Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 110.192 | EURUSD 1.17669 | AUDUSD 0.79255 | NZDUSD 0.73039 | USDCAD 1.26192 | USDCHF 0.96579 | GBPUSD 1.28917 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.17900 | 1.17649
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 110.160 | 109.672
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.29092 | 1.28844
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.96595 | 0.96386
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.79504 | 0.79197
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.26332 | 1.26005
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.73354 | 0.73029
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.13706 | 1.13556
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.91369 | 0.91252
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 129.703 | 129.138
For today
- EUR: Volume wise a stronger day however, plenty of two trading into the highs with the market moving quietly off the opening level to the 1.1780 area and then slipping back as the Tokyo session moved into the market, Oz employment numbers saw the Euro pushed to the 1.1790 level and again further resistance and the market then holding around the 1.1780 areas again, Topside offers into the 1.1800 area congestion with possible weak stops through the level and increasing in size as the market moves towards the 1.1840-60 level, a push through could see some light stops however, the offers again appear in size into the 1.1880-1.1900 areas with likely strong stops on a push through the 1.1920 level. Downside bids light into the 1.1750 areas with congestive bids limited before stronger bids move in around the 1.1700 areas, with possibly strong stops on a break below the 1.1680 areas with limited bids through the 1.1660 areas.
- GBP: A slow move higher through the Asian session with early lows in Tokyo around the 1.2885 areas seeing steady buying moving in once the Oz numbers were out of the way for a push above the 1.2905 areas and ranging around that level through to the grey hour, Topside offers light through to the 1.2950 level with congestive offers then appearing on the move through to test the 1.3000 areas, possibly weak stops on a move through that area but light with congestion likely to continue until the 1.3050 areas where stronger offers are likely to appear and limited stops on a push through. Downside bids light back through the 1.2900 levels with stronger bids into the 1.2850 areas for the moment and possible stops appearing for a deeper move through the limited 1.2800 areas.
- JPY: The change of fortunes for the USD has seen the USDJPY slipping slowly through the 110.00 areas from the opening around the 110.20 areas, with a stronger trade balance showing for July the JPY saw buyers and the USDJPY slipped back through the 110.00 areas triggering some light stops on a move through to the 109.70 levels before finding some support. Downside bids congestive through the 109.50 level with stronger bids not likely to be seen until the market again tests the 109.00 areas with possible weak stops on a move through the 108.80 areas the market again finds some support appearing as it pushes through the 108.50 areas and into the 108.20 level, limited potential for the moment for a larger move but a quick test of the 107.50 level could open up lower ranges seen around this time last year.
- AUD: The Oz held its gains from yesterday and tested the 0.7950 areas however, even with employment numbers better than expected the market was unable to mount a serious challenge to the level and holds for the moment close to its highs having ranged in the 0.7930-50 areas from the opening. Topside offers into the 80 cent level are likely to be strong again with weak stops only on a push through the 0.7920 areas and then not likely to be that large with stronger offers likely to appear to absorb that buying, a push through the 0.8060 areas is likely to see some stops appearing and the market then open to the 81 cent level. Downside bids light back through the 79 cent level with a few weak stops likely on a push down through the 0.7880 areas to open up a chance of testing back to the 78 cent areas.
