Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 110.243 | EURUSD 1.18835 | AUDUSD 0.79053 | NZDUSD 0.72014 | USDCAD 1.26208 | USDCHF 0.96363 | GBPUSD 1.29241 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.18973 | 1.18715
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 110.609 | 110.165
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.29304 | 1.29055
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.96458 | 0.96211
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.79230 | 0.78868
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.26517 | 1.26205
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72099 | 0.71635
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.14594 | 1.1439
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.92075 | 0.91861
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 131.439 | 130.935
For today
- EUR: A limited attempt to push back towards the 1.1900 areas before slipping back once the China numbers were released trading back to range in the 1.1870-80 areas. Limited offers through to the 1.1980 level where strong offers appear on a move towards the 1.2000, likely weak stops on a move through with congestive offers into the 1.2040-60 areas, stronger stops are likely above the level with a run to the 1.2100 areas likely to be quick, downside bids in the current areas around the 1.1880 level with minor congestion into the 1.1840 area before the downside opens through to the 1.1820-00 level and congestive bids reappear.
- GBP: The Cable drifted through the Asian session while the USD found some limited buying, Cable opened around the 1.2925 areas slipping slowly through to test towards the 1.2905 areas before holding above the 1.2910 areas through into the grey hour, Topside offers into the 1.2950 level with congestive offers increasing in size on a move to the 1.3000 area, through the level the market remains congestive with stronger offers moving through into the 1.3050 level with stops likely to appear through the level and the potential for a run at the 1.3100 areas and beyond. Downside bids congestive on a move back through the 1.2900 areas with 1.2850 likely to see some stronger bids, a a move through the level will possibly see weak stops appearing before running into further bids as the market runs towards the 1.2800 level.
- JPY: USDJPY continued its steady climb pushing from the opening around the 110.25 areas to test the 110.55 level before ranging around the level with a brief attempt above the 110.60 levels, Topside offers through to the 111.00 with the stronger offers building into the 110.80-111.00 area with likely congestive offers then continuing through the level with some stops mixed in, a push towards the 111.80 areas will see some stronger offers and possibly some light stops in the area however, a push through the 1.1200 area opens further gains. Downside bids light through to the 109.50 areas with congestive bids likely to increase on a move through to the 109.00 areas, weak stops through the level are likely to see increasing bids around the 108.80-50 levels with strong stops on a push below the 108.40.
- AUD: The Oz initially pushed off the 79 cent areas to test through to the 0.7920 level before the release of the CNY numbers from that point the Oz made its first attempt through the 0.7900 pushing through to the 0.7890 levels before finding some support in a limited market to hold above the figure level through to the grey hour. Topside offers through to the 80 cent level a little thinned out however, likely to still be reasonably strong a push through to the 0.8020 level will likely see weak stops and some stronger offers then appearing around the 0.8040-60 areas with strong stops possibly through the level and the market open for a stronger move higher, Downside bids through to the 0.7880 areas with light stops through the level before further bids appear on a move through to the 0.7860-40 level, congestion again appears through to the 0.7800 level with the bids increasing the closer the market gets, a push through the level will likely see stronger stops appearing but possible bids into the 0.7775 areas.
Â
Overnight News                                                                 Â
USD:
Trump says talk with N. Korea done as Mattis urges diplomacy
Hurricane Harvey to cost Texas $58b in losses – report
AUD:
RBA says high household debt limits impact of monetary policy
SGD:
Singapore July bank lending falls 0.5% MoM
EUR:
France seeks 600m Euros in taxes from Microsoft report
NZD:
New Zealand posts slowest household lending growth since 2015
JPY:
Reuters poll Japan fund managers raise overall stock holdings in Aug to 38.3% from 37.1% in July
Reuters poll Japan fund managers trim overall bond holdings in Aug to 57.3% from 58.7% in July
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GfK Consumer Confidence Aug A -10 | C -13 | P -12
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Jul (P) A -0.80% | C -0.30% | P 2.20%
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ANZ Business Confidence Aug A 18.3 | P 19.4
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing PMI Aug A 51.7 | C 51.3 | P 51.4
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Non-manufacturing PMI Aug A 53.4 | P 54.5
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Private Capital Expenditure Q2 A 0.80% | C 0.20% | P 0.30%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Y/Y Jul A -2.30% | C -0.30% | P 1.70%
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Retail Sales M/M Jul C -0.60% | P 1.10%
07:55Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Unemployment Change Aug C -6K | P -9K
07:55Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Unemployment Rate Aug C 5.70% | P 5.70%
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Unemployment Rate Jul C 9.10% | P 9.10%
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Aug C 1.40% | P 1.30%
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI – Core Y/Y Aug (A) C 1.20% | P 1.20%
11:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Aug P -37.60%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP M/M Jun C 0.10% | P 0.60%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (AUG 26) C 237K | P 234K
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Personal Income Jul C 0.30% | P 0.00%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Personal Spending Jul C 0.40% | P 0.10%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Deflator M/M Jul C 0.10% | P 0.00%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Deflator Y/Y Jul C 1.40% | P 1.40%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Core M/M Jul C 0.10% | P 0.10%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Core Y/Y Jul C 1.40% | P 1.50%
13:45Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Chicago PMI Aug C 59.2 | P 58.9
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Pending Home Sales M/M Jul C 0.50% | P 1.50%
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P 43B
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: While volumes were reasonable the Asian market remained fairly limited with the Euro opening around the 1.1970 areas and pushing eventually through the 1.1980 level, the move into the grey hour saw the market drifting from the highs and into the London session just holding the 1.1950 area remaining in that area through to the NYK session with most of the Eurozone confidence numbers better than expected, the move into the NYK session saw the Euro slipping further and the release of the ADP numbers saw the first attempt to push through the 1.1900 levels. With strong data from the US the market continued to slip a little lower to push towards the 1.1880 areas before holding to the close.
