Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 112.17 | EURUSD 1.14406 | AUDUSD 0.76829 | NZDUSD 0.72916 | USDCAD 1.30051 | USDCHF 0.95586 | GBPUSD 1.30078 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.14457 | 1.14269
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 112.146 | 111.729
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.30300 | 1.30046
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.95717 | 0.95531
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.77122 | 0.76794
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.30006 | 1.2972
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.73362 | 0.72932
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.09487 | 1.09306
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.87981 | 0.87763
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 128.336 | 127.807
For today
- EUR: Another strong volume day through the Asian session saw the market in Euros actually doing very little with the market opening around the 1.1440 areas and limited topside into the 45 area, the move into the Tokyo session saw some steady EURGBP selling filtering through and the market dipped back steadily into the 1.1420 areas before testing back to the highs, the market then held the level through to the grey hour, plenty of data for the day with unemployment numbers in Germany and Eurozone inflationary numbers likely to be of import, Topside offers into the 1.1460 areas and while there maybe some light stops around, the 1.1480-1.1500 level is likely to be key to any larger moves to the topside with possible strong stops on a push through the 1.1500 once those offers are removed and limited sentimental offers leaving the 1.1600 vulnerable. Downside bids likely to be light through to the 1.1320 areas with limited congestion until that point a push through the stronger congestion will slow any decline and weak stops likely on a dip into the 1.1280 area.
- GBP: Opening a little weaker the market soon started the steady grind higher and while it was not particularly exciting it pushed off the 1.3000 areas to test the 1.3030 areas with EURGBP doing plenty of work albeit only 20 pips of selling, the market then held through the rest of the session around the 1.3020 areas to the grey hour, Topside offers continue through to the 1.3050 levels and likely to be strong however a push through the level is likely to see strong stops appearing and the market opening up to the ranges to the post Brexit levels with limited congestion until the stronger 1.3200 areas. Downside bids light through the 1.3000 areas and possibly stops building through the level however, a move through the level is likely to be limited and bids are likely to start appear into the 1.2950-00 areas, GDP figures are to watch to some extent however, of more import will likely be inflationary numbers in a couple of weeks.
- JPY: USDJPY opened around the 112.10 areas and really didn’t get going with the early Tokyo sellers moving in to push back to trade quietly through the early part of the session around the 112.00 areas, the market pushed below the 111.90 levels eventually triggering some weak stops on a move into the 111.70’s before rising slowly back to the 111.90 level, Topside offers light through to the 112.80 areas having cleared much of the offers out of the way however, from there for the moment the offers are strong and likely to continue through 113.00 to the 113.30 areas before any weakness really appears and weak stops, then patchy offers into a weak 114.00 area. Downside bids limited with congestive bids into the 111.50 areas and slowing any move towards the 111.00 areas however a dip through there is likely to see some weak stops and the 110.50 level seeing some congestive bids.
- AUD: While the RBA would prefer to see the market in the lower part of the recent range interest rates in Australia are the most attractive and given everyone else is looking at raising rates or tapering it would give some credence to this being the low in interest rates for the RBA and thus the steady grind through the congestion, opening around the 0.7680 levels the move into Tokyo saw the Oz pushing slowly above the 77 cent level and test weakly above the 0.7710 area before holding around the figure to the grey hour, Congestion continues though and the market sees strong offers likely to appear from the 0.7770 areas on wards and the 0.7800 area in particular, a push through the level may see some weak stops however, I would expect the market to be offered consistently until a push through the 0.7840 areas with the possibility of strong stops appearing above the highs of last year. Not so much weak to the downside however, the congestion for the moment is likely to be centred around the sentimental areas with 76 cent likely to be a strong point with stops light on a move through.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
GBP:
UK consumer confidence drops to lowest level since Brexit vote
BoE’s Haldane says inflation causing pinch for the poor Guardian
USD/KRW:
S.Korean businesses to invest $12.8B in US
AUD:
Hedge funds buy into Oz options expecting RBA to join hawks
Bonds:
Global bond selloff deepens amid hints at the end of stimulus
USD:
The deficit is growing more quickly than Congress expected WPT
USD/EUR:
Merkel issues warning to Trump ahead of G20 summit on Paris agreement
CNY:
China factory growth fastest in 3 months as new orders, output rise
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits M/M May A 7.00% | P -7.60% | R -7.40%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â GfK Consumer Confidence Jun A Â -10 | C -7 | P -5
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Jobless Rate May A 3.10% | C 2.80% | P 2.80%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Household Spending Y/Y May A -0.10% | C -0.50% | P -1.40%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â National CPI Core Y/Y May A 0.40% | C 0.40% | P 0.30%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Jun A 0.00% | C 0.20% | P 0.10%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M May (P) A -3.30% | C -3.00% | P 4.00%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing PMI Jun A 51.7 | C 51 | P 51.2
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Non-manufacturing PMI Jun A 54.9 | P 54.5
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Y/Y May A -0.30%| C -0.70% | P 1.90%
06:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â German Retail Sales M/M May C 0.30% | P -0.20%
07:00Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â KOF Leading Indicator Jun C 102.5 | P 101.6
07:55Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â German Unemployment Change Jun C -10K | P -9K
07:55Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â German Unemployment Rate Jun C 5.70% | P 5.70%
08:30Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Current Account (Pounds) Q1 C -16.5B | P -12.1B
