Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 112.302 | EURUSD 1.13772 | AUDUSD 0.76384 | NZDUSD 0.7023 | USDCAD 1.30414 | USDCHF 0.95969 | GBPUSD 1.29258 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.14196 | 1.13744
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 112.425 | 112.162
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.29760 | 1.29289
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.95963 | 0.95613
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.76648 | 0.76352
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.30412 | 1.30201
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.73323 | 0.73027
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.09285 | 1.09168
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.88083 | 0.87921
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 128.137 | 127.753
For today
- EUR: A quiet start to the session saw the market holding into the Tokyo session before slowly grinding higher, the push through the 1.1390 areas saw some quick strong buying triggering some stops on the move through the 1.1405 areas to touch towards the 1.1420 level before slipping slowly back to hold around the 1.1400-10 areas for the fun to the grey hour. Topside offers light through to the 1.1420 areas with much of the offers cleared from the market, a push through the level is likely to see weak stops and possibly light breakout buying with limited offers appearing around the 1.1450 level the market opens for a test to the 1.1480-1.1500 level and possibly stronger offers with strong stops likely through the level. Downside bids are likely to be fairly thin with limited bids into the 1.1350 areas and stops likely through the 1.1340 areas and possibly light around the sentimental areas, and old support line around the 1.1280 level is possibly looking beyond its sell by date and the market remaining weak until the 1.1220-00 areas where some congestion appears.
- GBP: The Carney commentary continued to interest the market and the move through the 1.1400 levels was sufficient to help Cable push through the high from yesterday, but only just, the move took half the session and was unable to challenge the 1.2980 level and drifted from the highs to hold just above the 1.2950 level into the grey hour, Topside offers through the highs to the 1.3000 level and the Jun 9th move negated, some weak stops likely through the area with some congestion and stronger offers into the 1.3050 areas before the market has the ability to challenge the years highs and open up to the ranges from last year. Downside bids light through the 1.2900 areas with possible weak stops on a move through and the 1.2800 quickly achievable and possibly stronger bids appearing as the market resets its levels after the last few days moving up.
- JPY: USDJPY remains quiet for the moment opening around the 112.30 level the market centred on that area through the session with early push towards the 112.40 cross dominated after the early gains the move into the Tokyo session saw the market drift off to the 112.15 level before rising back to the opening levels for the move into the grey hours and limited news. Downside bids light through the 112.00 areas with some congestive bids likely through to the 111.50 areas and lighter bids on a move back to the 111.00 areas with stops likely on a move through the area, stronger bids likely into the 110.50 levels, topside offers into the 113.00 areas with the offers likely to be strong through to the 113.25 areas before stops appear and the market opens up to test towards the 113.80-114.00 level while there is possible stops around the level the market is likely to struggle beyond there.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7640 levels the market struggled for movement into the Tokyo session before eventually making steady headway pushing slowly through to the 0.7660 levels and finding little impetus to push to far through, Topside offers through the highs and into the 77 cent level are likely to be fairly strong, even through the level the market is likely to find congestive offers all the way through to the 0.7770 levels and strong offers then appearing over the next 50-60 pips with a couple of trend lines, downside bids congestive with likely weak stops on a drop through the 0.7600 but continuing in the same vein through to the 75 cent level.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
CNY:
China’s Yuan jumps top strongest level in nearly 8mths on weaker USD
China urges major economies to return to rate normalization
USD:
US Fed approves large bank investor pay-out plans
JPY:
Japan retail sales rise 2% falling short of expectations
CAD:
BoC’s Patterson sees disparity in goods and services inflation
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Trade Y/Y May A 2.00% | C 2.80% | P 3.20%
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ANZ Business Confidence Jun A 24.8 | P 14.9
06:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â German GfK Consumer Confidence Jul C 10.4 | P 10.4
08:30Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Mortgage Approvals May C 64K | P 65K
09:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Business Climate Indicator Jun C 0.93 | P 0.9
09:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Economic Confidence Jun C 109.5 | P 109.2
09:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Industrial Confidence Jun C 2.8 | P 2.8
09:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services Confidence Jun C 12.8 | P 13
09:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Consumer Confidence Jun (F) C -1.3 | P -1.3
12:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â German CPI M/M Jun (P) C 0.00% | P -0.20%
12:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â German CPI Y/Y Jun (P) C 1.40% | P 1.50%
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP (Annualized) Q1 (T) C 1.20% | P 1.20%
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Price Index Q1 (T) C 2.20% | P 2.20%
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (JUN 24) C 240K | P 241K
14:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P 61B
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: Euro’s ground a little higher through the Asian session to the 1.1350 areas and traded through into the London session holding around the level, USD weakness continued to dominate the markets London saw the market widening in range testing through to the 1.1390 levels and chopping back and forth to the 1.1350 on the run through to the NYK session, data was limited and disappointing, NYK saw the Euro drop back quickly with ECB saying markets misjudged Draghi speech, Carney comments on higher interest rate necessary with Euro’s already dropping back with EURGBP selling taking the Euro to the 1.1290 levels from just off the highs the move of GBP then dragged the Euro with it bouncing off that low and pushing straight back to the 1.1340 areas and grinding back to the highs, the run to the close was quiet with the market holding around the 1.1380 areas.
- GBP: Cable was very quiet through the first half of the day with the market opening around the 1.2815 areas and then holding through to the NYK session with a minor dip through the 1.2800, the market struggled for movement testing towards the 1.2830 levels, Carneys commentary on rate rises at some stage saw Cable lift quickly through to the 1.2900 levels and weak stops pushed the market through with the market testing through to the 1.2970 levels before running out of steam on strong volume, EURGBP dropped back some 100 pips with early weakness in Euro and then the strong GBP however, the market slipped from the highs and drifted to the 1.2920 areas and then ranged in an ever decreasing pattern to the close holding above the level.
- JPY: A rangy day with the JPY affected by crosses as the market for the moment remains stuck in a tight range above 112.00 but unable to push through the 112.50 levels for the moment. Drifting from the opening 112.35 level the market in Asia dropped quietly back to the 112.05 areas before holding just above the level into the grey hour, the market recovered at this point either with grey hour buyers taking the market to its highs just above the 112.40 level, strong selling then appeared in London and the market saw the early buyers cleared quickly and the market testing down to the 111.85 level, the market recovered and ranged around the 112.15 level through into the NYK session and started to push towards the highs again once the London session closed and finished the day around the opening levels.
- AUD: Opening towards the lows of the day the Oz moved into the Tokyo session slowly holding those lows before moving steadily higher through the first few hours to push back above the 0.7615 area, ranging through to the London session the market held above the 76 cent level dipping only on the London open and then moving through to the NYK session holding below 76 cent, not what you might call exciting the early buyers cut their positions in the run towards NYK and the market made the lows pushing through the 0.7580 areas before moving back to hold quietly into the NYK opening, USD weakness saw the Oz push steadily higher again and this time the grind continued through the 0.7620 levels triggering some weak stops on a move to the 0.7640 level before holding quietly through to the close moving around the highs.
Yesterday’s premiership results
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â German Import Price Index M/M May A -1.00% | C -0.60% | P -0.10%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â UBS Consumption Indicator May A 1.39 | P 1.48 | R 1.34
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone M3 Y/Y May A 5.00% | C 5.00% | P 4.90%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Advance Goods Trade Balance May A -66.0B | C -66.2B | P -67.1B | R -67.0B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Inventories May (P) A 0.30% | C 0.20% | P -0.50% | R -0.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Pending Home Sales M/M May A -0.80% | C 0.80% | P -1.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A 0.1M | C -2.1M | P -2.5M
Good Luck,
Andy
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