Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 113.215 | EURUSD 1.14232 | AUDUSD 0.7585 | NZDUSD 0.7274 | USDCAD 1.29779 | USDCHF 0.96051 | GBPUSD 1.29714 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.14259 | 1.14085
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 113.837 | 113.104
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.29750 | 1.29622
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.96149 | 0.96015
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.75962 | 0.75722
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.29933 | 1.29756
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72934 | 0.7275
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.09724 | 1.09669
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.88086 | 0.87973
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 129.918 | 129.178
For today
- EUR: Reasonable volumes for the day saw the Euro drifting from the opening to test to the 1.1410 areas before returning to the opening levels, strong offers likely to the 1.1450 level with likely weak stops on a move through the level before running into some resistance into the 114.80 levels through to the 1.1500 area, a break through the level will likely see stops appearing and the market open for a stronger move higher with limited offers on the 1.1600 areas. Downside bids light back through the 1.1400 areas with possible light stops on a move through the 1.1380 areas with limited congestion on a move back towards the 1.1320 level, stronger bids likely with stops likely to be limited.
- GBP: A quiet range for the Cable with the market drifting a little lower through the 1.2965 areas before regaining the 1.2975 level and holding in that range to the grey hour, Cable sees weak support into the 1.2900 levels with congestion likely through the level and into the 1.2850 areas, light stops likely through the level with congestive bids continuing into the 1.2800 areas and a stronger supportive line appearing around the 1.2765-70 level, Topside offers into the 1.3000 areas are likely to be limited however a push through the level is likely to see increasing offers on any move through to the 1.3050 areas and a strong push through sees weak stops and stop entries appearing for the move into the 1.3050-1.3500 range from before the October drop.
- JPY: Opening around the 113.20 areas the market slipped a little lower into the Tokyo session testing the 113.10 with some surprising numbers and a rise in 10y JGB’s USDJPY rose to the 113.30 areas to trigger some weak stops and moving to yesterday’s sticking point around the 113.50 another set of weak stops saw the market quickly rising to the 113.80 levels, with BoJ offering to buy unlimited amounts in fixed rate bond operation, the move into the later part of the session saw the market drifting off back through the 113.60 areas for the move into the grey hour, Topside offers through the 113.80 levels and likely to continue to the 114.20 area before stops appear in the market with stronger offers likely into the 114.40-50 areas and stronger stops appearing for a test to the 115.00 area.
- AUD Oz drifted from the opening with the market moving into Tokyo testing lightly through the: 0.7580 areas before bouncing on the first USDJPY rally testing back to the opening level, the second move saw some AUDJPY selling moving in and the Oz dropped through the 0.7575 before then recovering again to the opening level and then slowly rising through the 0.7590 as the market approached the grey hour. Downside bids through to the 0.7530 levels are limited with the support increasing around that level and into the 75 cent areas, if the market could break the level the stops could possibly be absorbed with congestion continuing to the 0.7450 areas, Topside offers congestive at best with strong offers are not likely to appear until the market can test to the 77 cent areas with those strong offers continuing into the 0.7750 areas.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
JPY:
BoJ offers to buy unlimited amount in fixed rate bond operation
BoJ to purchase benchmark 10Y notes at 0.110%
10Y JGB’s yield rises to 0.105%
USD:
Fed’s Fischer more clarity on Govt. policy is highly desirable
USD/CNY:
US bombers challenge China in S. China sea flyover
GBP:
UK retail has biggest June sales rise for 6yrs BDO survey
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Labour Cash Earnings Y/Y May A 0.70% | C 0.40% | P 0.50%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Real Cash Earnings Y/Y May A 0.10% | C -0.10% | P 0.00%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Leading Index May (P) A 104.7 | C 104.6 | P 104.2
05:45Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Jun C 3.20% | P 3.20%
06:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â German Industrial Production M/M May C 0.20% | P 0.80%
07:00Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Foreign Currency Reserves Jun C 695.0B | P 693.7B
08:30Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M May C 0.40% | P 0.20%
08:30Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Y/Y May C 0.20% | P -0.80%
08:30Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Production M/M May C 0.40% | P 0.20%
08:30Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Production Y/Y May C 0.90% | P 0.00%
08:30Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction Output M/M May C 0.60% | P -1.60%
08:30Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Visible Trade Balance (GBP) May C -10.9B | P -10.4B
12:00Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â NIESR GDP Estimate Jun P 0.20%
12:30Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net Change in Employment Jun P 54.5k
12:30Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Jun P 6.60%
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Change in Non-farm Payrolls Jun C 173K | P 138K
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Jun C 4.30% | P 4.30%
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Average Hourly Earnings M/M Jun C 0.30% | P 0.20%
14:00Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Ivey PMI Jun P 53.8
14:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P 46B
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: Euro’s moved slightly higher from the opening to push through the 1.1350 level before slipping slowly back on the move into the Tokyo session, light selling saw the market drifting off into the 1.1330 levels holding through to the grey hours in a very quiet range. The move into the London session saw the market moving higher back to the 1.1350 level holding through to the monetary policy meeting before starting a steady tight channelled rise through to the 1.1400 level with very little standing in the way with only limited resistance, the market pushed through from the London close to the 1.1420 areas to hold quietly into the close, Germany worried about a possible trade war with Europe probably overstating the situation however, the markets drive high was possibly down to the tapering coming comments and tomorrow will be too early to tell, and chapter 2 from the Bundesbank double talk.
- GBP: Cable traded quietly around the 1.2935 levels ranging down to the 1.2920 level and testing through to the 1.2945 area the move into early London was no difference, more talk of the UK remaining in the single market and customs union until final EU deal is signed came to the fore again with the market quickly rising through to the 1.2985 areas before dipping back to 1.2970 after the spike before slowly trading into the NYK session little changed from the opening, the market started a climb back to the 1.2975 levels as the Euro made strong gains and finished close to that level.
- JPY: USDJPY had a reasonably quiet day overall with the market opening around the 113.30 level and then trading around that number through the day dipping in the Asian session to the 112.90 level before rising steadily into the London session to test towards the 113.50 level and so on, nothing adventurous as I said but not the worst session I’ve seen.
- AUD: The Oz dipped from the opening in Tokyo to the 0.7590 levels and held briefly before bouncing on the release of the Trade balance number pushing to the 0.7610 areas before dropping back again, the market then held around the 76 cent level through into the London session, buying to the 0.7615 area was all the early part of the session could muster and the high for the day, the market dipped as Euro rose and the Oz pushed through the original low and continued to drift through the session with US numbers having little baring on the day.
Yesterday’s premiership results
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (AUD) May A 2.47B | C 1.11B | P 0.56B | R 0.09B
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Factory Orders M/M May A 1.00% | C 1.80% | P -2.10% | R -2.20%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Jun A -0.10% | C 0.00% | P 0.20%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Jun A 0.20% | C 0.30% | P 0.50%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Retail PMI Jun A 53.2 | P 52
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Jun A Â Â Â -19.30% | P 9.70%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â ADP Employment Change Jun A 158K | C 180K | P 253K | R 230K
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits M/M May A 8.90% | C 2.60% | P -0.20%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â International Merchandise Trade (CAD) May A -1.1B | C -0.5B | P -0.4B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance May A -46.5B | C -46.3B | P -47.6B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (JUL 01) A 248K | C 243K | P 244K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â ISM Services/Non-Manufacturing Composite Jun A 57.4 | C 56.5 | P 56.9
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A -6.3M | C -2.4M | P 0.1M
Good Luck,
Andy
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