Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 112.067 | EURUSD 1.15537 | AUDUSD 0.79165 | NZDUSD 0.73554 | USDCAD 1.26277 | USDCHF 0.95503 | GBPUSD 1.30405 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.15555 | 1.15331
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 112.139 | 111.885
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.30398 | 1.30242
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.95586 | 0.95465
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.79358 | 0.79094
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.26393 | 1.26239
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.73577 | 0.73405
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.10329 | 1.1024
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.88626 | 0.88493
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 129.541 | 129.203
For today
- EUR: A quiet session today with the market slipping back from the opening areas just above the 1.1550 level to test through the 1.1540 levels and holding there into the grey hour, light offers through the 1.1540-60 areas with stronger offers appearing into the 1.1600 areas, a push through the 1.1620 will likely see weak stops appearing with further stronger offers likely to appear around the 1.1650 areas. Downside bids light through the 1.1500 areas with weak stops likely to appear on a move through the 1.1480 areas into minor congestion limited bids then until the market moves into the 1.1420-00 areas with congestion just beyond the point however, stronger stops are likely to appear as a consequence of rejecting the topside.
- GBP: A similar pattern to the Euro with Cable slipping from the opening just above the 1.3040 level to test into the 1.3020 areas before holding to the grey hour around the 1.3030. Downside bids into the 1.3000 level are likely to be limited with weak stops on a push through the level however, congestion through to the 1.2950 areas is likely to slow the market, that is apart from some Brexit comments, with little data for the day any move below that level is likely to be absorbed with better bids appearing in any attempt towards the 1.2900 areas, Topside offers through the 1.3100 levels are likely to be stronger than they were now that inflation has been seen to be less than the market suspected, however, the market has to push through to the 1.3200 levels if this rally isn’t to stall and die and for the moment seems to be a tall order, a push through that level will likely open the market to the 1.3400 areas before significant offers appear.
- JPY: USDJPY initially moved to the 112.10 level before sliding lower on the move into the Tokyo session, the market tested through to the 111.90 areas before rising once the Tokyo fix was over to test through the 112.10 level but generally holding between there and the figure, Downside bids into the 112.00 areas with the market congestive through the level, as the market saw yesterday bids are likely into the 111.70 areas with weak stops possibly below the level however the market is likely to be congested through to the 111.00 areas before decent stops appear. Topside offers around the 112.50 levels are likely to be very weak however a move towards the 113.00 areas is likely to see stronger offers moving in with stops really not a major feature with congestion between the 113.30-90 levels likely to slow things a little.
- AUD: Drifting a little into the Tokyo session the market moved back off the 0.7910 level to again push through the 0.7930 area however, it was a quiet session with little to impact the Oz and the market held for the most part around the 0.7925 level. Topside offers through the 0.7940 areas are likely to see a mix of stops and offers through to the 0.7960 areas, stronger offers then move into the market in front of the 80 cent level with the congestion likely to continue through the level, some stops are likely however the market is likely to see profit taking and sellers willing to try their luck, Downside bids into the 79 cent level are likely to be weak and the market could be expecting any show of weakness as a need to sell into the move, with stops likely on a move below the 0.7840 areas the momentum could see the 78 cent level break quickly and a minor struggle from there.
Â
Overnight News                                                                 Â
AUD:
Post APRA release less than expected capital increases
Unquestionably strong capital benchmark
USD:
Trump, Putin had previously undisclosed visit at G20 dinner
Trump seeks crackdown on Made in America fakes
USD/CNY:
US officials will look for steps by China to open markets
IMF/EUR:
IMF raises 2017 growth forecast for Spain to 3.1%
EUR:
Greece’s bond issue is shelved for the moment
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Leading Index M/M Jun A -0.10% | P 0.00%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Shipments M/M May C 0.70% | P 1.10%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Jun C 1.16M | P 1.09M
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits Jun C 1.20M | P 1.17M
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories P -7.6M
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A quiet start to the session with the market opening around the 1.1480 level and slipping back towards the 1.1470 areas, the move into the Tokyo session saw the market quickly rising and pushing through the opening levels as most classes of trader moved in the 1.1500 level quickly broke as the RBA minutes were released and Euro’s pushed through to the 1.1520 areas, the failure of the US healthcare bill didn’t help the USD although the market struggled through to the 1.1535 areas it was unable to capitalize on the move and drifted into the London session, the run to the NYK session saw the Euro rising again once the UK data was out of the way, pushing into the NYK session above the 1.1550 level, the move through to the NYK option cut saw the market making its highs however, the market was unable to really clear the 1.1580 levels and the close in London saw the market fall back and drift to a close just above the 1.1550 area.
