Untitled

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 109.715 | EURUSD 1.1898 | AUDUSD 0.79451 | NZDUSD 0.71695 | USDCAD 1.24144 | USDCHF 0.95802 | GBPUSD 1.29318 |

LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT

                                High | Low

EURUSD               1.19114 | 1.18903

USDJPY                 109.837 | 109.205

GBPUSD               1.29398 | 1.29207

USDCHF               0.95898 | 0.9544

AUDUSD              0.79861 | 0.79429

USDCAD               1.24172 | 1.23899

NZDUSD               0.71769 | 0.71595

EURCHF                1.14060 | 1.13677

EURGBP               0.92122 | 0.92002

EURJPY                 130.621 | 130.033

For today

• EUR: A quiet steady rise once the market moved into the Tokyo session rising from an early low in the 1.1890 area to push through to the 1.1910 in steady trading, Topside offers light through the 1.1920 areas with possibly weak stops and offers likely to build through the 1.1940-60 areas and into the stronger 1.1980-1.2000 level, with possibly stronger stops beyond. Downside bids light through the 1.1900 areas with some limited support into the 1.1880 areas before the stronger 1.1840 levels comes into play with varying bids through to 1.1780 area where bids are likely to be stronger with stops awaiting below and the market moving into the congested area from last month.
• GBP: Early gains into the 1.2935 level were quickly eroded into the Tokyo session drifting off to the 1.2920 areas holding the level for the bulk of the session before slowly rising to set the high around the 1.2940 area and holding in the 1.2930 into the grey hour, Topside offers through the 1.2950 areas and continuing into the 1.3000 level with stronger offers in the area and congestion likely on a move through towards the 1.3050 level, weak stops above the level will likely see a test of the 1.3100 level and possibly replication of the type of offers around the 1.3050 area. Downside bids light through the 1.2900 areas with limited stops on the move through, stronger bids likely on a move through the 1.2850 areas are likely then to melt away with possible light stops and stronger bids into the 1.2800 level protecting a possible stronger fall back.
• JPY: With contingency plans being made for refugees from Korea if things escalate, the market opened around the 109.70 level and traded to above the 109.80 areas before starting a steady drop back hitting the 109.50 level quickly and pausing before dropping a second time then ranging in the 109.30-20 areas through to the grey hour, Topside offers light through to the 109.80 areas with offers reforming above the level and into 110.00 areas however, limited stops through the level and stronger offers are likely only once the market starts to push through the 110.50 areas, with true stops likely above the 111.00 levels, downside bids into the 109.00 areas, with possibly strong congestion for the moment down to the 108.50 areas, weak stops likely on a move through the level however, stronger bids are likely to move into the 108.00 areas.
• AUD: Opening quietly the Oz moved quickly off the lows below 0.7950 areas testing through to 0.7965 before drifting after the release of RBA communique, the market then ranged around the 0.7965 through to the grey hour, Topside offers strong into the 80 cent level with possible weak stops through the level opening a less volatile move to the 0.8050 areas than last month, Downside bids limited into the 79 cent areas however, these are likely to have improved a little today and congestion through the level leave the market more supportive in that area, limited stops on a move through the level and the market is likely to see stronger bids appearing into the 0.7860-40 areas and again around the 0.7820-00 levels and a limited downside.

 

Overnight News                                                                  

AUD:

Unchanged rates at 1.5%

RBA: Global economy continuing to improve

RBA: Judged steady policy consistent with growth inflation targets

RBA: rising Oz would lead to slower economic growth than otherwise

RBA: Recent rise in Oz weighing on outlook for output and employment

RBA: Higher Oz is restraining price pressures

RBA: House prices rising briskly in some markets

RBA: growth expected to pick up gradually over the coming years

RBA: Drag following mining investment boom almost complete

RBA: Some signs housing market starting to cool

RBA: Housing debt has outpaced slow growth in incomes

RBA: Expects gradual increase in underlying inflation

RBA: employment has been stronger over recent months, forward looking indicators are strong

NOK/GBP:

Norway’s giant oil fund loads up on British assets

KRW:

1. Korea starts moving ICBM for possible launch before Saturday
2. Korea defence minister suggests return of tactical US nuclear weapons

USD:

