Untitled

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 107.844 | EURUSD 1.20363 | AUDUSD 0.80534 | NZDUSD 0.72609 | USDCAD 1.21565 | USDCHF 0.94422 | GBPUSD 1.31966 |

 

LMAX Ranges 6am London time

Highs    Lows

EURUSD               1.20221 | 1.1999

USDJPY                 108.565 | 108.168

GBPUSD               1.31978 | 1.31683

AUDUSD              0.80553 | 0.8033

USDCHF               0.95061 | 0.94659

USDCAD               1.21616 | 1.21384

NZDUSD               0.72543 | 0.72251

EURGBP               0.91179 | 0.91041

EURCHF                1.14092 | 1.1379

EURJPY                 130.365 | 129996

For today

• EUR: It was suggested that instead of Rhetoric this weekend in N. Korea they had a party and this was the catalyst for the USD strength from the opening with the Euro opening around the 1.2020 level some 10 pips lower from Friday, and the opening was the high with the market sliding to the 1.2010 areas before dipping quickly to the 1.2000 level and recovering from that low to hold the 1.2010 areas into the grey hour, Topside offers through the 1.2050 level with stronger offers building into the 1.2100 areas, a move through the 1.2120 areas is likely to see weak stops and the market opening to the 1.2200 areas where stronger offers are possible. Weak bids into the 1.2000 levels with some congestion on a move through to the 1.1980 areas before weak stops appear na the market opens to the 1.1940 stronger levels,
• GBP: Opening just below the 1.3190 areas the market remained around the level into the Tokyo session before the market slowly drifted to trade around the 1.3180 areas edging slowly below the level into the grey hour, Topside offers into the 1.3220 level with possible weak stops beyond the level if the market can break cleanly through, with limited congestion dating back to the Brexit voting day, a move through to the 1.3400 areas is likely to be dominated by sentimental levels only and fundamental news out of Brexit negotiations which as we have seen are not going well, downside bids light back through the 1.3100 level with weak stops on a move through the level and the market quickly opening for a push through the stronger bids into the 1.3050 levels however, with congestion in the area the move through to the 1.3000 level is likely to be a little stronger still and the market will likely see those bids continuing through into the 1.2950 areas before stronger stops start appearing.
• JPY: Pre-market trading in the interbank saw the USDJPY quickly test to the 108.50 level before settling back to the 108.10 areas for the opening, early trading saw the USDJPY rising again to the 108.50 level and ranging in to the 108.20-50 level through to deeper into the session when the market settled, Nothing special to the downside until the market moves into the 107.50 areas where stronger bids are likely to extend down to the 107.00 levels with a push through the congestive bids into that level strong stops are likely to appear for a move through to the 106.00-105.80 level and better bids making a limited appearance. Topside offers are likely to be weak through the 109.00 levels with some congestive offers appearing on a push through the level, a solid push through the 109.50 areas will likely see some weak stops and the market quickly moving to fill the gap on the charts and a test to the 110.00 areas with the market then moving into a tighter and more resistant levels with strong offers likely to continue building into the 110.80 areas.
• AUD: Oz the exception to the rule opening close to the closing levels the Oz drifted slowly through the 0.8050 areas and holding around the level through to deeper into the Tokyo session before dipping through into the 0.8030’s before recovering to hold around the 0.8050 level through into the grey hour. Topside offers light through the 81 cent level with increasing offers through to the 0.8120 level before a little opening appears on a move through the level however, the approach to the 82 cent level is likely to see stronger offers appearing firstly through the 0.8150 area and then from there to the 0.8180 level increasing in size again with possible option barriers into the 82 cent level, however, with very little data today the market is likely to struggle for impetus. Downside bids light into the 80 cent level with possible stops waiting around the 0.7980 areas and the market opening to the 0.7940 level before stronger bids appear, a push through the level will see some congestion however, for today any test through the level is likely to see weakness opening for a deeper move.

Overnight News

NZD:

New Zealand retail card spending fell for fourth month in August

NZ economists lower forecast for 2017-18 inflation to 1.1% vs. 1.5%

KRW:

1. Korea warns US will pay due price for spearheading UN sanctions
2. Korea on reckless path says S. Korean Foreign minister Kang

Kang: Price of N. Korea’s provocations will be economic hardship

GBP:

Blocking EU repeal bill is vote for chaotic Brexit, Davis warns lawmakers

USD:

Hurricane Irma hits Florida however; Landfall saw the hurricane declassed to a category 2.

