Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 111.909 | EURUSD 116.311 | AUDUSD 0.79578 | NZDUSD 0.74146 | USDCAD 1.25908 | USDCHF 0.95125 | GBPUSD 1.29731 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.16366 | 1.16192
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 112.081 | 111.804
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.29722 | 1.29537
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.95228 | 0.95055
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.79582 | 0.78753
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.26049 | 1.25857
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.74285 | 0.73944
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.10665 | 1.10612
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.89757 | 0.89652
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 130.326 | 130.019
For today
- EUR: A very quiet range for the Euro with the market holding around the 1.1630 opening levels all through the session and the Asian market quiet into the weekend. Topside offers into the 1.1665 level with an old trend line providing resistance, a push through the level will see sentimental levels come into play around the 1.1680-1.1700 areas and possibly light option plays however, these could be removed by any stops in the area once that trend line is removed, very little beyond that with sentimental levels likely to play out and the market looking at the long decline from 2014-15. Downside bids light through the 1.1600 levels and the possibility of weak stops appearing to open up the downside through to the 1.1560-40 areas where the market did initially pause on the way up, a move through that level leaves 1.1500 vulnerable and the whole move up for that matter, with possibly strong stops on a move through the 1.1480 areas.
- GBP: Cable drifted a little from the opening testing through into the Tokyo session just shy of the 1.2950 levels before rising back towards the opening levels, Topside offer light through the 1.3000 levels with stronger offers starting around the 1.3050 areas, a push through the level may see some light stops however, the market is likely to see some congestion on any move towards the 1.3100 areas with stronger offers in that area and through to the 1.3150 level, weak stops through the level joined possibly by tech buyers could see the market quickly challenging the 1.3200 areas and possible option barriers. Downside bids light through the 1.2950 areas with congestive bids likely to continue through the 1.2900 areas and stronger bids again, a push through the level sees lighter congestion on a move towards the 1.2850 areas and possibly the market giving up on the long trade and the downside becoming very vulnerable.
- JPY: Quiet session for the USDJPY as it ranged around the 112.00 area after an early test to the 111.80 levels, the market was never really able to challenge the topside and seemed to be dead in the water through the session, Topside offers light through to the 112.40 areas with some light congestive offers through the area and stronger offers into the 113.00 areas, a push through could see some light stops on a run to the 113.30 areas however, the congestion is likely to continue unless the market can again challenge above the 114.00 areas. Downside bids into the 111.50 level look congestive on a move through that level however the 111.00 for the moment seems to be a stronger level with weak stops through the area.
- AUD: The Oz drifted through the early part of the session with the curve steepening as the longs in the market decided to lighten into the weekend, as it was Comments by deputy RBA governor Debelle was enough to send the market quickly down through the 79 cent levels and base along the 0.7880 area through into the grey hour, Topside offers strong through to the 80 cent level with possibly option related, a push through with stops likely to appear as the market opens to the 82 cent areas as the next target, downside bids light through to the 78 cent areas with the strongest of those bids likely to be in the 0.7860-40 areas with some weak stops through before finding stronger bids starting to build in the 0.7800-0.7775 areas.
Â
Overnight News                                                                 Â
AUD:
RBA Deputy Gov. Debelle says discussion of neutral rates had no implications for policy
Debelle: Useful to have sense of where neutral rate lies
Debelle: notes RBA forecasts based on unchanged cash rate
Debelle: inflation targeting continues to do useful job
Debelle: Appreciating exchange rate isn’t helpful for economy
Debelle: Stronger currency complicates economy’s adjustment
Debelle: not seen universal house price impact from low rates
Debelle: RBA bit more confident on economic forecasts
NZD:
RBNZ new Governor could be named soon after election
JPY:
Japan to keep primary surplus target despite shortfall outlook Aso
USD:
Trumps lawyers seek undercut Mueller’s Russia investigation
IMF:
IMF gives in principle backing to $1.8B loan for Greece
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Jun C 4.3B | P 6.0B
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Jun C 0.00% | P 0.10%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Jun C 1.10% | P 1.30%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Jun P 130.5
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core – Common Y/Y Jun P 1.30%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core – Trim Y/Y Jun P 1.20%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core – Median Y/Y Jun P 1.50%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M May C 0.40% | P 0.80%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Less Autos M/M May C 0.40% | P 1.50%
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A quiet drift through the Asian session with the market opening around the 1.1520 and making its way only to the 1.1530’s before starting a slow drift through the session into the grey hour, pushing back through the opening levels the market struggled through into the NYK session before really awakening, that move saw the market dip to its lowest point pressing the 1.1480 levels and the suspected stops before the ECB release, with no change to either the rates or QE the market quickly moved higher with expectations of tapering not even on the cards until Oct they say, now this is not wrote in stone and I do remember the Bundesbank leaving a meeting saying no comment and stopping down the autobahn some 20 mins later to announce a hike however, the politics of that were possibly different, Euro’s quickly hit the 1.1560 levels before pausing the market eventually cleared the level fully and quickly spiked towards the 1.1660 areas with weak stops through the level however, that was towards the high and the market settled back to eventually trade around the 1.1630 levels with a strong move on the day and the cheap money still flowing.
