Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 109.977 | EURUSD 1.19093 | AUDUSD 0.79461 | NZDUSD 0.71799 | USDCAD 1.24827 | USDCHF 0.95874 | GBPUSD 1.29296 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.19230 | 1.18953
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 110.146 | 109.889
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.29471 | 1.29212
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.96027 | 0.9573
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.79569 | 0.79373
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.24881 | 1.24507
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.71891 | 0.71658
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.14350 | 1.14148
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.92206 | 0.91953
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 131.189 | 130.878
For today
- EUR: From the opening saw the market move slowly through towards the 1.1920 level before drifting through into the Tokyo session with some EURGBP selling moving through the market, as the market moved towards the grey hour the market tested through the 1.1900 levels in limited volumes. Topside offers light through the 1.1940-60 level with increasing offers if the market moves towards the 1.1980-1.2000 level where offers again seem to be reasonably strong. Downside bids light through to the 1.1860-40 levels with possible weak stops through the level and increasing bids into the 1.1820-1.1800 area. A move through this level will likely see weak stops appearing on a push through the 1.1775 areas.
- GBP: Opening a little lower the market started to trade slowly higher and pushing towards the 1.2950 areas before holding quietly around the 1.2945 areas, the move towards the grey hour saw the market dropping back to test towards the opening levels, Topside offers into the 1.2950 level and likely to increase on a move through to the 1.3000 levels, a move through may see some weak stops however, the break will likely meet strong congestive offers through to the 1.3050 areas with strong stops beyond and quickly testing to the 1.3100 areas. Downside bids light through to the 1.2850 areas where better bids appear with possible weak stops through the level with congestive bids likely on a move through to the 1.2800 areas and stronger bids move in, those bids likely to continue through to the 1.2780 levels before stops appear.
- JPY: A very quiet day for the USDJPY as the market moves into a long weekend for the USD, rising from the opening just below 110.00 the market tested through to the 110.10 level on the move before slowing and holding between the 110.05-15 for a large portion of the Tokyo session, the market dipped back for the run to the grey hour basing on the figure areas with very little volume. Topside offers light through to the 110.50 areas with strong congestion around the level, with increasing offers the closer that you get to the 111.00 areas, with likely weak stops on a push through the level and opens the market to a quick move through to the 111.50-60 areas with the same pattern then building into the 112.00 areas. Downside bids congested into the 109.30-60 areas with a move through to the 109.00 level seeing stronger bids appearing and continuing through to 108.50 level, with the long weekend the pair is likely to be a little quiet.
- AUD: The Oz remained in a tight range through to the grey hours only losing ground late into the grey hour, pushing to the 0.7955 area in the middle of the session it was short lived before drifting back off and through into the 0.7940 areas into the grey hour, As with the USDJPY with a long weekend for US Labour day the market is likely to struggle for momentum however, a push through the 0.7960 areas will likely run into further offers on a move towards the 80 cent areas with only a strong push through that level opening the topside up for further gains, Downside bids into the 0.79 cent level likely to be weaker than previous and open to the 0.7870 areas where better bids start to appear and continue through to the 0.7840 areas.
Â
Overnight News                                                                 Â
NZD:
NZ house prices post smallest annual gain in five years.
CAD:
CAD rides high as GDP rise ignites talk of earlier rate rises
MXN:
The peso dips back on NAFTA talks and remains under pressure
GBP:
BoE’s Saunders says Brexit risks don’t justify low rate
CNY:
Bad debts still mount at China’s big four banks
AUD:
Sydney house price growth has passed its peak corelogic
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Terms of Trade Index Q/Q Q2 A 1.50% | C 3.00% | P 5.10% | R 3.90%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Capital Spending Q2 A 1.50% | C 8.30% | P 4.50%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing Aug (F) A 52.2 | C 52.8 | P 52.8
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Caixin PMI Manufacturing Aug A 51.6 | C 51 | P 51.1
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Confidence Index Aug A 43.3 | C 43.6 | P 43.8
07:15Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales (Real) Y/Y Jul C 1.70% | P 1.50%
07:30Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SVME PMI Aug C 60.2 | P 60.9
07:45Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Italy Manufacturing PMI Aug C 55.3 | P 55.1
07:50Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Manufacturing PMI Aug (F) C 55.8 | P 55.8
07:55Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Manufacturing PMI Aug (F) C 59.4 | P 59.4
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Aug (F) C 57.4 | P 57.4
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing Aug C 55 | P 55.1
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Change in Non-farm Payrolls Aug C 180K | P 209K
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Aug C 4.30% | P 4.30%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Average Hourly Earnings M/M Aug C 0.20% | P 0.30%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing PMI Aug P 55.5
13:45Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing PMI Aug (F) C 52.6 | P 52.5
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Manufacturing Aug C 56.5 | P 56.3
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Prices Paid Aug C 63 | P 62
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â U. of Michigan Confidence Aug (F) C 97.3 | P 97.6
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction Spending M/M Jul C 0.50% | P -1.30%
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: Limited range through the Asian session with the market holding around the 1.1890 levels in the early part before dipping back after the release of the China numbers, the market then ranged around the 1.1870 areas through to the early numbers, weaker than expected German retail sales saw the market inexplicably rise through to the 1.1900 levels with early European buyers before dropping back again just before the NYK session, the fall below the lows saw weak stops appearing and the market quickly testing the 1.1850 areas and the move into the NYK session saw the sellers slowly continuing with the market testing to the 1.1820 areas, with mixed numbers the USD began to slip slowly back and the Euro made steady headway back to the opening levels and eventually pushing tentatively through the 1.1900 levels, once the London session finished the market again started to rise slowly pushing through to test the 1.1910 levels into the close.
