Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 112.354 | EURUSD 113.386 | AUDUSD 0.7583 | NZDUSD 0.7284 | USDCAD 1.31991 | USDCHF 0.96044 | GBPUSD 1.28149 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.13557 | 1.13355
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 112.293 | 112.034
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.28280 | 1.28084
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.96065 | 0.95938
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.76170 | 0.75804
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.31959 | 1.31385
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72849 | 0.7259
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.08984 | 1.08884
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.88584 | 0.88454
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 127.357 | 127.072
For today
- EUR: A limited range but better volume through the session rising from the lows just after the opening the market slowly pushed through the 1.1350 areas to test weakly to the 1.1355 areas before holding around the 1.1350 level for the rest of the session, Topside offers seem to be around the sentimental 1.1350 areas for the moment however, a push through will likely struggle to push towards the 1.1380-1.1400 areas with new highs for the year the next leg will move into the summer ranges from 2016 with the market likely to meet congestion until 1.1420 is cleared and stops appear and stronger offers appear through towards the 1.1480 levels, Downside bids likely to appear into the 1.1300-1.1280 areas with some congestion on a move through the levels and possible stops in the mix, the congestion is likely to continue through to the 1.1240 levels before stronger bids again begin to appear on the approach to the 1.1220-00 level, through the level is likely to be patchy but overall bid through to the 1.1140 area.
- GBP: A very quiet day so far for the Cable with the market trading in a tight 1.2810-20 areas with only minor breaks of the levels through to the grey hours. A weak attempt yesterday to fill the gap on the charts from Jun 9th drop saw the market attempting to push through the 1.2850 levels in a market with little data or news for GBP, today will likely see those offers around the same level and limited congestion above the level, possibility of stops appearing again on a push through the 1.2860 areas and the market then seeing further resistance into the 1.2900 areas, weak stops on a push through the 1.2910-20 areas sees congestion into the 1.2950 area and then stronger offers appearing on any attempt to push towards the 1.3000 level. Downside bids possibly decent into the 1.2800 level with congestion down to the 1.2765 level however, as we’ve seen before the market is always quick to react to the right type of news and buyers become scarce, congestive bids likely around the 1.2750 areas with limited potential for stops.
- JPY: USDJPY saw strong selling from the opening but with only limited effect on the USDJPY dropping from the opening highs the market pushed into the Tokyo session testing the 112.20 levels and fixing supply saw the market push towards the 112.05 levels before ranging through the session between the low and 112.20 to the grey hours, Downside bids light through the 112.00 areas with some congestive bids likely through to the 111.50 areas and lighter bids on a move back to the 111.00 areas with stops likely on a move through the area, stronger bids likely into the 110.50 levels, topside offers into the 113.00 areas with the offers likely to be strong through to the 113.25 areas before stops appear and the market opens up to test towards the 113.80-114.00 level while there is possible stops around the level the market is likely to struggle beyond there.
- AUD: The Oz saw a steady grind back to above the 76 cent level pushing through to the 0.7615 areas from the opening 0.7580 levels before slipping back to hold around the 76 cent area to the grey hour, Topside offers through the 0.7640 levels and even a push through to the 0.7660 areas will see congestive offers appearing all the way to the stronger 77 cent areas. Downside bids light but consistent all the way through to the 0.7560 areas with stronger bids likely to appear from there down into the 0.7540 levels and only a push through to the 0.78530 areas will see weak stops and the market testing the 75 cent tepidly.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
USD:
Fed’s Harker says USD isn’t high on his list of risks
Trio of Fed speakers warn on valuations with eyes on tightening – BBG
IMF:
Cuts US outlook, calls Trumps growth target unlikely
NZD:
RBNZ publishes statement of intent outlining priorities
RBNZ Gov. says outlook for economic growth remains positive, albeit with considerable uncertainty
RBNZ says financial system remains sound and continues to perform its functions effectively
RBNZ says a key domestic risk continues to be the performance of the housing market
RBNZ says NZ$ TWI has fallen since early 2017, if sustained, will help to rebalance growth
CAD:
BoC’s Poloz says rate cuts have done their job
CNY/KRW:
China’s CNPC suspends fuel sales to N.Korea as risks mount sources
AUD:
Higher commodity prices help equity markets to rise
CNY:
China economy improves in Q2 but deleveraging poses risks – survey
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
06:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â German Import Price Index M/M May C -0.60% | P -0.10%
06:00Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â UBS Consumption Indicator May P 1.48
08:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone M3 Y/Y May C 5.00% | P 4.90%
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Advance Goods Trade Balance May C -66.2B | P -67.1B
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Inventories May (P) C 0.20% | P -0.50%
14:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Pending Home Sales M/M May C 0.80% | P -1.30%
14:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories P -2.5M
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A quiet Asian session saw the Euro slowly rising through to the London session testing the 1.1200 areas from the opening 1.1180, grey hour sellers were limited chasing the market back to the opening levels, Draghi comments seemed to be more accommodative as Eurozone improves and the Euro moved quickly higher from that point pushing quickly to the 1.1240 level before grinding through to the NYK session testing to the 1.1280 areas, even the better than expected consumer confidence numbers in the US couldn’t save the USD and the Euro continued pushing triggering weak stops above the 1.1300 levels and continuing to grind to the 1.1340 level before slowing and struggling with the level to finish the day just off the highs.
- GBP: A quiet Asian session saw the market rise slowly through to the opening in London testing the 1.2740 levels from the opening 1.2720 area, grey hours selling saw the market slip back to the opening levels before being dragged along by the Euro, the market pushed slowly to the 1.2770 areas and struggled with the 1.2750 area until the NYK session started and a steady drive higher through the day to late in the session, the push through the 1.2800 levels saw the market spike to the 1.2860 areas as weak stops found little offering interest and eventually settled to trade around the 1.2830 level before late profit taking saw the market dipping back to the 1.2820 levels into the close.
- JPY: The days mover was the Euro for the most part and the USDJPY saw a better range than we’ve seen in a few days, the opening in Asia saw the market moving off the 111.85 areas and moved slowly up through the 112.00 areas into the midsession before drifting back to the opening levels into the grey hour, the move in the Euro saw the USDJPY struggling and the market tested back to the 111.50 area in the initial rally of the Euro as cross EURJPY selling moved in, once the initial rush in Euro was over the cross switched directions and the USDJPY started a steady rise through into the NYK session pressing against the 112.00 level again, consumer confidence helped the USDJPY push through the level triggering some light weak stops and the market moved to the highs as the London session finished, the market held the 112.45 areas for a short period before dipping back to the 112.10 areas and attempting a second push with less success into the close.
- AUD: A weak day for the Oz with the market drifting to its lows in the early part of the Asian session, testing lightly through the 0.7580 level before pushing higher on comments on GDP from the Premier in China, the market having tested repeatedly the 76 cent areas eventually moved through into the early London buyers and the market pushed through the level and gradually tested to the 0.7625 areas before returning to the 0.7605 areas and dropping through the 76 cent level into the NYK session, the US confidence numbers saw the Oz dropping back to the opening levels and trading in a narrow range to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (NZD) May A 103M | C 420M | P 578M | R 536M
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Financial Stability Report
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CBI Realized Sales Jun A 12 | C 2 | P 2
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Apr A 5.70% | C 5.90% | P 5.90%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Confidence Jun A 118.9 | C 116 | P 117.9 | R 117.6
Good Luck,
Andy
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