- GBP: Cable drifted through the Asian session holding around the 1.3020-30 levels for the most part before moving into the London session properly and dropping back to the chop around the 1.3000 levels as the retail sales numbers showed improvement however, with all the media reporting on a terse 2nd round of discussions the early sellers were not finished and the market continued to decline after a brief pause testing through the 1.2950 level and into the mid 1.2930’s before the Euro started to run away, Cable was dragged along if only in a limited fashion with the EURGBP rising towards the 0.0.8980 levels before running into stronger offers, possibly option barriers to the 0.9000 levels and the highs from the Oct slump, Cable was unable to regain the 1.3000 level although the move towards the London close saw a steady rise in that direction the market however, collapsed into the close to the 1.2960 levels before basing around the 1.2970 area through to the close of the day.
- JPY: The USDJPY started the day ranging quietly until the BoJ monetary policy with little change in the basics the fact that the inflation target date was again moved back this time deeper into 2019 helped the USDJPY rise from the openings around the 111.85 areas to push steadily through into the London session pressing the 112.40 area as the market moved towards the NYK session, the movement in the Euro saw the EURJPY to rise into offers and the Euro was in no mood to give ground and so the JPY strengthened as profit taking held the cross around the 130.00 levels, USDJPY tested through the opening levels triggering some weak stops on a move to the 111.50 level before the strong move finished and the pair then saw a steady recovery to test the 112.00 levels before slipping only slightly to finish almost unchanged.
- AUD: The Oz rose a little into the employment numbers with better than expected full time numbers however, the push towards the 80 cent level saw strong selling moving into the market and the spike was quickly turned and the longs quickly scrambling to get out, the market tested back from the 0.7990 level to the 0.7940 before slowing its decent however, it did continue drifting lower through into the midsession in London testing the 79 cent level before seeing a reversal and a steady climb back through into the NYK session to push through to the opening levels and then hold more or less unchanged on the day.
Yesterday’s premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â BOJ Monetary Policy Statement
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (JPY) Jun A 0.08T | C 0.12T | P 0.13T | R 0.12T
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAB Business Confidence Q2 A 7 | P 6
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Change Jun A 14.0K | C 15.0K | P 42.0K | R 38.0K
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Jun A 5.60% | C 5.60% | P 5.50% | 5.60%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â All Industry Activity Index M/M May A -0.90% | C -0.80% | P 2.10% | R 2.30%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (CHF) Jun A 2.81B | C 2.89B | P 3.40B
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German PPI M/M Jun A 0.00% | C -0.10% | P -0.20%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German PPI Y/Y Jun A 2.40% | C 2.30% | P 2.80%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Current Account (EUR) May A 30.1B | C 23.3B | P 22.2B | R 23.5B
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Jun A 0.60% | C 0.30% | P -1.20%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Rate Decision A 0.00% | C 0.00% | P 0.00%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Press Conference
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (JUL 15) A 233K | C 245K | P 247K | R 248K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Philly Fed Manufacturing Jul A 19.5 | C 23.7 | P 27.6
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Consumer Confidence Jul (A) A -2 | C -1.1 | P -1.3
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Leading Indicators Jun A 0.60% | C 0.40% | P 0.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A 28B | C 39B | P 57B
Good Luck,
Andy
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