- GBP: Cable held its opening levels trading just above the 1.3050 level through until the USD drop and the RBA announcement, quickly moving through to the 1.3080 level and then slowly rising to challenge the 1.3100 level through into the grey hour, with limited success the market moved into the London session with expectations for inflation to be holding around the same levels as May however, that wasn’t the case and while the Cable jumped to above the 1.3120 areas into the number the fall back was even more soul destroying with the market not touching the sides until 1.3020, a weak bounce saw the market again drifting away from the 1.3050 level and testing to the 1.3010 area only to run along the level deep into the NYK session, with the market eventually rising as the London session ended the end of the day saw a light drift to the close.
- JPY: The USDJPY came under pressure on the move into the Tokyo session, having opened around the 112.65 areas the market drifted lower with both the USD under pressure from the failed health care plan in the US and the RBA announcement putting pressure on the AUDJPY cross the market eased into the later stages of the session moving off the low around the 112.00 areas, the move into the grey hour saw the market pushing a little higher and moving into the London session just short of the 112.40 levels before again slowly drifting in a tight channel back to the 112.00 areas and into the NYK session. Early selling saw the USDJPY pushing through to the 111.70 level with weak stops triggered on the initial move through the 112.00 level only to meet the support into the 111.85 areas and trade around for a period before London ended and the market moved back to base above the 112.00 level in a narrow range to the close.
- AUD: The Oz drifted lower from the opening noting special just slipping back below the 78 cent level as the market adjusted ready for the usual minutes from the RBA, as it was it was nothing of the sort, 3 consecutive better than expected employment numbers, broader growth and inflation saw a more hawkish comment than we’ve seen in a long time and the Oz reacted too it, pushing quickly through the 0.7840 resistance the market headed to the 0.7870 before slowing a little and trading through the 79 cent level as it moved into the grey hour, the movement continued through deep into London albeit more slowly grinding to the 0.7940 areas before finding sufficient offers and the drive running out of room, from the highs the market drifted through the rest of the session settling back to the 0.7920 levels into the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Q/Q Q2 A 0.00% | C 0.20% | P 1.00%
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Q2 A 1.70% | C 1.90% | P 2.20%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBA Minutes July
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Non Resident Bond Holdings Jun A 61.50% | P 61.40%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Jun A 0.00% | C 0.20% | P 0.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Jun A 2.60% | C 2.90% | P 2.90%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Core CPI Y/Y Jun A 2.40% | C 2.60% | P 2.60%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RPI M/M Jun A 0.20% | C 0.40% | P 0.40%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RPI Y/Y Jun A 3.50% | C 3.60% | 3.70%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Input M/M Jun A -0.40% | C -0.90% | P -1.30% | R -0.70%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Input Y/Y Jun A 9.90% | C 9.30% | P 11.60% | R 12.10%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output M/M Jun A 0.00% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Y/Y Jun A 3.30% | C 3.40% | P 3.60%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Core M/M Jun A 0.20% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Core Y/Y Jun A 2.90% | C 2.80% | P 2.80%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â House Price Index Y/Y May A 4.70% | C 3.00% | P 5.60% | R 5.30%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Jul A 17.5 | C 18 | P 18.6
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German ZEW (Current Situation) Jul A 86.4 | C 88 | P 88
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Jul A 35.6 | C 37.2 | P 37.7
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Import Price Index M/M Jun A -0.20% | C -0.20% | P -0.30% | R -0.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAHB Housing Market Index Jul A 64 | C 67 | P 67 | R 66
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net Long-term TIC Flows May A 91.9B | C 20.3B | P 1.8B | R 9.7B
Good Luck,
Andy
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.
LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.
Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.
If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.