Â
Overnight News                                                                 Â
AUD:
July rate in line with expectations with a 0.1% revision of the Jun number
Part-time employment rose 48.2K
Full time employment rose 20.3K
Participation rate was 65.1% in July slightly ahead of 65% expectations
CNY:
Chinese General says military measure must not become an option on the Korean peninsula
SGD:
Moody’s projects Singapore real GDP for full year at 2.5%
USD:
US in economic war with China, says Trump strategist Bannon
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Inputs Q/Q Q2 A 1.40% | C 0.90% | P 0.80%
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Outputs Q/Q Q2 A 1.30% | C 0.70% | P 1.40%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (JPY) Jul A 0.34T | C 0.20T | P 0.08T | R 0.09T
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Merchandise Trade Exports Y/Y Jul A 13.40% | C 13.40% | P 9.70%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Change Jul A 27.9K | C 20.0K | P 14.0K
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Jul A 5.60% | C 5.60% | P 5.60% | R 5.70%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Jul C 0.60% | P 0.60%
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Jun C 20.3B | P 19.7B
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI M/M Jul C -0.50% | P 0.00%
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Y/Y Jul (F) C 1.30% | P 1.30%
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI – Core Y/Y Jul (F) C 1.20% | P 1.20%
11:30Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Shipments M/M Jun C -1.00% | P 1.10%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (AUG 12) C 240K | P 244K
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Aug C 18.8 | P 19.5
13:15Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Jul C 0.30% | P 0.40%
13:15Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Capacity Utilization Jul C 76.70% | P 76.60%
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Leading Indicators Jul C 0.30% | P 0.60%
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P 28B
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A quiet session saw the Euro holding around the 1.1740 levels through to the London session when the market dipped initially as GDP figures started to be release, Eurozone GDP came in as expected and the market rose to push towards the 1.1760 level before dropping off again to quickly test through the 1.1700 areas before broadly holding the level through to the FOMC release with the market trading in a 1.1680-1.1720 range, A split in the Fed on when easing may be curtailed saw the USD drop back from the release and the Euro quickly rose through to the 1.1780 levels before holding quietly into the close.
- GBP: As with the Euro Cable traded quietly through the Asian session before slipping back in the grey hours to test the 1.2850 areas, early numbers saw the Cable climbing off the level and pushing through the opening around 1.2870 but unable to do much, better employment numbers saw the Cable jump from the lows of the day just below the 1.2850 areas and briefly testing the 1.2905 area before drifting through to the FOMC release test back to the lows along the way, the market recovered as the market rallied on the FOMC minutes and held through to the close around the 1.2890 areas.
- JPY: A slow Asian session saw the market trade around the 110.60-70 levels for the most part with a minor attempt to the 110.80 area before drifting through into the London session, early buyers in London testing to the 110.90 areas to make the highs for the day, drifting then through to the FOMC ranging in the 110.70-90 level before dropping back through to worry the 110.00 level on the release of the FOMC minutes before closing quietly around the 110.20.
- AUD: A slow steady climb through the day with wage costs in line with expectations and a resilient Oz trading from the 0.7820 areas and into the London session pushing the 0.7840 levels, the eventual push through the level saw the market moving into the early London morning testing above the 0.7860 area and then holding quietly through to the NYK session, further buying saw the market testing through to the 0.7890 level before slowly starting to rise again before the move into the FOMC release and a push through to the 0.7930 level to finish on its highs.
Yesterday’s premiership results
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Leading Index M/M Jul A 0.10% | P -0.10% | R -0.20%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wage Cost Index Q/Q Q2 A 0.50% | C 0.50% | P 0.50% | R 0.60%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Italian GDP Q/Q Q2 (P) A 0.40% | C 0.40% | P 0.40%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Jobless Claims Change Jul A -4.2K | C 3.7K | P 6.0K | R 3.5K
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Claimant Count Rate Jul A 2.30% | P 2.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y Jun A 2.10% | C 1.80% | P 1.80% | R 1.90%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â ILO Unemployment Rate 3M Jun A 4.40% | C 4.50% | P 4.50%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q2 (P) A 0.60% | C 0.60% | P 0.60%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â International Securities Transactions (CAD) Jun A -0.92B | C 23.45B | P 29.46B | R 29.44B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Jul A 1.16M | C 1.22M | P 1.22MÂ | R 1.21M
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits Jul A 1.22M | C 1.25M | P 1.25M | R 1.28M
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A -8.9M | C -3.0M | P -6.5M
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â FOMC Meeting Minutes Jul
Good Luck,
Andy
P.S. I will be away until the 13th August tempting trout in Eire, or not as the case maybe, or just some Guinness will do
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