Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 111.958 | EURUSD 1.15151 | AUDUSD 0.79529 | NZDUSD 0.7359 | USDCAD 1.26052 | USDCHF 0.95561 | GBPUSD 1.3023 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.15328 | 1.15052
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 112.179 | 111.771
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.30328 | 1.30157
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.95660 | 0.95473
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.79902 | 0.7926
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.26229 | 1.25905
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.73726 | 0.73395
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.10108 | 1.10006
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.88513 | 0.8836
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 129.164 | 128.792
For today
- EUR: Early trading saw the market rising into the Tokyo session to test above the 1.1530 levels however, once the buying was absorbed the market started a steady drift lower to range around the 1.1520 levels, the movement towards the grey hour saw the Euro under pressure with the USD showing signs of life in a quiet market, the market dipped below the 1.1510 levels before holding for the move into the grey hour, Topside offers light through the 1.1550 areas however, from then on the offers start to appear increasing in size into the 1.1580-1.1600 levels a push through the level is likely to see weak stops appearing before the market starts to see stronger offers from the 1.1640-60 level and then a very vulnerable 1.1700 area.
- GBP: moving off the opening around the 1.3020 areas the Cable pushed through the 1.3030 level and spent much of the day in the 1.3025-30 area before turning lower late into the session and dipping to the 1.3015 levels and moving into the grey hour holding around the 1.3020 levels. Topside sees light offers through the 1.3050 levels, limited potential for stops however, a push through to the 1.3100 areas is likely to not meet to much resistance however, pushing through to test the highs may cause a little bit of a problem with inflationary news tending to damper enthusiasm, saying that it still remains above the BoE’s target rate and so therefore could still present a problem for the MPC at their next meeting, a break of the 1.3120 levels could see the rise continuing with the market likely to find sentimental offers into the 1.3150 areas and then 1.3200 likely to be a stronger level. Downside bids into the 1.3000 areas seem to be a reluctant last attempt to limit the potential for a rejection of the topside, weak stops likely on a move through the level with some congestion on a move into the 1.2950 areas however, better strength is likely to appear around the 1.2900 areas for the moment however, even here stronger is possibly a misnomer and relative, better congestion through that level and into the 1.2850 areas.
- JPY: A quiet move through into the Tokyo session having opened just below the figure the market drifted to hold around the 111.80 levels late into the session and the release of the trade numbers and BoJ monetary policy, with the BoJ delaying the time to reach the 2% inflation target and everything else remaining intact, the market moved up to the 112.00 levels again and eventually pushed through to trouble the 112.20 levels before settling back to hold around the 112.10 areas into the grey hour. Topside offers light into the 112.20 area with possibly weak stops on a move through and the market targeting the congestive areas around the 112.60 areas, weak offers around the 113.00 areas will likely see the 113.50 area being a stronger level for the time being. Downside bids into the 111.50-60 areas with very little in the way of stops until the market can break through the 111.00 areas with limited congestion on a move through to the 110.50 levels.
- AUD: Oz opened a little weaker and immediately started a steady rise from the 0.7950 levels and pushed into the Tokyo session testing towards the 0.7970 areas, another rise in employment was tempered by a revision of the previous month with the knee jerk reaction spiking to the 0.7990 level before dropping quickly back to below the 0.7950 areas, buyers were caught hoping for a break of the 80 cent levels however, for the moment that is a step to far with possible option barriers and profit taking on a strong sentimental/technical level, this therefore carried the market through to the 0.7925 areas where the Asian market held just 24hrs ago. Topside offers into the 80 cent level and possibly a little through before the stops appear with only light congestion on a move through the level to the 0.8100 level and the 82 cent areas vulnerable in the long term, downside bids likely to be light with the 0.7900 areas still forming however a push through the level could see some strong stops appearing and the market then open to a return to a stronger 0.7850 area with bids likely to extend down to the 0.7840 level before anymore stops and a test of 78 cent.
