Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 108.98 | EURUSD 1.1815 | AUDUSD 0.79399 | NZDUSD 0.7323 | USDCAD 1.25577 | USDCHF 0.96194 | GBPUSD 1.28986 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.18245 | 1.18028
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 109.337 | 108.893
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.29090 | 1.28806
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.96381 | 0.96189
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.79510 | 0.79324
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.25647 | 1.25496
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.73356 | 0.73181
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.13773 | 1.13653
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.91653 | 0.91549
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 129.183 | 128.649
For today
- EUR: Euros made early gains into the Tokyo session pushing through to the 1.1825 areas before starting a slow drift down through the 1.1800 figure area into the grey hours, very limited with tensions increasing in Asia again, Topside offers through the 1.1840 levels with a break above the 1.1860 level likely to see weak stops appearing as the market again pushes to the 1.1880 areas with good offers through to the 1.1900 areas, stops on a strong push through the 1.1910-20 areas opens the market to further gains with the market targeting the 1.2000 areas last seen in 2015. Downside bids likely to be light on a test back to the 1.1780 areas with congestion then appearing around the 1.1750 level and stronger bids into the 1.1700 levels with stops not expected to be large until the 1.1660 area is reached.
- GBP: Opening around the 1.2900 areas the market struggled through into the Tokyo session eventually seeing some buying move in on a quiet session to set the high just short of the 1.2910 areas before slowly slipping through to the grey hours to test to the 1.2875 areas before finding limited support, downside bids likely to be light through to the 1.2850 areas with some congestion into the area however, weak stops through the level are likely to target the 1.2800 areas quickly with some bids in the area and congestion waiting below, weak stops possibly in the mix could see further declines. Topside offers through the 1.2910-20 areas with weak stops above the level could quickly see the 1.2950 areas however, plenty of congestion from there into the 1.3000 level with some limited stops likely with offers then building towards the 1.3050 areas.
- JPY: USDJPY slowly climbed from the 108.90 lows and the move into the Tokyo session saw the market rise quickly through to the 109.20 areas before grinding through to the 109.35 area to set the high and a quiet run to the grey hour holding just short of the highs. Topside offers light through the day’s high with possibly some weak stops however, stronger offers into the 109.50 areas will likely slow any movement with limited stops on a push through 109.60 and stronger congestion as the market approaches the 110.00 areas, from there the market opens a little with 110.80 the next line in the sand. Downside bids a little light through to the 108.60 areas where the past few days have seen the market basing however, a push through the level and possibly a few weak stops will likely run to the April lows before meeting stronger support of course that depends on the rhetoric and or actions of the US and Korea’s
- AUD: The market drifted after the confidence number however, the move into the Tokyo session saw good buying in the AUDJPY cross with the Oz testing once again just above the 0.7950 areas before running out of steam in the face of strong offers and dropping back quickly as the market was unable to break confidently through the level, dipping back to the opening levels the market based along the 0.7935 areas through into the grey hour. Topside offers into the 0.7950-60 areas are likely to see weak stops on a move through the level however, the 80 cent level is likely to be strongly defended again with those offers increasing through to the 0.8050 area. Downside bids into the 0.79 cent level mostly congestive with the market likely to continue in that fashion through to 0.7850-40 before stops appear in the market and the market quickly showing signs of weakness through a limited 78 cent area, a push through the 0.7775 area is likely to see stronger stops appearing and the market having the potential to drop a lot further.
Â
Overnight News                                                                 Â
USD:
Fed’s Yellen set to tell markets she is serious on rates to make sure markets do not panic
US military commanders to issue warning to N. Korea Yonhap
Trump to increase troops in Afghanistan as part of retooled strategy
USD/KRW:
Eyeing more offensive option on Pyongyang Nikkei
USD/CNY:
US is said to ready moves on Chinese Cos aiding N. Korea WSJ
KRW:
- Korea says S. Korea-US drill heighten tensions KCNA
US military officials in S. Korea is mock war situation KCNA
- Korea says US to face revenge for ignoring N. Korea warning
- Korea says US will be responsible for joint drill aftermath
- Korea-US drill aimed at pre-emptive strike on N. Korea
UN:
Report reveals N. Korea dealings with Syria chemical arms body
AUD:
ANZ consumer confidence index falls to 109.2 vs. 111.7
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
06:00Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (CHF) Jul C 2.88B | P 2.81B
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Jul C 0.3B | P 6.3B
09:00    EUR       German ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Aug  C 15 | P 17.5
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German ZEW (Current Situation) Aug C 85.5 | P 86.4
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Aug C 34.2 | P 35.6
10:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CBI Trends Total Orders Aug C 10 | P 10
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Jun C 0.30% | P 0.60%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Less Autos M/M Jun C 0.30% | P -0.10%
13:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â House Price Index M/M Jun C 0.50% | P 0.40%
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: The usual quiet Asian session with the market opening around the 1.1760 levels and drifting down to base along the 1.1750 areas through into the grey hour and light selling to push the market slowly into the 1.1730 areas, the move towards the opening in NYK saw the market regaining the 1.1750 level, pushing steadily through to test to the 1.1770 areas, NYK saw tensions rising in the Asian area and the Euro moved up in stages taking out the minimal offers on its way to the 1.1800 areas and eventually pushing through the 1.1820 areas, the market was unable to push beyond the 1.1830 level and slowly drifted into the close.
- GBP: Cable moved off a low opening around the 1.2865 area filling the gap on the charts into the Tokyo session to test just above the 1.2880 level before ranging through to the grey hour holding the 1.2865-80 areas, early sellers took the market to its lows possibly in relation to the poor housing number at the start of the day before recovering from the 1.2850 areas on a slow move back to the opening areas, the move into early NYK saw the market pushing through the highs and a choppy move to above the 1.2900 levels to test just above the 1.2915 level before drifting to the close holding around the figure levels on light trading.
- JPY: USDJPY saw a steady drift through the day as tensions in Korea again set the tone for the day, opening slightly higher than Fridays close the market pushed to the 109.40 areas to set the high for the day before slipping back to trade around the 109.20 level through to the grey hour, London were steady sellers taking the market through the 109 levels and then holding around that level into the NYK opening where the pattern was repeated and the market drifted through to set the lows in the 108.60 areas before finding sufficient bids to hold the market, the move to the close saw the market moving off those lows to push to the figure area for the close.
- AUD: Concerns about housing bubble again entered the market with the Oz unable to push much beyond the opening 0.7930 areas and slowly drifting into the grey hour to the 0.7920 level in some light volumes, early London wold the market back to the 0.7910 areas and holding the level for several hours before the early sellers started to cover and the market run steadily through to the opening in NYK testing the 0.7930 areas again, NYK pushed it through the level and the market saw the 0.7950 areas before meeting anything significant and spent its time pushing at the level before the London close saw the market back to the opening levels again and holding through to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Rightmove House Prices M/M Aug A -0.90% | P 0.10%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â All Industry Activity Index M/M Jun A 0.40% | C 0.40% | P -0.90% | R -0.80%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Sales M/M Jun A -0.50% | C -0.20% | P 0.90% | R 1.00%
Good Luck,
Andy
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