Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 109.558 | EURUSD 1.17994 | AUDUSD 0.79019 | NZDUSD 0.72159 | USDCAD 1.2520 | USDCHF 0.96551 | GBPUSD 1.28013 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.18044 | 1.17877
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 109.780 | 109.514
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.28136 | 1.27962
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.96596 | 0.96452
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.79046 | 0.78855
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.25363 | 1.25055
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72187 | 0.71978
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.13959 | 1.13774
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.92216 | 0.92051
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 129.511 | 129.192
For today
- EUR: Another slow day with the Euro slipping from the opening areas through steadily into mid-morning Tokyo and the 1.1790 area the market then struggled around the 1.1795-1.1800 areas through to the grey hour, topside likely to see light offers into the 1.1820 areas, stronger offers then start to appear around 1.1840 level with possible congestion through to the stronger 1.1880 level with only a clear strong break of the 1.1900 area likely to see stops appearing in size. Downside bids light through to the 1.1750 level with some congestive bids then continuing through to the stronger 1.1700 area with bids likely to continue through the level and stops limited, a test through the 1.1660 could see stops appearing on a strong break of the 1.1640 level and the market open to a deeper move.
- GBP: While the market remained quiet Cable rose a little from the opening around 1.2800 to test the 1.2810 into the Tokyo session and running along that level through into the grey hour, Topside likely to see light offers through the 1.2850 level with those offers increasing towards the 1.2900 area however, the level has been penetrated several time and while there may be some offers they are not likely to be strong enough to stop the market testing through to the 1.2950 areas with congestive offers from there onwards into the strong 1.3000 areas stops possibly through this level but even so the market is likely to see a continuation of congestive offers through to the stronger 1.3050 level where stronger stops are likely to appear, Downside bids through the 1.2800 level are likely to increase into the 1.2770 areas with sentimental bids possibly appearing on a push to the 1.2750 areas and stronger stops below to open a deeper move through to the 1.2650-30 areas.
- JPY: USDJPY struggled around the opening levels before testing quickly through the 109.60 area and testing towards 109.80 before slowly drifting back to trade around the 109.60 level again, then traded quietly for several hours into the grey hour. Topside offers into the 109.80 level continuing into 110.00 some congestive offers in the area will likely see weak stops appear on a move through and the market then facing further stronger offers on a push through the 110.50 level increasing in size the closer to the 110.80 area the market moves. Downside bids limited through the 109. Handle only increasing once the market dips through with the week being dominated by those bids into the 108.60-40 areas, a push through will possibly see weak stops joined by opening selling for the break and the market quickly testing through to the 108.00 sentimental level and limited bids into the 107.50 area.
- AUD: The Oz like the rest of the market was becalmed with limited trading through to the grey hour, with Tokyo selling the Oz back with the limited rise in USDJPY to test the 0.7885 areas before recovering in the long run to the grey hour. Topside offers into the 0.7980-0.8000 levels are likely to slow any rise however, the 80 cent level has been broken a couple of times in the past few weeks and stops are not likely to show so much with weak stops a possibility but light at best, stronger offers again into the 0.8050 level with stronger stops likely on a strong push through the 0.8060 level and a possible chance of extending through the 81 cent areas, Downside bids congested down to the 0.7820 level with stronger bids in that area and down to the 78 cent areas, a break here could see the market probing the 0.7775 areas and stronger stops and a reversal for the market back below 77 cent.
Â
Overnight News                                                                 Â
NZD:
NZ house price expectations lowest in more than five years
USD:
Congress will raise debt ceiling and has many options
Fed’s Kaplan: Inflation tepid but not lost faith it will rise
US Navy suspends sea search efforts for missing USS McCain sailors
GBP:
Risk of recession increases Times
Jump in employment costs threatens UK wage growth BCC says
EUR:
ECB to vote to end asset purchasing program on 26th Oct
Germany’s Diesel fear sees €4.5B in used cars gather dust
JPY:
Japan inflation ticks up again, but mainly on energy bills
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â National CPI Core Y/Y Jul A 0.50% | C 0.50% | P 0.40%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Aug A 0.40% | C 0.30% | P 0.20%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Corporate Service Price Y/Y Jul A 0.60% | C 0.80% | P 0.80% | R 0.70%
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German GDP Q/Q Q2 (F) C 0.60% | P 0.60%
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Business Climate Aug C 115.5 | P 116
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Expectations Aug C 106.8 | P 107.3
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Current Assessment Aug C 125 | P 125.4
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Durable Goods Orders Jul (P) C -5.80% | P 6.40%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Durables Ex Transportation Jul (P) C 0.40% | P 0.10%
Jackson Hole Symposium
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A limited day with a tight 1.1785-1.1815 range for the most part, Opening around the 1.1810 areas the market made a small move higher to set the high for the day on the move into Tokyo before falling back steadily to test into the 1.1800 areas for the bulk of the session, the move into the grey hour saw early sellers taking the market through to the London opening testing initially to the 1.1790 area before dipping through in early morning to the 1.1785 lows of the day, a quiet move through to the NYK session saw the market rebound with US Jobless numbers turning the market away from the 1.1810 levels and back to trade around the 1.1800 and ranging narrowly through to the close.
- GBP: While the UK media are talking about a recession the numbers came in generally around expectations, Cable opened around the 1.2800 areas and struggled to make any headway through the move into Tokyo before dipping away as the USD gained a little strength, the market testing through to the 1.2780 level before holding quietly for the run into the grey hour, buyers emerged as the market made the lows taking the market away from the 1.2775 area and back above the 1.2800 level, and while there was a minor dip the market continued to rise through into the NYK session pushing towards the 1.2840 level only to slip back to the opening levels as the market saw light selling towards the close in London, from there the market remained fairly static and traded around the 1.2800 areas into the close.
- JPY: USDJPY saw slow but steady gains through the day, the market opened around the 109.00 levels dipping initially through the 108.90 areas before moving into the Tokyo session and slowly rising to the 109.20 areas and held through to the grey hour, London bought from the opening to push the market to the 109.35 areas and then held through to NYK in a tight range, with London closed the USDJPY slowly moved to the 109.60 levels into the close on light volumes.
- AUD: Early buying saw the market moving to above the 0.7915 areas in Tokyo however, having reached the level the market started to see steady USD buying move into the market and Oz slip back to trade around the 0.7900 areas through to the grey hour, Early sellers moved in taking the Oz down to the 0.7865 area before seeing a steady climb back to the 79 cent areas into the NYK session on what was a very light day for the Oz volume wise, NYK continued the slow buying and although the market never quite got to the previous high of the day it did push back above the 79 cent level and then struggled to maintain the figure through to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (NZD) Jul A 85M | C -200M | P 242M | R 246M
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BBA Mortgage Approvals Jul A 41.6K | P 40.2K | R 40.4K
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q2 (P) A 0.30% | C 0.30% | P 0.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Index of Services 3M/3M Jun A 0.50% | C 0.50% | P 0.40% | R 0.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Total Business Investment Q/Q Q2 (P) A 0.00% | C -0.10% | P 0.60%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CBI Realized Sales Aug A -10 | C 14 | P 22
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (AUG 19) A 234K | C 236K | P 232K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Existing Home Sales Jul A 5.44M | C 5.57M | P 5.52M | R 5.51M
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A 43B | C 44B | P 53B
Jackson Hole Symposium
Good Luck,
Andy
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