08:30Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q1 (F) C 0.20% | P 0.20%
08:30Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Y/Y Q1 (F) C 2.00% | P 2.00%
08:30Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Index of Services 3M/3M Apr C 0.30% | P 0.20%
09:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Jun C 1.20% | P 1.40%
09:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI – Core Y/Y Jun (A) C 1.00% | P 0.90%
12:30Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP M/M Apr C 0.20% | P 0.50%
12:30Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Product Price M/M May P 0.60%
12:30Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Raw Materials Price Index M/M May P 1.60%
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Personal Income May C 0.30% | P 0.40%
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Personal Spending May C 0.10% | P 0.40%
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â PCE Deflator M/M May C -0.10% | P 0.20%
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â PCE Deflator Y/Y May C 1.50% | P 1.70%
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â PCE Core M/M May C 0.10% | P 0.20%
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â PCE Core Y/Y May C 1.40% | P 1.50%
13:45Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Chicago PMI Jun C 58 | P 59.4
14:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â U. of Michigan Confidence Jun (F) C 94.5 | P 94.5
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: Strong volumes through the day with the market opening around the 1.1380 areas the market moved into Tokyo starting a steady rise higher pushing through to the 1.1395 levels the market saw a sudden buying spree with weak stops on a move to the 1.1420 levels and a pause with the market slipping back to trade around the 1.1400 levels through into the London session, grey hour buying took the market to the 1.1430 levels and struggled just beyond that level through into the London opening, trading slowed for the Numbers drifting a little back towards the 1.1400 level and into the NYK session GDP figures were mixed but generally good however, as with the past few days bonds were under pressure again with the prospects of cheap money disappearing in the short term, Euro’s started a steady rise through the NYK session pushing through the close of London back to the highs around the 1.1435 level, with London out of the way the market continued its move pushing through offers to the 1.1445 level before finding the going too tough, it held the level from there to the close as trading lightened.
- GBP: Another strong performance for Cable with the market grinding through the profit taking in front of some tough levels, the market opened around the 1.2920 areas and the move into the Tokyo session saw the market pushing higher, with those opening levels not seen again, after a few hours of Tokyo the Cable had pushed to the 1.2975 areas and started a steady drift as the buying took a breather, the market then moved through to the grey hours holding around the 1.2950 levels, London were strong buyers from the opening with everyone focused on rising interest rates after Carney’s comments and Cable pushed through to spitting distance of the 1.3000 levels, buying declined in early London as the profit taking outweighed the buyers for a period and again the market dipped back to the 1.2950-60 areas for a slow run into the NYK session, the market then saw fresh impetus appearing and the market steadily moved back to challenge the 1.3000 level and held around the 1.2990 level for several hours before pushing through to the 1.3015 areas to hold around the figure area to the close.
- JPY: Just to prove a point, there is still a lot out there that are missing the point, as I read research after research on why USD is being sold, the point is it isn’t so much as USD selling more a consequence of everyone else now looking to taper there easy money, USDJPY opened around the 112.30 levels and traded quietly through the Asian session with barely 20 pips in the market, and as the market moved through into the London session USDJPY buying saw the market pushing above the 112.50 levels for the first time this weak having failed around the level several times, the market then held through into the NYK session around the 112.50-60 areas before pushing quickly through to the 112.90 areas on the release of the US numbers, with everything broadly in line, once the market tested the 112.90 areas it was all one way as the market dropped back to take out the 112.50 levels and a tight channel through to the London close saw the market again testing all the way back to the 111.80 areas before finding sufficient support to hold to the close only slightly off the opening levels.
- AUD: The Oz ground through the 76 cent levels slowly through the day, and while the congestion did suggest hard going the move off the opening lows was never returned too as Oz traded from just below 0.7640 to initially fail the 0.7660 areas in early Tokyo, the market moved through to the grey hours quietly before early day traders moved in to take the market to the 0.7680 level and a long drawn out range through to the close testing through the highs by a few pips only and finishing the day tantalizingly close to that 77 cent area.
Yesterday’s premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Trade Y/Y May A 2.00% | C 2.80% | P 3.20%
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ANZ Business Confidence Jun A 24.8 | P 14.9
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â German GfK Consumer Confidence Jul A 10.6 | C 10.4 | P 10.4
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Mortgage Approvals May A 65K | C 64K | P 65K
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Business Climate Indicator Jun A 1.15 | C 0.93 | P 0.9
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Economic Confidence Jun A 111.1 | C 109.5 | P 109.2
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Industrial Confidence Jun A 4.5 | C 2.8 | P 2.8
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services Confidence Jun A 13.4 | C 12.8 | P 13
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Consumer Confidence Jun (F) A -1.3 | C -1.3 | P -1.3
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â German CPI M/M Jun (P) A 0.20% | C 0.00% | P -0.20%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â German CPI Y/Y Jun (P) A 1.60% | C 1.40% | P 1.50%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP (Annualized) Q1 (T) A 1.40% | C 1.20% | P 1.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Price Index Q1 (T) A 1.90% | C 2.20% | P 2.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (JUN 24) A 244K | C 240K | P 241K | R 242K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A 46B | C 50B | P 61B
Good Luck,
Andy
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