- GBP: A slow drift through the Asian session saw the market move from the opening around the 1.2920 levels to move towards the 1.2900 areas after the release of the CNY numbers before recovering in the run to the grey hour, once the market push through into the London session the sellers appeared and the market saw a steady decline in a tight channel through towards the 1.2850 level and the opening in NYK, Cable then saw a slow rise trading back to the 1.2890 levels until late in the session before poppi9ng through the 1.2900 level and squeezing higher with weak stop through to the 1.2930 level.
- JPY: USDJPY made early progress pushing from the opening 110.25 levels to push into the Tokyo session testing the 110.55 levels the move through the balance of Asia saw the market struggling around those levels, the move through into London saw very little difference with London managing to extend the highs but only just ticking through the 110.65 areas before the NYK session opened and the market started a fall back into the end of London testing quickly through the opening levels with the low made on light stops to the 109.80 levels and holding through to the close just below the 110.00 areas.
- AUD: As with the others a fairly quiet range through to the London session with Oz rising from the opening level to test lightly through the 0.7920 areas, the release of the CNY numbers saw the market dip back to the 0.7890 level and slowly recover through to hold the 79 cent level into the grey hour, there was some light selling however, the market slowly moved back to the opening levels into London and slowly drifted through to the 0.7870 areas, the move into the NYK session saw the USD dipping and the Oz free to trade slowly higher triggering weak stops on a move through the 0.7920 areas and slowly moving to test the 0.7950 levels through to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GfK Consumer Confidence Aug A -10 | C -13 | P -12
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Jul (P) A -0.80% | C -0.30% | P 2.20%
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ANZ Business Confidence Aug A 18.3 | P 19.4
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing PMI Aug A 51.7 | C 51.3 | P 51.4
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Non-manufacturing PMI Aug A 53.4 | P 54.5
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Private Capital Expenditure Q2 A 0.80% | C 0.20% | P 0.30%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Y/Y Jul A -2.30% | C -0.30% | P 1.70%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Retail Sales M/M Jul A -1.20% | C -0.60% | P 1.10% | R 1.30%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Unemployment Change Aug A -5K | C -6K | P -9K
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Unemployment Rate Aug A 5.70% | C 5.70% | P 5.70%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Unemployment Rate Jul A 9.10% | C 9.10% | P 9.10%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Aug A 1.20% | C 1.40% | P 1.30%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI – Core Y/Y Aug (A) A 1.20% | C 1.20% | P 1.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Aug A 5.10% | P -37.60%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP M/M Jun A 0.30% | C 0.10% | P 0.60%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (AUG 26) A 236K | C 237K | P 234K | R 235K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Personal Income Jul A 0.40% | C 0.30% | P 0.00%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Personal Spending Jul A 0.30% | C 0.40% | P 0.10% | R 0.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Deflator M/M Jul A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.00%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Deflator Y/Y Jul A 1.40% | C 1.40% | P 1.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Core M/M Jul A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Core Y/Y Jul A 1.40% | C 1.40% | P 1.50%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Chicago PMI Aug A 58.9 | C 59.2 | P 58.9
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Pending Home Sales M/M Jul A -0.80% | C 0.50% | P 1.50% | R 1.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A 30B | C 33B | P 43B
Good Luck,
Andy
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