approaches the 1.2850 areas with congestion through the level and increasing into the 1.2900 areas, a push through the level will possibly see some weak stops however, the congestion continues with strong offers likely to increase further towards the 1.3000 level. Downside bids light through the current area and into the 1.2700 level with some possible bids appearing into the area however, the market is likely vulnerable to the 1.2650 levels where speculative bids are likely to be waiting in front of the 1.2630 support line.
- JPY: A little bit more of a range but still limited with the market holding through towards Tokyo around the opening 109.80 areas before dipping into the new session to test the 109.30 levels and then slowly rising back through the opening levels to set the high for the day around the 109.80 level before again settling into the opening levels to the run to the grey hour. Downside bids into the 1.0900 areas likely to be stubborn with weak stops but improving bids moving in around the 107.50 level however, the downside is open to a larger move if the market can push through that level. Topside offers light back through the 110.00 level with some congestion into the 110.50 areas and opening a return to the 111.00 levels and stops through that area.
- AUD: A quiet start with the market ranging tightly around the 0.7590 areas and once the employment numbers were released with better figures the market rose quickly to the 0.7630 area and a strong resistance line turning the market lower again for a drift to the 0.7615 area to the grey hour, Topside above into the 0.7630 areas with a push through likely to see some weak stops and limited offers initially however, the congestion is likely to continue for a good distance and any move will likely take time to push through to the 77 cent areas with possibly stronger stops on a move through the level, and as with before the market is likely to find congestion then continuing with strong offers the closer the market gets to the 0.7770 areas. Downside bids light back through the 76 cent level with congestion all the way through the 75 cent levels slowing the move lower.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
NZD:
OECD says major vulnerability for NZ is high household debt
OECD sees RBNZ starting to raise rates from late 2018
OECD short term economic outlook is strong
OECD debt to income tool should be added to RBNZ toolkit
OECD NZD may be slightly over valued
NZ Economy grew less than forecast in Q1
Consumption appears less responsive to housing wealth
JPY:
Japanese net-bought foreign bonds into June
USD:
Special counsel Mueller investigating Trump for possible obstruction of justice Washington post
USD nurses losses as Trump investigation over shadows Fed move
EUR:
Greece seeks bailout, debt breakthroughs
AUD:
Australian jobs surge drives unemployment rate to 4 year low
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
22:45Â Â Â NZD Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q1 A 0.50% | C 0.70% | P 0.40%
01:00Â Â Â AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Inflation Expectation Jun A 3.60% | P 4.00%
01:30Â Â Â AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Change May A 42K | C 10.0K | P 37.4K
01:30Â Â Â AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate May A 5.50% | C 5.70% | P 5.70%
07:15Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Producer & Import Prices M/M May C 0.00% | P -0.20%
07:15Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Producer & Import Prices Y/Y May C 0.90% | P 0.80%
07:30Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â SNB Sight Deposit Interest Rate C -0.75% | P -0.75%
07:30Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â SNB 3-Month Libor Lower Target Range C -1.25% | P -1.25%
07:30Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â SNB 3-Month Libor Upper Target Range C -0.25% | P -0.25%
08:30Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M May C -0.90% | P 2.30%
09:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Apr C 22.4B | P 23.1B
11:00Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Rate Decision C 0.25% | P 0.25%
11:00Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Asset Purchase Target Jun C 435B | P 435B
11:00   GBP      MPC Official Bank Rate Votes C 1–0—6 | P 1–0–7
11:00   GBP      MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes C 0–0—7 | P 0–0–8
12:30Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Shipments M/M Apr C 0.90% | P 1.00%
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Import Price Index M/M May C -0.10% | P 0.50%
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Empire State Manufacturing Index Jun C 6 | P -1
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (JUN 10) C 241K | P 245K
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Jun C 25 | P 38.8
13:15Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production May C 0.20% | P 1.00%
13:15Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Capacity Utilization May C 76.80% | P 76.70%
14:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAHB Housing Market Index Jun C 70 | P 70
14:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P 106B
20:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net Long-term TIC Flows Apr CÂ 37.3B | P 59.8B
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: The Euro traded quietly through the first half of the day with the market rising from the 1.1210 levels through to the 1.1220 areas in Tokyo but then ranging quietly into the grey hours, limited buying extended the highs a little before the London session opened, a steady drift through the early part of London testing the 1.1200 areas before the release of the CPI numbers and a weaker set of numbers than expected throwing the market off balance as expectations of a rate rise for the day suddenly looking less than expected, the Euro moved quickly through the 1.1250 areas and gradually up to the 1.1270 level to grind through to around the 1.1295 levels before running out of time and dipping slowly back to the 1.1270 areas, the rate announcement was as expected and the market dropped quickly back to challenge the 1.1200 level setting the low just through the level before stabilizing and holding the 1.1220 areas into the close, Yellen spoke on the weaker inflationary news, stating important not to overreact to a few inflation readings, have taken note of several weak core inflation readings, conditions in place for inflation to move up, could put balance sheet unwind into effect relatively soon.
