Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 108.455 | EURUSD 1.20229 | AUDUSD 0.80467 | NZDUSD 0.72162 | USDCAD 1.2117 | USDCHF 0.95053 | GBPUSD 1.31022 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20899 | 1.20178
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 108.484 | 107.81
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.31390 | 1.3094
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.95087 | 0.94388
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.81162 | 0.80433
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.21349 | 1.20646
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.73236 | 0.72276
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.14330 | 1.13954
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.92025 | 0.9175
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 130.660 | 130.146
For today
- EUR: A quiet steady day escalated quickly as USD support levels melted under the pressure, first with the Euro quickly pushing through the 1.2050 areas and weak stops rising to above the 1.2080 levels before stalling and drifting just a little lower, the market drifted for a period before heading into the grey hour again pushing the highs. With the move through the 1.2000 areas the market technically now opens to the Topside to move to at least the 1.2200 areas with limited impediment, minor offers around the level are likely to give way to further stops and congestion only really starts to thicken, a push through the level will see sentimental values taking over and likely commentary from the ECB on the strong Euro, Downside bids likely into the 1.2000 level to be weak and stops through the 1.1980 areas and the potential for a deeper move into weak bids with 1.1900 areas likely to be minor support.
- GBP: With plenty of commentary from the US late in NYK the market pushed from the opening just below the 1.3100 areas to hold for a period into the 1.3110 areas, weak stops were quickly triggers on a break through yesterday’s highs and the run saw the market initially testing to the 1.3140 areas with offers holding the market before moving into the grey hour and a test to 1.3150. Topside offers for the moment into the 1.3150 area with likely weak stops through the level and the market likely to challenge the 1.3200 level quickly, some congestive offers from there into the 1.3250 areas are possibly going to slow the market however a strong push through the level technically opens up a challenge to the 1.3430-40 areas for the medium term with sentimental levels dominating the market and open to the bottom end of the Brexit vote day. Downside bids likely to be weak all the way through to the 1.3000 areas, with possibly some light bids beginning to build in the area and congestion on a move through the level, with 1.2905 the stronger level for the moment and as we know that has been penetrated several times in both directions however, stop wise likely weak stops on a move back through each sentimental area.
- JPY: USDJPY continued the same decline initially a drift from the 108.50 areas and slowly slipping through to range around the 108.20 level and into the grey hour where the market crashed through the support. USDJPY having given up at the 108.00 level now sees weaker bids into the 107.50 areas and just below the current lows and then limited congestion to the range from the end of last year with stronger bids into the 106.00 areas likely to be the best support a push through the level will likely see stronger stops appearing and the market opening to another similar drop if the momentum is right, Topside offers are now light all the way through to the 110.00 areas, with weak stops on a move through the 108.00 areas likely to cause a small short squeeze as the market sees a knee jerk reaction to the move higher whether the market will be able to sustain a move higher remains to be seen.
- AUD: A weaker USD and the market saw the market move slowly higher through to mid-session when the USD broke lower the Oz pushes quickly through the 0.8060 areas and traded quickly with some light stops to the 0.8090 areas, the market continued to rise however, at a slower rate grinding through the 0.8110 areas before running into further offers into the 0.8120 level and unable to break any further for the moment. Topside offers into the 0.8140-60 areas are likely to be limited with better offers likely to appear just before the 82 cent areas with congestive offers dating back to spring of 2015, possible strong stops on a move through the 0.8230 areas leaves the market vulnerable then to the 83 cent level where one would suspect some option plays in the area and stronger offers. Downside bids light back through the 80 cent areas with weak stops on a move through the 0.7980 area and some bids in the mix to slow the market from a deeper move into the 0.7960-40 areas.
