Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 109.233 | EURUSD 1.19173 | AUDUSD 0.80004 | NZDUSD 0.71912 | USDCAD 1.2227 | USDCHF 0.95656 | GBPUSD 1.30425 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.19293 | 1.1903
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 108.803 | 108.511
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.30446 | 1.30283
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.95590 | 0.95334
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.80209 | 0.79762
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.23980 | 1.23657
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72609 | 0.72220
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.13832 | 1.13676
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.91481 | 0.91339
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 129.705 | 129.369
For today
- EUR: A very quiet session with the market moving off the 1.1920 level and rising through to test the 1.1935 levels before ranging quietly around the 1.1925 area. Topside offers into the 1.1980 levels and through to the 1.2000 area are likely to be fairly strong with weak stops through the level and some congestive offers increasing through to the 1.2060 areas, stronger offers then start to appear on a run to the 1.2100 level with possible light option barriers. Downside bids congestive through the 1.1900 areas with light stops on a move through the 1.1880 areas with stronger bids likely to appear on a move into the 1.1850 areas with weak stops through 1.1840, bids likely increasing into the 1.1820-00 level and congestion through.
- GBP: Cable oved through to test quickly to the 1.3060 level before holding quietly around the 1.3045 area in a very tight range, Topside offers into the 1.3100 areas with some congestion in front of the level, a push through will likely see light congestion all the way through to the stronger 1.3200-20 areas. Downside bids light back through the 1.3000 levels with limited stops on the move through with nothing major to stand in the way through to the 1.2900 areas, with congestion then appearing below that level to slow any move.
- JPY: As the Rhetoric increases again the USDJPY slipped a little lower testing down to the 1.0890 levels before bouncing back to the 109.20 level and drifting off to the 109.00 into the grey hour, Downside bids into the 108.50 areas and through for a short distance with stronger bids into the low 108.00 areas, a break through the 108.00 level could see stronger stops appearing and the market opening to a larger drop if it can move through the 107.50 levels, Topside offers light through to the 109.50 areas with stronger congestion on a move through the level and into the 110.00 areas, weak stops through that level could see the market opening for a fresh push towards the 111.00 areas with stronger offers through the 110.80 areas.
- AUD: An optimistic opening with the Oz pushing from the lows just below the 80 cent level and testing through to the 0.8015 areas for the run to the numbers, a weaker than expected retail sales number saw the market immediately drop below the figure area and then drift through to the 0.7985 areas to hold the area into the grey hour, Topside offers through to the 0.8060 areas remain in place and reasonably strong with weak stops through the level and the 81 cent level likely to come into view for a test, Downside bids congestive through to the 79 cent level with strength before that area around the 0.7950 area, a test through will see similar bids on a move to 79 cent and then weak stops on a drop below the level and further congestive bids.
Â
Overnight News                                                                 Â
USD:
Trump sides with democrats on debt ceiling, throwing Republican plans into Chaos
Fischer exit sharpens Trump Fed choice, continuity or disruption
Trump’s approach to N. Korea veers toward military options
Fischer, in letter to Trump, cites personal reasons for leaving
US is said to seek ban of crude oil to N. Korea at UN
Trump says will get into great detail on tax reform in next two weeks
President Trump unlikely to nominate Gary Cohn to become Fed Chairman
US treasury secretary Mnuchin says he expects tax bill to be in congressional committees later this month
US seeks UN consent to interdict N. Korean ships
EUR:
ECB draft forecasts are said to cut 2018/19 inflation slightly
ECB scenarios for QE are said not to be formal policy proposals
KRW:
- Korea threatens to fire missiles farther toward Pacific
CNY:
China cites face surging funding costs as default concerns rise
USD/KRW:
US halt discussion over ending US-S. Korea trade deal
JPY:
Foreign outflows from Japan stocks lose momentum Japanese sold net 117.9B Yen overseas debt last week
AUD:
Retail sales stumble into 3Q
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Jul A 0.00% | C 0.20% | P 0.30% | R 0.20%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (AUD) Jul A 0.46B | C 0.95B | P 0.86B | R 0.89B
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Leading Index Jul (P) A 105.0 | C 105.1 | P 105.9 | R 105.7
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Industrial Production M/M Jul C 0.60% | P -1.10%
07:00Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Foreign Currency Reserves Aug P 714B
11:45Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Rate Decision C 0.00% | P 0.00%
12:30Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Press Conference
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits M/M Jul C -1.00% | P 2.50%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (SEP 02) C 242K | P 236K
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Non-Farm Productivity Q2 (F) C 1.20% | P 0.90%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unit Labour Costs Q2 (F) P 0.40% | P 0.60%
14:00Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Ivey PMI Aug C 61.3 | P 60
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P 30B
15:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories P -5.4M
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: Meagre gains from the opening the market moved off the 1.1915 areas and pushed to the 1.1925 level and held there deep into the session before dropping back quickly to hold the 1.1905 areas, the move through the balance of the Asian session saw the market struggling around the opening levels before moving into the grey hour and testing through to the 1.1930 level, the push through the early Eurozone numbers saw the market pushing through to the 1.1950 areas and staying in touch with the level before dipping back to the opening level for the move into the grey hour, a slightly better trade balance in NYK saw the market ranging through to the close with a general drift towards the lows again only to finish the day just above the opening levels.
- GBP: Cable struggled for the day with the market holding in a tight range through to the London session, opening around the 1.3035 level the market drifted through to the grey hour ranging around the opening level before dropping back to the 1.3020 areas before London’s opening, the market saw a steady rise through to the NYK session testing the 1.3050 level a weaker ISM number saw the Cable test to the 1.3080 areas with a few weak stops helping before dropping back again and then holding just above the opening levels.
- JPY: A slight weakening of the USDJPY through the Asian session with the market opening around the 108.70 levels filling a minor gap and dipping back to the 108.50 areas and ranging between the two through to the mid-morning period in London, the move towards the NYK session saw the USDJPY gaining some light rises taking the market to the 108.90 areas for a few hours before breaking through to the 109.20 areas and then dropping back again, with Trump siding with democrats on debt ceiling the USD saw a reaction and the market quickly moved to the 109.35 areas before slipping back a little into the close.
- AUD: Oz rose from the opening around the 0.7995 areas to push to the 0.8020 levels before dropping back on the GDP numbers in line with expectations and better than the previous month, the market slipped slowly lower through the balance of the session moving into the grey hour holding the 0.7980 areas and holding through deep into the London morning, the move through to the NYK session saw the market slipping back a little to test the 0.7865 areas before rising quickly once the ISM numbers were released rising quickly to the 80 cent levels again and eventually pushing through to challenge the 0.8015 areas before ranging around the 80 cent areas to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Labour Cash Earnings Y/Y Jul A -0.30% | C 0.50% | P -0.40%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q2 A 0.80% | C 0.80% | P 0.30%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Factory Orders M/M Jul A -0.70% | C 0.20% | P 1.00% | R 0.90%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Retail PMI Aug A 50.8 | P 51
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Labour Productivity Q/Q Q2 -0.10% | C 0.90% | P 1.40% | R 1.30%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â International Merchandise Trade (CAD) Jul A -3.0B | C -3.8B | P -3.6B | R -3.8B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance Jul A -43.7B | C -44.6B | P -43.6B | R -43.5B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â US Services PMI Aug (F) A 56 | C 56.9 | P 56.9
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoC Rate Decision A 1.00% | C 0.75% | P 0.75%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Services/Non-Manufacturing Composite Aug A 55.3 | C 55.5 | P 53.9
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Federal Reserve Beige Book
Good Luck,
Andy
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