Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 109.756 | EURUSD 1.19726 | AUDUSD 0.79519 | NZDUSD 0.72575 | USDCAD 1.25113 | USDCHF 0.95555 | GBPUSD 1.29195 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.19843 | 1.19633
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 109.917 | 109.544
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.29381 | 1.29176
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.95716 | 0.95454
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.79957 | 0.79426
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.25251 | 1.25008
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72782 | 0.72317
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.14543 | 1.14299
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.92689 | 0.92567
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 131.636 | 131.117
For today
- EUR: Opening around the 1.1970 areas the market struggled through the Asian session with the market slowly rising through to above the 1.1980 areas before holding steady into the grey hour, Topside offers very limited through to the 1.2070 levels where some limited offers appear sentimental offers likely through the 1.2100 level with weak stops on a move through the level and the topside open with very little technical until the 1.2500 areas. Downside bids light through to the 1.1920 level with possibly stronger bids into the level and the market then seeing stops appearing on a move through the 1.1880 areas.
- GBP: A limited day for Cable with early trading around the opening level 1.2920 and then rising in the later part of the session towards the 1.2940 level before holding quietly around the 1.2930. Topside offers into the 1.2980 areas through to the 1.3000 areas and possible stops through the level with congestion likely to continue through to the 1.3050 level. Downside bids light into the 1.2905 areas with limited stops on a move through the level with congestive bids then appearing through to the 1.2850 areas, a push through will possibly see weak stops however for the moment the key level is likely to be the 1.2800-1.2780 areas with a break here opening the market to the June range around the 1.2750-1.2700 areas.
- JPY: A quiet range for the USDJPY with the market opening around the 109.70 areas and a steady push towards the highs from yesterday testing a little through the 109.90 level before drifting back to the opening levels and holding above the lows around 109.55 area. Topside offers into the 110.00 level for the moment holding the market however, having been through the level several times now the offers are likely limited with weak stops above the 110.20 area, with the market likely to run into limited congestion and stronger offers again into the 110.80-111.00 areas, a push through the level with stronger stops likely and congestion thereafter. Downside bids light through to the 108.50 with stronger bids likely around that level and increasing into the 108.00 areas, a push through the level could see strong stops appearing with the market to the downside opening.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7950 levels the market moved slowly through into the Tokyo session rising a little however, today was all about replacing some of the AUDJPY positions that were cut yesterday and the AUDNZD cross with comments from RBNZ Wheeler allowing the Oz to rise and push through to the 0.7995 areas grinding through the offers to almost make the 80 cent level before holding for a period in the area before slipping a little to below the 0.7990 areas as the market moved into the grey hour. Topside offers still remain into the 80 cent areas and possible weak stops beyond the level, will likely see slightly weaker offers into the 0.8050 areas through to the 0.8060 level where it should be stronger but with possibly bigger stops attracting attention on a move through the 0.8060 level to quickly target 81 cent. Downside bids light through to the 0.7950 areas and possibly light congestive bids through to 79 cent with better bids then moving into the market on a push through weak stops around the 0.7880 level and 0.7860-40 protecting the downside.
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Overnight News                                                                 Â
NZD:
New Zealand housing market slowdown more widespread CoreLogic
Home building approvals fell a second month in July
RBNZ Wheeler: Flexible inflation targeting remains highly relevant
RBNZ Wheeler: I global economy slows RBNZ has scope to buffer NZ economy
RBNZ Wheeler: The build up of global debt a risk for NZ economy
RBNZ Wheeler: Households already heavily exposed to risk o rising interest rates, falling house prices
RBNZ Wheeler: Reserve bank policy a key driver in economic performance
RBNZ Wheeler: Domestic risks to NZ economy are migration and housing market
RBNZ Wheeler: Reference to midpoint of target range is appropriate
RBNZ Wheeler: Single inflation rate target should be avoided
RBNZ Wheeler: Long term inflation expectations remain well anchored
RBNZ Wheeler: Lower NZD needed to increase tradable
UN:
Condemns N. Korea missile launch as outrageous threat against Japan demands Pyongyang not fire again statement
Says of vital importance that N. Korea take immediate concrete actions to reduce tensions, call on all state to implement sanctions
China’s UN ambassador calls for halt to deployment of US missile defence system in S. Korea, opposed to any chaos or war on Korean peninsula
China UN ambassador urges countries to stop imposing unilateral sanctions on individuals, entites in other countries
Russia’s UN ambassador says can be no military solution to the issues plaguing Korean peninsula also against unilateral sanctions
Russia’s UN ambassador says deployment of US missile defence system in S. Korea should be abandoned and joint US, S. Korean exercises scaled down
EUR:
ECB’s German problem owes a lot to a Munich based think tank, the IFO
KRW:
- Korea’s IRBM training is meaningful prelude to containing Guam KCNA
- Korea says no impact on safety of neighbouring countries
- Korea test fired Hwasong-12 against US S. Korea drills KCNA
USD:
Trump vows all options open after N. Korea missile test