- GBP: A fairly limited day for the Cable with the market holding its levels for the most part, with the market opening around the 1.2920 areas and trading sideways, the move deeper into the session saw the Cable slowly rising through to the 1.2940 areas to post the high for the day, the move into the grey hour saw the market losing the gains and the move into the London session saw the market testing the 1.2900 areas with a limited test through the level, little data to support the market saw the Eurozone numbers dominating the market and the fall back of the Euro saw selling in the cross with the Cable benefitting from the move, the move through to the NYK session saw strong data releases in the US and the Cable quickly testing to the lows around the 1.2880 level before bouncing quickly through to return to the previous levels and another attempt at the highs, the market remained unchanged for the day in the run to the close.
- JPY: A steady rise through the day with the market opening around the 109.70 level the market initially tested through to the 109.55 areas before moving into Tokyo and testing to the 109.80 levels in slow trading, the move into the London session saw strong buyers emerge and push quickly through the 110.00 area to struggle in the 110.20 area for a few hours, the market then drifted on lack of interest for the move into NYK, decent US numbers saw the market pushing again above the 110.00 level and touching through the 110.40 to make the highs before holding in a narrow range through to the close of London, the market was unable to make new highs but through to the close remained in touch with the area.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7950 levels the move into the Tokyo session saw the market rising quickly through to the 0.7990 level with the help of RBNZ Wheeler’s comments producing a run on the AUDNZD cross and the market in striking distance of the 80 cent level as it moved into the grey hour however, it wasn’t to be with early London sellers taking the market back to the 0.7960 level and holding for a brief period before resuming the a more sedate decline through the day with the US numbers helping it along testing into the London close below the 79 cent level and keeping a tight range through to the end of the day.
Yesterday’s premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits M/M Jul A -0.70% | P -1.00% | R -1.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Aug A -0.30% | P -0.40%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Trade Y/Y Jul A 1.90% | C 1.00% | P 2.10% | R 2.20%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction Work Done Q2 A 9.30% | C 1.00% | P -0.70% | R 0.90%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Approvals M/M Jul A -1.70% | C -5.00% | P 10.90% | R 11.70%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â UBS Consumption Indicator Jul A 1.38 | P 1.38 | R 1.3
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â KOF Leading Indicator Aug A 104.1 | C 107 | P 106.8
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Mortgage Approvals Jul A 69K | C 65.5K | P 64.7K
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â M4 Money Supply M/M Jul A 0.50% | C 0.40% | P -0.20% | R -0.10%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Business Climate Indicator Aug A 1.09 | C 1.05 | P 1.05 | R 1.04
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Economic Confidence Aug A 111.9 | C 111.3 | P 111.2 | R 111.3
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Industrial Confidence Aug A 5.1 | C 4.7 | P 4.5
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services Confidence Aug A 14.9 | C 13.9 | P 14.1 | R 14.2
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Consumer Confidence Aug (F) A -1.5 | C -1.5 | P -1.5
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI M/M Aug (P) A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.40%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI Y/Y Aug (P) A 1.80% | C 1.80% | P 1.70%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ADP Employment Change Aug A 237K | C 188K | P 178K | R 201K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP (Annualized) Q2 (S) A 3.00% | C 2.70% | P 2.60%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Price Index Q2 (S) A 1.00% | C 1.00% | P 1.00%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A -5.4M | C -1.8M | P -3.3M
Good Luck,
Andy
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