Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 109.564 | EURUSD 1.17619 | AUDUSD 0.79113 | NZDUSD 0.72794 | USDCAD 1.2562 | USDCHF 0.96822 | GBPUSD 1.28232 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.17665 | 1.17478
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 109.830 | 109.367
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.28270 | 1.28063
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.96989 | 0.96795
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.79156 | 0.7883
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.25966 | 1.25618
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72823 | 0.72312
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.13966 | 1.13853
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.91773 | 0.91684
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 129.116 | 128.651
For today
- EUR: A very quiet session with the market opening around the 1.1760 areas and ranging between the 1.1765-50 areas for the most part, Topside offers light through to the 1.1800 levels with offers likely to increase on a move through the level and into the 1.1840 areas, congestion is likely to continue with speculators likely to try to pick the tops with weak stops likely on a push through the 1.1900 areas, downside bids into the 1.1700 areas with some congestion likely through to the 1.1660 areas with a mix of stops likely through the 1.1680 area, a push through the 1.1640 level will likely see stronger stops leaving the downside vulnerable to a deeper move.
- GBP: As with the rest of the market very quiet and whether that is to do with the current weather situation in some parts of the Asia remains to be seen, opening around the 1.2825 areas the market traded down to the 1.2810 areas and holding in that range through the day so far drifting towards the lows into the grey hour, Topside offers very weak through to the 1.2900 areas where offers start to thicken going through to the 1.2920 areas before possibly seeing weak stops appearing with some congestive offers around the 1.2950 areas and continuing into the 1.3000 area and stronger offers. Downside bids into the 1.2800 areas are likely to be reasonable with weak stops on a move through the level sees some bids into the 1.2765 areas with an old technical line seeing some bids with strong stops through the level.
- JPY: Early buying from the opening saw the market push above the 109.70 areas and running into Tokyo holding the level some limited demand for the Tokyo fix saw the market trade its high just above the 109.80 level before drifting back and holding just above the opening levels until late in the session, Trump comments saw a fall back to the 109.40 level rather quickly before bouncing a little for a move into the grey hours around the 109.50 areas. Topside offers into the 109.80 areas through to the 110.00 level with congestion through the level and possible weak stops on a move through the 110.20 area, further congestion through the 110.50 areas are likely to be weak but present and stronger offers appearing on a move towards the 110.80-111.00 areas and slightly through before stops appear. Downside bids light through the 109.00 levels and then increasing as the market moves into the 108.60-40 areas with weak stops likely through the level and strong bids into the 108.00 areas and the potential for a larger move lower.
- AUD: A weaker NZD dragged on the Oz with the market opening around the 0.7910 area and testing above the 0.7915 area the market dropped quickly on Kiwi surplus and growth outlook with the Oz pushing through the 0.7885 areas and then holding the level for a couple of hours before a weak attempt to push back through the 79 cent level, the market failed and drifted through to the grey hours just below that area, Topside offers light through to the 0.7950 areas and likely to be reasonably strong in the area, a push through the level will likely see weak stops appearing and the market open to the 80 cent level and further offers from then on. Downside bids congestive in nature until the 0.7860-40 areas with some reasonable bids likely in the area, some weak stops again possible with possibly very little on the bid side until below 78 cent.
