Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 113.282 | EURUSD 1.13468 | AUDUSD 0.76052 | NZDUSD 0.72965 | USDCAD 1.29368 | USDCHF 0.96538 | GBPUSD 1.29196 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.13687 | 1.13452
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 113.357 | 112.828
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.29482 | 1.2919
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.96511 | 0.96349
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.76243 | 0.76042
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.29404 | 1.29295
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72968 | 0.72755
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.09584 1.09504
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.87890 | 0.87786
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 128.645 | 128.228
For today
- EUR: A slow rise from the opening 1.1345 levels pushing into the Tokyo session around the 1.1355 areas and holding for a brief period before starting a steady rise to the 1.1370 level before slipping slowly back to the 1.1355 areas and into the grey hour, Topside offers likely into the 1.1380 level are possibly weak with weak stops above the 1.1400 areas before congestive offers appear with stronger offers likely to appear on a move through to the 1.1440 level, stronger stops are likely to be tempered by another round of strong offers running through the 1.1480-1.1500 levels with the market then opening to possibly larger upside potential. Downside bids likely to be light through to the 1.1300 areas weak stops on a push through the 1.1275 areas likely to see the market opening to the 1.1200 areas where stronger bids are likely to appear.
- GBP: A quiet rise through the early part of the Asian session pushing from the opening 1.2920 levels and trading towards the 1.2950 areas before running out of steam and dipping back just as quickly to the opening levels, Topside offers light through the 1.2980 level with stronger offers likely to appear on move through the 1.3000 level with the closer to the 1.3040-50 area the stronger the offers appear, stops on a break through the 1.3050 levels are likely to see the market rise quickly with sentimental levels the only resistance to the 1.3200 areas. Downside bids into the 1.2900 areas are likely to be light with congestion likely to appear on a move through that level through to the 1.2800 areas before stronger bids start to appear just below.
- JPY: Opening around the 113.30 areas the market edged a little higher through to the 113.35 level before dropping quickly back as tensions continue to rise in the region, the market tested to the 113.00 level into the Tokyo session and then slowly drifted off to test the 112.80 areas into midsession, the market quietly pushed back from the lows trading through the 113.00 level again to hold into the grey hours around the 113.10 areas. Topside offers through the 113.30 area is likely to be light with stronger offers then appearing as the market approaches the 113.80-114.00 levels with limited congestion on a move towards the level, a push through the 114.00 level will likely see some weak stops appearing however, they are possibly light with stronger offers appearing on a move towards the 114.50 area. Downside bids into the 112.50 level with congestion on a move through that level to the 111.85 supportive areas with stronger congestion from then to the 111.00 areas.
- AUD: A very quiet Oz today with the market moving away from the 76 cent opening levels to push just above the 0.7620 areas and holding between there and 0.7610 into the grey hour, Light offers likely to the 0.7630 areas with limited congestion until above the 0.7650 level and stronger offers then appearing above the 0.7680 areas through to 0.7700 area, with stronger offers on any push through towards the 0.7750 areas, strong stops on a move above that level could see a stab to the 78 cent level however, it would have to be a strong push. Downside bids into and through the 76 cent level with possible weak stops appearing around the 0.7580 level with congestion appearing through to the 0.7550-30 level, and stronger bids into 75 cent.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
KRW:
- Korea says Tuesdays ICBM launch successfully tested stage separation, warhead re-entry late stage control
Kim says will send gift package to US frequently
Aims to develop ICBM capable of hitting US in 2017
Won’t negotiate unless US scraps threats
- Korea holds joint ballistic missile drill with US
USD:
Sec of State Tillerson says new escalation of the threat to the US will enact stronger measures against N. Korea
Sec of State says action will be bought before UN Security Council
Fed eyes Sept announcement on balance sheet reduction – WSJ
USD/CNY/KRW:
- Korea, China must choose between two evils and Trump has no realistic options
RUB:
Russia said to oppose any move to deepen OPEC cuts at July talks
EUR:
Praet urges patience as Mersch says ECB could review QE makeup
GBP:
BoE’s Saunders says prepare for rate increases at some point
MPC remains divided over rate increase
CNY:
Beijing’s reversal on credit scores is ominous
AUD:
CBA in credit card crackdown
NZD:
New estate agent statistics show the Auckland property slump is getting real NZH
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Jun A -0.30% | P -0.40%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Caixin PMI Services Jun A 51.6 | C 52.9 | P 52.8
07:45Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Italy Services PMI Jun C 54.6 | P 55.1
07:50Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â France Services PMI Jun (F) C 55.3 | P 55.3
07:55Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Germany Services PMI Jun (F) C 53.7 | P 53.7
08:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services PMI Jun (F) C 54.7 | P 54.7
08:30Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Services PMI Jun C 53.5 | P 53.8
09:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Retail Sales M/M May C 0.30% | P 0.10%
14:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Factory Orders May C -0.50% | P -0.20%
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A quiet day over all with the early Asian session moving from the opening around 1.1360 rising slowly through to the 1.1375 areas before ranging around the 1.1370 through to the grey hour, early London were quick sellers to the 1.1335 level with a quick recovery as safe haven flows moved into the European market on the Korean missile tests and thin market conditions. The market recovered and then slowly slipped lower through the session trading around the 1.1350 levels in very quiet trading through to the close on this US independence day.
- GBP: Cable ranged quietly through the day with the market holding around the 1.2950 levels through to the UK PMI numbers, dipping back to 1.2920 and basing along that level through to the close. With only those slightly weaker PMI numbers influencing the market.
- JPY: USDJPY drifted lower through the Asian session as safe haven flows moved into the JPY after the N. Korean ICBM test, with the market moving through to the grey hour pushing from the opening around the 113.45 level to test into the 112.75 level before London opened and turned the market back to the 113.00 levels, once the market had moved above the 113.00 areas to trade around the 113.15-25 areas through to the close just above that range.
- AUD: The Oz had move movement than most of the others with the market steadily rising though to the 0.7680 areas from the opening around the 0.7660 level, the RBA announcement saw no hawkish comments and the rate staying unchanged the market reacted dropping back to the 0.7630 level before slowing and then drifting into the grey hours pushing towards the 76 cent level with London eventually pushing below the level for a brief period the remainder of the bank holiday session saw the market basing above the 76 cent levels but unable to push beyond the 0.7610 for most of the period.
Yesterday’s premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Monetary Base Y/Y Jun A 17.00% | C 19.20% | P 19.40%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M May A 0.60% | C 0.20% | P 1.00%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â RBA Rate Decision A 1.50% | C 1.50% | P 1.50%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction PMI Jun A 54.8 | C 55 | P 56
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PPI M/M May A -0.40% | C -0.20% | P 0.00%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PPI Y/Y May A 3.30% | C 3.50% | P 4.30%
Good Luck,
Andy
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