As Hurricane Irma strengthens, Florida declares state of emergency

NZD:

Weak construction data has analysts wary of RBNZ growth outlook

Auckland house prices edge higher as sales slow

GBP:

Theresa May wants to intensify speed of Brexit negotiations

JPY:

Japan preparing for evacuation of tens of thousands in S. Korea

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

NZD       ANZ Commodity Price Aug A -0.80% | P -0.80%

AUD       Current Account Balance (AUD) Q2 A -9.6B | C -7.4B | P -3.1B | R -4.8B

CNY        Caixin PMI Services Aug A 52.7 | C 51.8 | P 51.5

AUD       RBA Rate Decision A 1.50% | C 1.50% | P 1.50%

CHF        GDP Q/Q Q2 A 0.3% | C 0.50% | P 0.30%

CHF        GDP Y/Y Q2 A 0.3% | C 1.00% | P 1.10%

07:15     CHF        CPI M/M Aug C 0.00% | P -0.30%

07:15     CHF        CPI Y/Y Aug C 0.50% | P 0.30%

07:45     EUR        Italy Services PMI Aug C 55.5 | P 56.3

07:50     EUR        France Services PMI Aug (F) C 55.5 | P 55.5

07:55     EUR        Germany Services PMI Aug (F) C 53.4 | P 53.4

08:00     EUR        Eurozone Services PMI Aug (F) C 54.9 | P 54.9

08:30     GBP       Services PMI Aug C 53.5 | P 53.8

09:00     EUR        Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Jul C -0.30% | P 0.50%

14:00     USD       Factory Orders Jul C -3.30% | P 3.00%

Harry Hindsight

• EUR: With the US bank holiday for Labour day saw the Euro trading quietly through the Asian session and with limited effect through the day, opening around the 1.1880 levels and some 15 pips higher than the close the Euro held the 1.1880-90 levels through to the London session, limited buying as the market moved into the grey hour saw the market testing to the 1.1900 areas and with some limited numbers the market pushed through the figure and tested to the 1.1920 on light weak volume, the market was a little choppy as you’d expect on a bank holiday before selling down again to trade around the figure through from the close in London to the days close.
• GBP: Opening in line with the close on Friday the stronger rhetoric from the US saw the market in most currencies effected however, the GBP had limited movement on that, trading quietly through the Asian session, trading through to the 1.2965 area before slowly slipping back to the 1.2950 levels as the market moved into the London session, while Asia ignored the European rhetoric on teaching the UK something London did react a little and the market tested through to the 1.2930 areas, before holding through to the London close around the 1.2950 areas, the end of the London session saw some limited EURGBP buying moving through the market and the GBP forced back towards the 1.2910 areas before holding on for a close around the 1.2930 level.
• JPY: USDJPY opened around the 10960 level some 70 pips lower having tested even further in the early pre-market interbank exchanges, the market saw a quick rise through to the 109.90 levels in the first hour before holding through into the Tokyo session just below that level, the move through the next few hours saw limited trading with the market generally holding 109.70-80 areas through to quick selling in the grey hours testing towards the 109.30 levels and then drifting around the 109.40 area, the market slowly ground higher through the course of the day but it was negligible.
• AUD: A very quiet day for the Oz with the market suffering from AUDJPY selling in the pre-market session before opening around the 0.7950 levels before rising in the first hour to fill the small 15 pip gap on the charts before slowly drifting through the day having peaked around the 0.7970 areas to finish the day around the 0.7945 levels and on its lows.

Yesterday’s premiership results

JPY         Monetary Base Y/Y Aug A 16.30% | C 15.60% | P 15.60%

AUD       TD Securities Inflation M/M Aug A 0.10% | P 0.10%

AUD       Company Operating Profit Q/Q Q2 A -4.50% | C -4.00% | P 6.00%

EUR        Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Sep A 28.2 | C 27 | P 27.7

GBP       Construction PMI Aug A 51.1 | C 52 | P 51.9

EUR        Eurozone PPI M/M Jul A 0.00% | C 0.10% | P -0.10% | R -0.20%

EUR        Eurozone PPI Y/Y Jul A 2.00% | C 2.10% | P 2.50% | R 2.40%

Good Luck,

Andy

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.

Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.

If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.