- GBP: A quiet Cable holding around the 1.2750 areas through into the London session, with employment numbers holding steady and weekly earnings showing a dip the Cable pushed up quickly to the 1.2790 levels before holding for a period before dipping back to hold the 1.2730 areas to hold into the US numbers, the CPI numbers were weaker than expected and the Cable climbed quickly and having already been cleared to the 1.2790 areas the market pushed through to the 1.2810 levels before dipping a little and running again with the release of the Trump news, Fed hike saw the Cable dropping back again and the market ran through to the close holding around the opening levels.
- JPY: The USDJPY opened around the 110.10 areas and ranged into the London session holding around the 110.00-10 areas before slowly rising through to the 110.30 level and into the NYK session, the CPI numbers saw the USD dropping quickly and the support lines were quickly blown away as the market pushed down to the 109.20 levels and slowly pushed just through the 109.00 areas before holding around the 109.10 levels through to the rate rise, the market saw a limited rise with the market pushing through to the 109.80 areas with the Trump news taking some of the movements sting and finishing the day around the 109.60 levels.
- AUD: A strong day for the Oz with the market struggling through the early part of the session seeing a slow rise from the 0.7530 levels to the 0.7550 areas London increased the buying and the rise while still steady saw the market pushing through the 0.7560 level and triggering some weak stops to push through the 0.7580 areas and holding into the NYK session, US CPI numbers saw the market quickly moving through the 76 cent areas and further stops opening the mark to the resistance line around the 0.7630 areas and the market holding through to the FED release, market then saw the 0.7570 level before holding around the 0.7590 areas.
Yesterday’s premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Current Account Balance Q1 A 0.24B | C 1.00B | P -2.34B | -2.42B
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Consumer Confidence Jun A -1.80% | P -1.10%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Y/Y May A 10.70% | C 10.80% | P 10.70%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD Y/Y May A 8.60% | C 8.80% | P 8.90%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Y/Y May A 6.50% | C 6.50% | P 6.50%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Apr (F) A 4.00% | C 4.10% | P 4.00%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Capacity Utilization M/M Apr A 4.30% | P -1.60%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â German CPI M/M May (F) A -0.20% | C -0.20% | P -0.20%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â German CPI Y/Y May (F) A 1.50% | C 1.50% | P 1.50%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Jobless Claims Change May A 7.3K | C 10.0K | P 19.4K | R 22K
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Claimant Count Rate May A 2.30% | P 2.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â ILO Unemployment Rate 3M Apr A 4.60 | C 4.60% | P 4.60%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y Apr A 2.10% | C 2.40% | P 2.40% | R 2.30%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Apr A 0.50% | C 0.50% | P -0.10%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Employment Q/Q Q1 A 0.40% | C 0.30% | P 0.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M May A -0.10% | C 0.00% | P 0.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y May A 1.90% | C 2.00% | P 2.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core M/M May A 0.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core Y/Y May A 1.70% | C 1.90% | P 1.90%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Advance Retail Sales May A -0.30% | C 0.10% | P 0.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Less Autos May A -0.30% | C 0.20% | P 0.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Business Inventories Apr A -0.30% | C 0.30% | P 0.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A -1.7M | C -2.3M | P 3.3M
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â FOMC Rate Decision A 1.25% | C 1.25% | P 1.00%
Good Luck,
Andy
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