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits M/M Jul A -0.70% | P -1.00% | R -1.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Aug A -0.30% | P -0.40%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Trade Y/Y Jul A 1.90% | C 1.00% | P 2.10% | R 2.20%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction Work Done Q2 A 9.30% | C 1.00% | P -0.70% | R 0.90%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Approvals M/M Jul A -1.70% | C -5.00% | P 10.90% | R 11.70%
06:00Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â UBS Consumption Indicator Jul P 1.38
07:00Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â KOF Leading Indicator Aug C 107 | P 106.8
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Mortgage Approvals Jul C 65.5K | P 64.7K
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â M4 Money Supply M/M Jul C 0.40% | P -0.20%
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Business Climate Indicator Aug C 1.05 | P 1.05
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Economic Confidence Aug C 111.3 | P 111.2
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Industrial Confidence Aug C 4.7 | P 4.5
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services Confidence Aug C 13.9 | P 14.1
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Consumer Confidence Aug (F) C -1.5 | P -1.5
12:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI M/M Aug (P) C 0.10% | P 0.40%
12:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI Y/Y Aug (P) C 1.80% | P 1.70%
12:15Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ADP Employment Change Aug C 188K | P 178K
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP (Annualized) Q2 (S) C 2.70% | P 2.60%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Price Index Q2 (S) C 1.00% | P 1.00%
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories P -3.3M
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A quiet Asian session range wise with the market dipping a little on the news of a missile flying over Northern Japan to fall into the Pacific however, the first few minutes saw a quick warning to the island and nervousness, Euro’s having pushed to the 1.1985 areas dropped back to the 1.1955 areas before finding limited bids and pushed back to the 1.1970 areas to trade through to the grey hour, London were early buyers with the market rising slowly through the 1.1990 areas before breaking quickly through the 1.2000 level triggering weak stops and pushing to the 1.2030 level the market stalled a little before again making a move higher this time a little slower but just as determined to the 1.2070 areas, with rhetoric again flowing out of the Europe with the UK needing to pay an exorbitant amount before negotiations to buy Eurozone goods stalls again, the market started to drift from the highs slowly trading back through the 1.2050 levels and trading through into the NYK session around that level the close in London saw the market increase its decline and the market saw weak stops on the break back below the 1.1980 level with a quick spike to the 1.1950 level and holding the 119.70 areas to the close.
- GBP: A steady climb through the session saw the market dip from the initial opening around the 1.2935 areas to trade to the 1.2925 level, the news from N. Korea saw the market eventually start to rise with commodities and some less than normal flow to safe havens, the break higher by the Euro saw the Cable rising through into the London session to the 1.2960 level before pausing then following through to test the 1.2980 areas and running out of steam as the offers held, good volume across the board, the flow through into the NYK session saw the market back to the 1.2950 areas and the move through to the opening levels was a sedate affair however, the close in London saw the market pushing through to the 1.2915 areas before holding just off those lows.
- JPY: USDJPY made the early highs from the opening before dropping quickly back as the missile flew across Japan touching through to the 108.30 level as safe haven flows moved in however, seen as the missile was flying over Japan one wonders where the safe haven was, the rhetoric then kicked off with a call for and emergency meeting of the UN security council who as we see today discussed the unfair sanctions against N. Korea as well as the missile saw the market bounce off the lows and push back to the 108.90 levels and hold through to the London session, London were sellers again and the market with the push through to make lows around the 108.30 level and then hold around the 108.50 areas into the NYK session, NYK saw steady buying as the US awoke and started the push back with the USDJPY slowly grinding back through the opening levels and weak stops pushing it through to the 109.50 levels, the market peaked through to the 109.90 area with a couple of hours to go before slipping a little lower into the close.
- AUD: AUDJPY took a little battering from the opening and the Oz fell back with the USDJPY testing through to the 0.7910 areas before bouncing off the level and pushing back to the 0.7940 areas and holding quietly through to the London session, steady buying through the early morning saw the market push through to the opening levels around the 0.7965 areas before slowing and holding through to the NYK session, NYK pushed the market back above as the UN council met and discussed the issue and NYK took the market to the 0.7980 areas and hold for a period around the 0.7970 level, the move through to the close was quiet steady drift with the market dipping back to hold around the 0.7950 areas.
Yesterday’s premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Jul A 2.80% | C 2.80% | P 2.80%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Household Spending Y/Y Jul A -0.20% | C 0.70% | P 2.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Nationwide House Prices M/M Aug A -0.10% | C 0.00% | P 0.30% | R 0.20%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German GfK Consumer Confidence Sep A 10.9 | C 10.8 | P 10.8
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â French GDP Q/Q Q2 (P) A 0.50% | C 0.50% | P 0.50%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Product Price M/M Jul A -1.50% | C -0.50% | P -1.00% | R -1.10%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Raw Materials Price Index M/M Jul A -0.60% | C -0.30% | P -3.70% | R -3.60%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Jun A 5.70% | C 5.60% | P 5.69%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Confidence Aug A 122.9 | C 120.4 | P 121.1
Good Luck,
Andy
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