Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 113.169 | EURUSD 114.116 | AUDUSD 0.76784 | NZDUSD 0.72676 | USDCAD 1.27509 | USDCHF 0.96537 | GBPUSD 1.28847 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.14392 | 1.14133
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 113.528 | 112.862
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.29062 |1.28905
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.96511 | 0.96337
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.76980 | 0.76749
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.27658 | 1.27342
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72975 | 0.72469
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.10240 | 1.10172
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.88693 | 0.88474
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 129.661 | 129.084
For today
- EUR: A slow recovery from the Euro over the session with the market pushing through the 1.1420 levels into the early part of Tokyo, the market slowed as it matured and was unable to break through the 1.1440 areas holding just below the level through to the grey hour, Topside limited offers into the 1.1440-60 areas with the offers likely to increase on a move through the level with strong offers and possibly option barriers in front of that 1.1500 level, a strong push through the level is likely to see strong stops and the market opening to the 1.1600 level quickly before further offers appear, downside bids light through the 1.1400 areas however, the market needs to push firmly through the 1.1380 areas to see weak stops appearing and a run to the 1.1360-40 bids, this is likely to slow the market to some extent before the possibly stronger bids appear.
- GBP: Opening just above the 1.2880 areas the market and pushed repeatedly above the 1.2900 areas however it was unable to push to far through the 1.2905 on each move but remained in contact with the area through to the grey hour, Topside limited offers into the 1.2910 areas with light stops likely on a move through before stronger offers start to appear on a move through the 1.2950 areas increasing in size as the market approaches the 1.3000 level, with even greater offers likely into the 1.3050 areas. Downside bids light through to the 1.2820 levels with stronger bids likely from there into the 1.2800 areas, congestion continues through the level with only a strong break of the 1.2765 will open the downside with limited bids through the 1.2750 areas and 1.2700.
- JPY: Early buyers saw the USDJPY moving off the 113.15 areas and pushing into the Tokyo fix pushing through to the 113.50 levels however, once the initial demand was over with the market returned to its steady decline pushing through the opening to push through the figure area and test the 112.90 areas before returning to above the 113.00 level. Downside bids light through to the 112.80 areas, a strong break there will likely see weak stops appear and the market finding some congestion into the 112.50 areas continuing through to the 112.00 level and better bids. Topside offers light through to the 113.80-114.00 areas with some congestion continuing to the 114.50 areas and stronger offers then appearing on a move towards the 115.00 area.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7680 area the Oz rose into the Tokyo session testing the 0.7690 level before requiring a second run higher after the release of the CNY trade balance numbers with the Oz eventually creeping towards the 77 cent area, the move into the grey hour saw the market holding just below the figure area, Topside offers into the 77 cent area continues with congestion through to the 0.7720 areas before weak stops appear, and the market opening to the 0.7740-60 area, and stronger offers likely to move into the 0.7775 level even though there may be stops on a push through the level a strong sentimental area and a further resistance line into the 0.7840 areas should see limited impact and the market slowing on a break of the 78 cent level. Downside bids light through to the 76 cent areas with some limited congestion on a move back lower however, the market is stuck in this 73-77 cent level with congestion appearing all the way through the levels and you can draw your own conclusions from that, a drop through the 75 cent level does expose any weakness.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
USD:
Democrats introduce a new bill on Russia and Iran sanctions
Trump jets off to Paris as Russia crises plagues Washington
CNN video shows Trump with figures linked to Russia email controversy
USD/KRW:
US announce plan to renegotiate trade deal with S. Korea
GBP:
To publish key Brexit laws, start of defining test for PM
BoE Economist says it’s prudent to start raising interest rates
JPY:
BoJ faces crunch time amid global policy shift
CNY:
China says upholds UN sanctions as N. Korea trade rises
Imports and exports beat expectations for June
China H1 outbound investment plummets as capital outflow controls bite
NZD:
Consumer confidence eases in July ANZ survey
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RICS House Price Balance Jun A 7% | C 15% | P 17%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (USD) Jun A 42.8B | C 43.2B | P 40.8B