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Overnight News                                                                 Â
USD:
Trump and McConnell locked in Cold War battle that threatens the GOP agenda
Trump’s team and lawmakers making strides on tax reform plan
Trump: I’m building the wall if we have to close down our government CNBC
Trump: on NAFTA, personally I don’t think we can make a deal
Trump thinks US will probably end up terminating NAFTA at some point
Trump threatens government shutdown over border wall funds
USD/KRW:
US expands N. Korea sanctions, seeks to seize millions
EUR:
Europe under threat from terrorists posing as migrants Times
GBP:
Bosses bring investment to halt as confidence in economy tumbles Times
NZD:
NZ trims surplus, growth outlook ahead of election
Targeting a reduction in net government debt to 10-15% of GDP by 2025 (22.5% in 2017)
Raises 2016/17 surplus of NZ$3.71B (prior NZ$1.62B) Raises 2017/18 surplus of NZ$2.87B (prior NZ$2.86B)
Raises 2018/19 surplus of NZ$3.52B (prior NZ$4.05B)
Raises 2020/21 surplus of NZ$6.44B (prior NZ$7.17B)
Cuts 2017/18 GDP growth of 3.5% (prior 3.7%)
Affirms 2018/19 GDP growth of 3.5%Cuts 2019/20 GDP growth of 2.5% (prior 2.6%)
KRW:
Kim orders more production of ICBMs State media
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing Aug (P) A 52.8 | C 52.3 | P 52.1
07:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Manufacturing PMI Aug (P) C 54.5 | P 54.9
07:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Services PMI Aug (P) C 55.8 | P 56
07:30Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Manufacturing PMI Aug (P) C 57.7 | P 58.1
07:30Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Services PMI Aug (P) C 53.3 | P 53.1
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Aug (P) C 56.3 | P 56.6
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services PMI Aug (P) C 55.4 | P 55.4
13:45Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â US Manufacturing PMI Aug (P) C 53.4 | P 53.3
13:45Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â US Services PMI Aug (P) C 54.9 | P 54.7
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Home Sales Jul C 610K | P 610K
14:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Consumer Confidence Aug (A) C -2 | P -2
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories P -8.9M
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A limited push higher into early Tokyo saw the market testing to just above the 1.1820 levels before slipping slowly back through the session to test the 1.1800 into the grey hour, the move into London saw the market continuing to slip lower slipping into mid-morning testing the 1.1750 areas before finding some support and ranging through to the close between the 1.1750-70 levels. A resurfacing article, two parties in Italy are now talking about a secondary currency, which would run in tandem with the Euro.
- GBP: Cable tracked the early movement of the Euro with Cable testing towards the 1.2910 levels in a weak test before drifting through to the 1.2880 level into the grey hour, PSBR number was unable to slow the descent and the market slipped slowly lower testing to the 1.2810 areas just before the NYK session, while the range was a little larger than the Euro the result was the same with a quiet run through NYK to the close trading around the 1.2820 areas.
- JPY: A slow steady climb through the day, with the market opening around the 109.00 areas and the lows for the day trading to the 109.35 areas before holding steady into the London session, the market traded sideways deep into the NYK session around the 109.30 level before starting the rise again to test to the 109.60 areas into the close.
- AUD: Early trading into the Tokyo session saw the market testing to the 0.7950 areas before running out of steam and dropping back to the opening level around the 0.7935 area, the move through into the London session was tedious at its best and only once the London market moved in dropping the market from the 0.7945 level after early buyers attempted to test the highs, those weak longs quickly covered adding to the sellers and the market tested to the 0.7915 areas before holding for a short period, a further test took the market to its lows just beyond the 79 cent level before a weak recovery into the NYK session, the recovery was limited to the 0.7925 areas and then drifted back towards the lows again only to finish just off the lows into the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (CHF) Jul A 3.51B | C 2.88B | P 2.81B | R 2.76B
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Jul A -0.8B | C 0.3B | P 6.3B | R 5.7B
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Aug A 10 | C 15 | P 17.5
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German ZEW (Current Situation) Aug A 86.7 | C 85.5 | P 86.4
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Aug A 29.3 | C 34.2 | P 35.6
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CBI Trends Total Orders Aug A 13 | C 10 | P 10
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Jun A 0.10% | C 0.30% | P 0.60% | R 0.50%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Less Autos M/M Jun A 0.70% | C 0.30% | P -0.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â House Price Index M/M Jun A 0.10% | C 0.50% | P 0.40%
Good Luck,
Andy
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