Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 109.038 | EURUSD 1.18066 | AUDUSD 0.79036 | NZDUSD 0.72283 | USDCAD 1.25532 | USDCHF 0.96545 | GBPUSD 1.27988 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.18178 | 1.17945
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 109.249 | 108.85
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.28065 | 1.27783
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.96690 | 0.96497
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.79160 | 0.78925
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.25524 | 1.25385
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72354 | 0.72106
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.14100 | 1.13967
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.92353 | 0.9225
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 128.957 | 128.544
For today
- EUR: Another quiet session with the Euro edging a little higher into the Tokyo session towards the 1.1820 area before then drifting for a good part of the session to then trade around the 1.1800 areas into the grey hour, congestive offers through to the 1.1850 areas with likely weak stops on a push through the 1.1860 areas however, from there further congestive offers leading into stronger offers towards the 1.1880-1.1900 areas a push through the level will likely see stronger stops appearing and the market opening for a larger move higher, Downside bids light with some congestive bids around the 1.1780 areas and light stops however, from 1.1760 through to the 1.1700 area is likely to see thicker congestive bids appearing with only a strong break below that level upsetting the market and leaving the market able to test to the 1.1660 areas again.
- GBP: Cable opened around the 1.2800 level with limited move to the 1.2805 before slipping slowly lower as the market saw limited bids until the 1.2780 areas. With EURGBP cross pushing above the highs of last year the market has the technical ability to test to the 2009 levels around 0.9400 before possibly any significant resistance however, this would depend on the Euro continuing its rise 12% so far this year, downside bids into the 1.2760 areas is likely to see some congestion for the moment and could possibly slow any decent however once it pushes through that level the market then becomes limited with 1.2700 sentimental support quickly giving way to stops and the 1.2630 area becomes the key level for the market to remain out of the Brexit day and General election day blues, through the level and the market is likely to see further losses with possibly stronger congestive bids into the 1.2500 areas. Topside offers light through to the 1.2840 areas where offers start to increase and those congestive offers increasing into the 1.2900 areas again, weak stops through the level will see the market stretching for the 1.2950 areas and more congestion with offers increasing into the 1.3000 level.
- JPY: Moving lower from the opening the market tested through the 108.90 areas before finding support and slowly grinding through to the 109.20 areas and holding in that area through the session and into the grey hour, Light offers through the 109.35 level again with the market likely to see limited offers through to the 109.80 areas, stronger from that point but nothing really unsurmountable with offers then continuing through the 110.00 level with weak stops likely mixed with some congestion, a test above the 110.50 areas will likely to attract some attention and a fresh test of the 111.00 level. Downside bids increasing through the 109.00 levels on a move to the past few weeks base around the 108.60-50 areas and possibly increasing in size, a push through the 108.50 areas will likely see some stronger stops appearing as the market pushes for the years lows just above the 108.00 areas and possibly stronger bids still. A move through the level though will likely see the market open to a deeper move retracing the rally from November.
- AUD: Early trading saw the Oz test through the 0.7915 levels before finding a USD strength move slowly through the market and the Oz dipping back into the 0.7890 areas and trading in a decreasing range around the 79 cent level, Downside bids into the 0.7880 forming the base for the past couple of days with congestion likely into the 0.7860 level tempering any weak stops, a push through the 0.7840 area and strong bids is likely to see some stops appear however, the 0.7775 level is likely to be the start of a stronger market with congestion likely to be thick however, this will place the market back into the 75-77 cent range again. Topside offers through to the 0.7950 areas are likely to be reasonably strong and have lasted for the past weak however, even if this level breaks the 80 cent level is likely to be clustered by offers with stops again appearing on a strong push through the level.