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (CNY) Jun A 394B | C 273B | P 282B
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Inflation Expectation Jul A 4.40% | P 3.60%
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI M/M Jun (F) C 0.20% | P 0.20%
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI Y/Y Jun (F) C 1.60% | P 1.60%
07:15Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Producer & Import Prices M/M Jun C 0.00% | P -0.30%
07:15Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Producer & Import Prices Y/Y Jun C 0.00% | P 0.10%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Housing Price Index M/M May C 0.20% | P 0.80%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI M/M Jun C 0.00% | P 0.00%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Y/Y Jun C 1.90% | P 2.40%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core M/M Jun C 0.20% | P 0.30%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core Y/Y Jun C 2.00% | P 2.10%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (JUL 08) C 245K | P 248Kk
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Fed Chair Yellen Testifies Before Senate Banking Panel
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P 72
18:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Monthly Budget Statement Jun C -16.2B | P -88.4B
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A steady rise through the Asian session with the market opening around the 1.1465 areas and pushing steely through to test towards the 1.1490 level with plenty of two way in the market, the move into the grey hour saw the market dropping back with profit taking moving in from the highs, by the time the market opened officially in London the market had pushed down through the opening levels and was trading quietly around the 1.1450 areas, the tight range through to the NYK session saw Yellen transcripts from the senate meeting sending the market initially through to the 1.1430 areas before bouncing as cautionary words saw the market pushing back to the 1.1480 levels before dropping again as Yellen spoke to the house committee, the USD rallied sharply pushing the Euro back through the 1.1400 if only briefly before settling in to trade around the 1.1410-20 levels through to the close.
- GBP: Trading quietly through into the Tokyo session and starting a limited rise through to the 1.2865 area before retreating back to the opening level for the run into the grey hour, strong early selling saw the market dip back to test the 1.2810 areas holding quietly, decent employment numbers and average earnings in line with expectations and the Cable was quickly back to the opening 1.2850 opening level, the market slowly rose from that point into the NYK session testing slightly through the 1.2905 level before gyrating a little into the Yellen comments however, it was less of an impact and the market settled into the 1.2890 area for the long run to the close. Bo£’s Broadbent again had things to say but overall it was lost in the clutter of the day.
- JPY: USDJPY slipped from the early highs just below the 114.00 level and traded through the Tokyo session in a tight channel through to the 113.30 areas before finding support, the move into the London session saw the market basing along the lows and pushing back through the 113.50 areas through into the NYK session a quick rise saw the market move above the 113.70 levels before dropping back on the cautionary note about weakening inflation by Yellen testing to the 113.00 level before ranging around the 113.25 areas through to the close.
- AUD: The movement in the Yen gave early Oz impetus to move off the 0.7635 opening areas and through to the 0.7665 areas before slipping back and holding around the 0.7650 areas through into the London session, Yellen speech saw limited movement initially before the cautionary note saw the Oz leap up to the 0.7685 areas meeting offers and turning the market lower, the market then settled into a quiet range through to the close rising a little and holding the 0.7680 areas.
Yesterday’s premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Domestic CGPI Y/Y Jun A 2.10% | C 2.10% | P 2.10%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Consumer Confidence Jul A 0.40% | P -1.80%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Tertiary Industry Index M/M May A -0.10% | C -0.60% | P 1.20%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Jobless Claims Change Jun A 6.0K | C 10.4K | P 7.3K
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Claimant Count Rate Jun A 2.30% | P 2.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â ILO Unemployment Rate 3M May A 4.50% | C 4.60% | P 4.60%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y May A 1.80% | C 1.80% | P 2.10%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Industrial Production M/M May A 1.30% | C 1.00% | P 0.50% | R 0.30%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoC Rate Decision A 0.75% | C 0.75% | P 0.50%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A -7.6M | C -3.2M | P -6.3M
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoC Press Conference
Good Luck,
Andy
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