Â
Overnight News                                                                 Â
JPY:
BoJ maintains 10y JGB yield target at about the 0.000%
BoJ maintains policy balance rate at -0.100%
BoJ delays timing for reaching 2% inflation target to FY2019
BoJ raises assessment of economy
Japan’s June export growth points to sustained economic recovery
AUD:
Economy back on track as full time work improves
USD/CNY:
US, China fail to agree on trade issues, casting doubt on other issues between the two
USD:
Trump tells Republicans to get the health care done, and not to plan any holidays
Nafta changes could cost US auto industry jobs, raise car prices – study
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â BOJ Monetary Policy Statement
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (JPY) Jun A 0.08T | C 0.12T | P 0.13T | R 0.12T
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAB Business Confidence Q2 A 7 | P 6
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Change Jun A 14.0K | C 15.0K | P 42.0K | R 38.0K
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Jun A 5.60% | C 5.60% | P 5.50% | 5.60%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â All Industry Activity Index M/M May A -0.90% | C -0.80% | P 2.10% | R 2.30%
06:00Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (CHF) Jun C 2.89B | P 3.40B
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German PPI M/M Jun C -0.10% | P -0.20%
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German PPI Y/Y Jun C 2.30% | P 2.80%
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Current Account (EUR) May C 23.3B | P 22.2B
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Jun C 0.30% | P -1.20%
11:45Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Rate Decision C 0.00% | P 0.00%
12:30Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Press Conference
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (JUL 15) C 245K | P 247K
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Philly Fed Manufacturing Jul C 23.7 | P 27.6
14:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Consumer Confidence Jul (A) C -1.1 | P -1.3
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Leading Indicators Jun C 0.40% | P 0.30%
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P 57B
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A very quiet day with very limited data for the Euro, the market opened round the 1.1555 level and the euphoria would seem to be over with the Euro slowly sliding lower through the session, trading in a tight channel through to the London session testing the 1.1530 level and looking vulnerable, however, the move into the London session saw the market making a low of 1.1515 and holding then in a tight range through into the NYK session, with Trump willing to argue the Obamacare case and form a bipartisan committee he has put the worst of the affair behind for the moment, Euro’s dipped to its lows around the 1.1510 level and then struggled through to the close holding around the 1.1515 levels.
- GBP: The market traded quietly and in a tight range through to the end of the day, opening around the 1.3040 areas the market slowly drifted in to the Tokyo session before starting a recovery back to the opening levels, the topside found some limited offers into the 1.3050 level and that remained the limit to that side throughout the day with several attempts turned back, the downside was little different and having failed the topside twice the market turned its attention dropping back quickly from the highs to test the 1.3010 level, with May commenting that the stance has not changed to that before the general election, so while the market was choppy it remained in the 1.3050-10 level through the day and settled into the last couple of hours around the 1.3020 area.
- JPY: USDJPY ranged quietly through the Asian session around the 112.00 areas, with early sellers pushing the market through to the 111.90 levels only to quickly rise back to the 112.10 area, the market moved into the grey hour quickly testing through the 112.20 level to make the highs for the day before again resuming the range around the 112.00 level, the move into the NYK session saw some strong selling appear on a push through to the 111.55 with weak stops triggered along the way before running out of steam and slowly rising through the balance of the day to the close just below the 112.00 level.
- AUD: The Oz steadily ground higher through the day with the market struggling to follow up on the strong gains over this week, opening around the 0.7915 levels the market initially slipped a little into the Tokyo session to test the 0.7910 level and make the lows before rising through to the 0.7935 level and holding in a tight 0.7925-35 level through to the grey hour, early London were quick to buy in an attempt towards the 0.7950 areas however it was quickly turned and the market dropped back to the opening levels into the London session, the rise started again and into early NYK the market managed to test through the 0.7950 levels if somewhat briefly before rising steadily again to push through into the later part of the day and hold through to the close around the 0.7955 and just short of the highs.
Yesterday’s premiership results
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Leading Index M/M Jun A -0.10% | P 0.00%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Shipments M/M May A 1.10% | C 0.70% | P 1.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Jun A 1.22M | C 1.16M | P 1.09M | R 1.12M
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits Jun A 1.25M | C 1.20M | P 1.17M
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A -4.7M | C -3.6M | P -7.6M
Good Luck,
Andy
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