Â
Overnight News                                                                 Â
EUR:
ECB’s Hansson shrugs off Euro gains for now as QE talks near
Draghi: Monetary policy must always prepare for new challenges
Draghi: Says research shows QE, forward guidance are a success
AUD:
Wage growth is economies Achilles heel, warns Moody’s
USD:
US misreads rhetoric for reality on N. Korea Nikkei
Kaplan: not saying I want to raise rates again this year
Kaplan: technology breakthroughs helping to restrain inflation
House speaker Ryan: Do not think government shut down is necessary
Ryan: Congress needs more time to complete the appropriations process
Ryan: Agree with Pres. Trump of need for physical barrier on US boarder
CNY:
China’s Pres. Xi pledges concerted efforts with S. Koreas Pres. Moon to properly address differences between the two Xinhua
NZD:
NZ July new residential mortgage lending falls 24% YoY – RBNZ
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (NZD) Jul A 85M | C -200M | P 242M
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BBA Mortgage Approvals Jul P 40.2K
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q2 (P) C 0.30% | P 0.30%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Index of Services 3M/3M Jun C 0.50% | P 0.40%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Total Business Investment Q/Q Q2 (P) C -0.10% | P 0.60%
10:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CBI Realized Sales Aug C 14 | P 22
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (AUG 19) C 236K | P 232K
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Existing Home Sales Jul C 5.57M | P 5.52M
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P 53B
Jackson Hole Symposium
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A quiet Asian session with a very limited range saw the market opening around the 1.1765 areas and dipping back to the 1.1750 level into early Tokyo before recovering, the move into the grey hour and the market dropping back on mixed French numbers only to rebound from the low just above 1.1740 once the better German numbers were released forcing Euro’s back to the 1.1770 level in a quick move, the market continued to rise as Eurozone numbers saw better manufacturing over poor services, and the market pushed to the 1.1790 levels and holding through to the NYK session, the NYK market ground steadily higher to push through the 1.1800 areas, the market tested a little higher on the Eurozone confidence numbers testing the 1.1820 level and holding through to the close around the 1.1810 areas.
- GBP: Cable saw some choppy trading through the day with the market opening around the 1.2825 areas and never really able to push through that area with any conviction in Asia, the move into the grey hour saw the market holding around the opening levels with London pushing the market just above the 1.2830 level with EURGBP pushing firmly through the 0.9200 level, Cable was forced lower dropping back from the highs to trade below the 1.2800 level before holding around the level through to NYK, early NYK again sold the market lower again testing the lows around the 1.2790 areas before falling back to the 1.2780 area into the close in London, once London was out of the way the market started a limited recovery pushing back through the 1.2800 level and holding through to the close.
- JPY: Opening around the 109.60 level the market moved to the 109.70 area with the move into the Tokyo session setting the high just above the 109.80 level, the market held close to the highs before dropping back to the opening area before seeing some weak stops appearing and the market falling back to the 109.30 areas to hold through to just before the NYK opening, dip in Manufacturing numbers saw the market drop back to the 109.00 levels before ranging through towards the close between 109.00-20, dipping briefly into the final hour below the figure.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7910 areas saw the market test towards the 0.7920 in early trading however, the move into the Tokyo session and revisions in NZ surpluses and growth outlook taking the Kiwi lower, this dragged on the Oz and the market traded quickly from 0.7915 to the 0.7885 areas and based around that levels through into the London session struggling to regain the 0.7900 level until the move into the NYK session with the market rising back above the level and triggering some weak shorts, the market then continued to range between the lows and highs through to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing Aug (P) A 52.8 | C 52.3 | P 52.1
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Manufacturing PMI Aug (P) A 55 | C 54.5 | P 54.9
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Services PMI Aug (P) A 55.5 | C 55.8 | P 56
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Manufacturing PMI Aug (P) A 59.4 | C 57.7 | P 58.1
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Services PMI Aug (P) A 53.4 | C 53.3 | P 53.1
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Aug (P) A 57.4 | C 56.3 | P 56.6
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services PMI Aug (P) A 54.9 | C 55.4 | P 55.4
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â US Manufacturing PMI Aug (P) A 52.5 | C 53.4 | P 53.3
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â US Services PMI Aug (P) A 56.9 | C 54.9 | P 54.7
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Home Sales Jul A 571K | C 610K | P 610K | 630K
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Consumer Confidence Aug (A) A -2 | C -2 | P -2
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A -3.3M | C 3.3M | P -8.9M
Good Luck,
Andy
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