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Overnight News                                                                 Â
USD:
Low inflation gives Fed pause on raising rates again this year – WSJ
US unsure if N. Korea can be deterred Trump administration official RTRs
US is still assessing latest N. Korea Nuclear test but has no information to contradict N. Korean claim of HBomb Trump administration official
US sees grave risk that N. Korea might miscalculate, Pyongyang should not underestimate US will protect itself and allies Trump Administration official
White House is said to be considering at least six for Fed Chair
Fed’s Mester says comfortable raising rates again this year
Trump’s debt ceiling deal is a slap in the face to conservative base
- Korea may already be able to launch a nuclear attack on the US
Fed’s George says it’s time to continue with Fed rate hikes
Dudley: Disasters tend to be supportive for economic growth
Dudley: Hurricanes could lead to bit more inflation
GBP:
Senior Tories sign letter urging Theresa May to deliver hard Brexit
EUR:
German IFO survey adds to mixed signals on future growth path
German’s Ifo head warns of return of Euro crisis
AUD:
Australia July Home loan approvals rise 2.9% MoM est 1%
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (USD) Aug A 42.0B | C 48.6B | P 46.7B
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (CNY) Aug A 287B | 337B | P 321B
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Activity Q2 A 3.90% | P 2.80% | R 3.10%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q2 (F) A 0.60% | C 0.70% | P 1.00%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Deflator Y/Y Q2 (F) A -0.40% | C -0.40% | P -0.40%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Current Account (JPY) Jul A 2.03T | C 1.65T | P 1.52T
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Bank Lending incl Trusts Y/Y Aug A 3.20% | C 3.30% | P 3.30%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Home Loans Jul A 2.90% | C 1.00% | P 0.50% | R 1.20%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Eco Watchers Survey Current Aug A 49.7 | C 49.5 | P 49.7
05:45Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Aug C 3.20% | P 3.20%
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Trade Balance (EUR) Jul C 21.5B | P 21.2B
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Jul C 0.20% | P 0.50%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Y/Y Jul C 0.30% | P 0.30%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Production M/M Jul C 0.30% | P 0.00%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Production Y/Y Jul C 1.70% | P 0.60%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction Output M/M Jul C -0.30% | P -0.10%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Jul C -12.1B | P -12.7B
12:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â NIESR GDP Estimate Aug P 0.20%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Capacity Utilization Rate Q2 C 85.00% | P 83.30%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net Change in Employment Aug C 15.0K | P 10.9K
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Aug C 6.30% | P 6.30%
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Inventories Jul (F) C 0.40% | P 0.40%
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A quiet Asian session saw the market running along the 1.1920 areas in a tight range through to the grey hours, from early European time the market started a steady climb through to the 1.1940 areas with London continuing to buy through to the NYK session to push up against the resistive 1.1980 areas and trading in that area, the move into the NYK session saw a strong jobless claims number with the USD collapsing, initially the focus was on the Non-Farm numbers coming in stronger however, the jobless number saw the market lift off the 1.1940 dip and touch quickly through to the 1.2060 area before finding some offers, the range through to the close was ever dwindling finishing the day around the 1.2020 levels.
- GBP: Opening around the 1.3045 areas the market moved to test to the 1.3060 level before holding just below the 1.3050 areas through to the grey hour, light selling in the grey hour saw the market test the 1.3030 levels repeatedly before rising slowly through to the 1.3070 areas, pausing briefly the ECB decision remained unchanged and the USD came under further pressure, allowing the Cable to rise through the 1.3100 areas with a struggle into the NYK session, the market held in a reasonably tight range through to the close holding towards the highs.
- JPY: The USDJPY slipped steadily through most of the day with the market opening around the 109.20 level and remaining for the most part in a tight declining range, moving through the 109.00 levels into the London session and into the NYK level just above the 108.80 areas, the fall back on N. Korea news, with continuing Euro QE and an increase of the debt ceiling however, safe haven flows were probably more related and the move to the close in London saw the market dropping towards the 108.00 levels before bouncing back to the 108.50 areas.
- AUD: The Asian session saw the market rising through to the 0.8020 areas before the release of poor retail sales however, while the market dropped back to the grey hour testing the 0.7980 areas, London were steady buyers with USD weakness continuing through the day and a strengthening JPY, the Oz moved up into the NYK session to the 0.8040 level however, from there the market struggled for impetus facing some strong offers through to the close and it was unable to move through the 0.8050 area.
Yesterday’s premiership results
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Jul A 0.00% | C 0.20% | P 0.30% | R 0.20%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (AUD) Jul A 0.46B | C 0.95B | P 0.86B | R 0.89B
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Leading Index Jul (P) A 105.0 | C 105.1 | P 105.9 | R 105.7
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Industrial Production M/M Jul A 0.00% | C 0.60% | P -1.10%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Foreign Currency Reserves Aug A 717B | P 714B | R 715B
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Rate Decision A 0.00% | C 0.00% | P 0.00%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Press Conference
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits M/M Jul A -3.50% | C -1.00% | P 2.50%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (SEP 02) A 298K | C 242K | P 236K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Non-Farm Productivity Q2 (F) A 1.50% | C 1.20% | P 0.90%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unit Labour Costs Q2 (F) A 0.20% | P 0.40% | P 0.60%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Ivey PMI Aug A 56.3 | C 61.3 | P 60
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A 65B | C 63B | P 30B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A 4.6M | C 4.1M | P -5.4M
Good Luck,
Andy
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