Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 113.939 | EURUSD 1.14668 | AUDUSD 0.76377 | NZDUSD 0.72374 | USDCAD 1.2915 | USDCHF 0.96383 | GBPUSD 1.28475|
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.14895 | 1.14628
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 113.936 | 113.316
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.28648 | 1.28415
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.96412 | 0.96201
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.76644 | 0.76353
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.29179 | 1.28964
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72424 | 0.72161
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.10566 | 1.10498
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.89386 | 0.89196
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 130.671 | 130.064
For today
- EUR: Opening around the 1.1465 levels the market slowly ground through towards the 1.1490 areas in quiet trading and holding around that level into the grey hour, Topside offers still likely to be strong into the 1.1500 areas with a push through the level likely to see stops appearing and opening the market to a run to the 1.1600 with the potential of offers into the 1.1540-60 area likely to be light. Downside bids light back through the 1.1400 areas and possible weak stops on a move through the level with limited congestion into the 1.1340-60 areas the market will likely see stronger bids into the 1.1300 however, the market is very long now as the Trump/Russia issue begins to unravel.
- GBP: A limited recovery through into the Tokyo session testing through the 1.2860 areas before limited EURGBP buying moved in and pushing the Cable back to its lows and opening areas for the run into the grey hour, Topside offers light through the 1.2900 areas with stronger offers starting to move in above the 1.2950 areas and increasing into the 1.3000 levels. Downside bids into the 1.2800 area sees some strength with weak stops not likely to appear in any size until the 1.2760 areas with some congestion through the level but not likely to pose much support if the market is too collapse again however stronger bids through the 1.2700 areas and increasing into the 1.2650 level is key to any further loses for the moment.
- JPY: Opening just below the 114.00 level the market followed through from the NYK session in Tokyo trading in a tight channel from the opening into the 113.40 areas the market then ranged around that level quietly into the grey hour, Topside offers weak through the 114.00 level with stronger offers then appearing on a push to the 114.50 areas, a break through the level will likely see weak stops appearing and the market stabbing towards the 115.00 area with limited offers from the 114.80 level onwards, Downside bids light down into the 113.00 areas with weak stops mixed with congestion on a push through the 112.80 areas, and likely to increase into the 112.50 areas and stronger congestion running from there to the 112.00 decent bids.
- AUD: Oz still remains range bound and looking tired, the market rose from the opening levels around the 0.7635 areas and tested quietly through to the 0.7665 areas as the strengthening Yen gave the room to move back into the mid 76 cent areas, Topside offers into the 0.7680 areas and likely see congestion through the 77 cent areas with possible strength moving towards the 0.7770 levels and a stronger resistance line, even a push through the level is likely to see continuing offers once the stops are cleared and further resistance above the 78 cent level. Downside bids light around the 76 cent areas with weak stops on a move below the however, congestion quickly moves in to the 0.7550 areas where stronger bids are again suspected.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
USD:
Cohn is said to be top candidate to replace Yellen Politico
Donald Trump Jr’s Russia meeting creates more legal jeopardy
VP Pence distances himself as Russia probe threatens Trump
Republicans quiet over Trump Jr as Democrats come out swinging
Trump nominates China Critic as Deputy US trade representative
CNY:
PBoC newspaper says China should widen Yuan’s trading band
AUD:
Australians are divided over their economy like never before
USD/CNY:
US firms in China decry local favouritism as market improves
JPY:
Abe seeks to avoid repeat of his swift demise a decade ago
EUR:
France to cut 11B Euro’s in taxes next year – PM
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Domestic CGPI Y/Y Jun A 2.10% | C 2.10% | P 2.10%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Consumer Confidence Jul A 0.40% | P -1.80%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Tertiary Industry Index M/M May A -0.10% | C -0.60% | P 1.20%
08:30Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Jobless Claims Change Jun C 10.4K | P 7.3K
08:30Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Claimant Count Rate Jun P 2.30%
08:30Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â ILO Unemployment Rate 3M May C 4.60% | P 4.60%
08:30Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y May C 1.80% | P 2.10%
09:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Industrial Production M/M May C 1.00% | P 0.50%
14:00Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoC Rate Decision C 0.75% | P 0.50%
14:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories P -6.3M
15:15Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoC Press Conference
Â
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A quiet session for the most part with the market not coming awake until the NYK session, trading from the 1.1400 level opening to test towards the 1.1380 levels through into the grey hour, early London saw the market back to the opening levels however, from there the market struggled for ideas and only when the NYK session opened did the market start to move, several of the Fed in the market started the ball rolling with Brainard, Harker and Kaskari all with a similar theme and interest rates in doubt or paused with the Euro grinding through the levels with plenty of two way play through to the 1.1450 levels before popping to 1.1480 and the stronger offers, initially not backing away the market eventually drifted off the high for the close.
- GBP: A slow session through the Asian period with the market opening around the 1.2880 areas and slowly drifting into the 1.2870 areas, London were slow buyers however, the market moved easily through the 1.2900 areas and pushed to the 1.2920 area before spiking slightly higher and holding around the 1.2910 level into the NYK session, the comments in NYK were enough to send the Cable lower as the GBP reacted in a similar fashion to the USD and Cable dipped back to the 1.2850 level eventually trading through to the 1.2830 level with commentary from ForMin Johnson on extortionate divorce bill, and BoE’s Broadbent and reduced EU-UK trade post Brexit, that being some 2yrs away at least and still subjective. The Cable held around the 1.2840 areas slowly rising to hold around the 1.2850 into the close.
- JPY: USDJPY made some early gains having opened around the 114.00 areas testing through to the 114.20 levels and holding there into the grey hour, London were steady buyers and the market managed to run into the official opening trading around the 114.40 areas and unable to push through the 114.50 levels, the market slipped a little lower and traded through into the NYK session holding the 114.30 areas, and the dip we saw in the other markets didn’t appear till much later in the session however, it happened and the USDJPY dropped from the attempt to push through the 114.50 levels into the close of London and ran back to the 114.00 areas, the dip through triggered some weak stops and the market pushed to the 113.70 areas before holding the level and moving back into the 113.95 areas.
- AUD: Moving from the opening around the 0.7605 areas and trading quietly through to the Tokyo midsession hardly moving however, it did start to rise into midsession to test to the 0.7620 level and then holding 0.7610 areas into the grey hour, early buyers set the 0.7625 level high before London pushed it slowly back to the 0.7605 areas into the NYK session, as the USDJPY started to weaken so the Oz started to rise triggering some weak stops on the move through the early high and pushing through to the 0.7640 areas before ranging around the 0.7635 level to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BRC Retail Sales Monitor Y/Y Jun A 1.20% | C 0.50% | P -0.40%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Jun A 3.90% | C 3.90% | P 3.90% | 3.80%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAB Business Confidence Jun A 9 | P 7 | R 8
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Home Loans May A 1.00% | C 1.50% | P -1.90%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Machine Tool Orders Y/Y Jun (P) A 31.10% | P 24.50%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Jun A 213K | C 200K | P 195K
Good Luck,
Andy
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.
LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.
Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.
If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.