AUD:

Ozzie banks sitting on A$500B of liar loans – UBS

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

JPY         Machine Orders M/M Jul A 8.00% | C 4.10% | P -1.90%

JPY         Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Aug A 4.00% | C 4.10% | P 4.00%

JPY         Tertiary Industry Index M/M Jul A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.00% | R -0.20%

06:00     JPY         Machine Tool Orders Y/Y Aug (P) P 28.00%

12:15     CAD       Housing Starts Aug C 220.0K | P 222.3K

Weekend News

CNY:

PBoC is said to remove reserve requirement on FX Forward trading

Chinese regulators ordered a halt to all virtual currency trading platforms in the country

USD:

Florida’s west coast is in Irma’s crosshairs as track shifts

EUR:

The secession challenge: testing the limits of legal and political

Tsipras: IMF must decide whether it will be in Greek bailout

Eurozone’s 4 largest economies are agreed on Digital tax BFM

NOK:

Norwegians to vote in final day of cliff-hanger election for parliament

Harry Hindsight

• EUR: The USD held for a few hours into the Asian session rising from the opening around the 1.2020 areas to above the 1.2035 level, with the release of the CNY numbers, while the numbers had little relationship to the USD in a negative manner the market reacted and the whole market saw key levels breaking which initiated further USD weakness with the Euro moving quickly to the 1.2050 area and triggering weak stops and a quick rise to the 1.2090 level with the market then ranging around the 1.2070 areas into the grey hour, the move into the grey hour saw the market test the highs again and only once it moved into the London session fully did the pressure reduce and the market tested back through the 1.2050 levels to range through to the NYK session between there and the 1.2070 level, NYK were steady sellers from the opening with the market moving back to the opening levels and ranging through to the close around the 1.2030 areas.
• GBP: Cable rose from the opening just below the 1.3100 levels and rose to the 1.3110 areas into the Tokyo session before breaking higher and testing to the 1.3150 levels into the grey hour, with UK production numbers increasing in July the Cable rallied fairly steadily through to the 1.3200 level with limited resistance the market saw the market test through the 1.3220 level before stalling into the NYK session and ranging through to the close around the 1.3200 areas.
• JPY: USDJPY held through to mid-session testing a little higher to the 108.50 areas before dropping back into the CNY numbers, the move through to the grey hour saw the USDJPY dropping back through the 108.00 areas and triggering weak stops on a move through to the 107.60 areas where it held for a few hours into the London session, the drop saw the market dipping through the 107.50 levels to test to the 107.30 areas before starting to recover into the NYK session with a minor squeeze back to the 108.00 level before holding through to the close around the 107.80 areas.
• AUD: The Oz saw a steady rise through the Asian session before moving quickly higher from the 0.8070 areas to test the 81 cent level into the later part of Tokyo testing into the grey hour pushing the 0.8120 level before drifting back a little as profit taking took over and the market drifted between the 0.8080-0.8100 levels, the move through into the NYK session saw the market again testing above the 81 cent levels however, the market struggled and started a steady decline through to the end of London testing the 0.8060 areas and holding the level through to the last hour testing back to the 0.8050 level into the close.

Yesterday’s premiership results

NZD       Manufacturing Activity Q2 A 3.90% | P 2.80% | R 3.10%

JPY         GDP Q/Q Q2 (F) A 0.60% | C 0.70% | P 1.00%

JPY         GDP Deflator Y/Y Q2 (F) A -0.40% | C -0.40% | P -0.40%

JPY         Current Account (JPY) Jul A 2.03T | C 1.65T | P 1.52T

JPY         Bank Lending incl Trusts Y/Y Aug A 3.20% | C 3.30% | P 3.30%

AUD       Home Loans Jul A 2.90% | C 1.00% | P 0.50% | R 1.20%

CNY        Trade Balance (USD) Aug A 42.0B | C 48.6B | P 46.7B

CNY        Trade Balance (CNY) Aug A 287B | C 337B | P 321B

JPY         Eco Watchers Survey Current Aug A 49.7 | C 49.5 | P 49.7

CHF        Unemployment Rate Aug A 3.20% | C 3.20% | P 3.20%

EUR        German Trade Balance (EUR) Jul A 19.5B | C 21.5B | P 21.2B

GBP       Industrial Production M/M Jul A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.50%

GBP       Industrial Production Y/Y Jul A 0.40% | C 0.30% | P 0.30%

GBP       Manufacturing Production M/M Jul A 0.50% | C 0.30% | P 0.00%

GBP       Manufacturing Production Y/Y Jul A 1.90% | C 1.70% | P 0.60%

GBP       Construction Output M/M Jul A -0.90% | C -0.30% | P -0.10%

GBP       Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Jul A -11.6B | C -12.1B | P -12.7B

GBP       NIESR GDP Estimate Aug A 0.40% | P 0.20%

CAD       Capacity Utilization Rate Q2 A 85.00% | C 85.00% | P 83.30%

CAD       Net Change in Employment Aug A 22.2K | C 15.0K | P 10.9K

CAD       Unemployment Rate Aug A 6.20% | C 6.30% | P 6.30%

USD       Wholesale Inventories Jul (F) A 0.60% | C 0.40% | P 0.40%

Stay lucky

Andy

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.

Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.

If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.