Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 110.491 | EURUSD 1.18856 | AUDUSD 0.7986 | NZDUSD 0.72257 | USDCAD 1.21736 | USDCHF 0.96428 | GBPUSD 1.32093 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.18943 | 1.18705
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 110.735 | 110.413
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.32162 | 1.31994
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.96526 | 0.96285
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.80160 | 0.7973
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.21825 | 1.21600
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72625 | 0.72429
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.14668 | 1.1446
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.90017 | 0.89901
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 131.491 | 131.145
For today
- EUR: Another quiet session with the market drifting off the highs just above the 1.1890 areas to run along the 1.1970 areas, Topside offers into the 1.1950 areas with stronger offers likely to move into the 1.2000 areas, a push through the level will likely see weak stops appearing and the market seeing light congestive offers increasing into stronger offers the closer the market moves towards the 1.2080 areas. Downside bids into the current areas with a push through the 1.1860-40 levels likely to open up a test of the 1.1800 areas with stronger bids and then congestive bids likely through the level and continuing through to the 1.1750 areas.
- GBP: A slow move through the Asian session with Cable opening just below the 1.3210 and unable to move beyond the 1.3220 level and then drifting to the 1.3200 areas to hold through to the grey hour, Topside offers light all the way through to the 1.3300-20 areas with possible weak stops on a push through the highs from yesterday with sentimental offers likely through to the 1.3400-40 areas where offers are likely to be a little stronger and the base of the Brexit day drop, downside bids in the current area, a drop through the 1.3180 areas will likely see some weak stops however, they are likely to be light with possibly stronger bids into the 1.3150 areas with possibly stronger stops through that level and the market then opening to a larger dip back to the 1.30 handle. All eyes on the MPC today however, the possibility of a rate hike remain slim and if it were to occur would be a knee jerk reaction to yesterday’s inflationary numbers however, the rate does seem to be creeping higher, an increase though would be a double edged sword increasing debt repayments while limiting disposable income further.
- JPY: Opening quietly around the 110.50 areas the market moved into Tokyo and the release of the Oz employment numbers saw the USDJPY rising through to the 110.70 levels as AUDJPY cross buying moved through the market, once the data was absorbed the USDJPY then returned to its previous levels with a couple of minor spikes to the 110.40 area the market continued to hold 110.50 through to the grey hour, Topside offers into the 110.70-111.00 areas are likely to be fairly strong with stops likely on a move through the level however, once cleared the market then runs into some minor congestion on a move through to the 111.50 areas with stronger offers waiting beyond and into the next big figure. Downside bids light back through the 110.00 areas with weak stops on a strong move through the 109.70 area however, possible strong congestion between the 109.60-30 level will likely slow the market depending on why its dipping with the market only opening up for further falls if it can clear those levels with weakness into the 109.00 areas.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7985 areas the market drifted through to the Oz numbers testing the 0.7975 areas, better employment numbers saw the market gap higher from the lows to push quickly back above the 80 cent areas before coming to a halt around the 0.8015 levels and dipping quickly back as the market reread the numbers for any hidden bits in the equation, the market then held through to the grey hour around the 0.8005 areas in slow trading, Topside offers through the 0.8040 level and likely to be congestive into the 0.8060 before the market opens for another test above the 81 cent level which will likely see stronger offers around and through the level with weak stops likely the market could see a struggle once those are exhausted with better offers likely into the 0.8140-60 areas. Downside bids into the 0.7960 levels will likely have weak stops appearing on a move through the 0.7940 areas with some congestion then to the 79 cent areas however, through this level the market is likely to open up to the stronger bids into the 0.7840 areas with weakness before getting there.
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Overnight News                                                                 Â
CNY:
Weaker China data across the board
China home sales grow at slowest pace in almost 3 yrs on curbs
KRW:
- Korea threatens to use nuclear bomb to sink Japan KCNA
NBC Politics: N. Korea observed moving mobile missile launcher
Satellite imagery suggests N. Korea is preparing another nuclear test
USD:
Trump had constructive working dinner with Democratic leaders Schumer and Pelosi White house
Trump and democratic leaders talked about tax reform border security immigration status for so called dreamers, infrastructure and trade official
Trump administration looks forward to continuing these conversations with Democratic and republican leaders
The White House has readied an executive order that would stop trade with any country doing business with N. Korea
NZD:
Consumer confidence rises to 3 yr high ANZ
NZ MP admits teaching Chinese spies, MP Jian Yang
NZ Labour changes stance on tax proposals ahead of election
GBP:
BoE keeping eye on Brexit, consumer lending for stability risks
London house prices record biggest fall since 2008: rics
EUR:
ECB’s Praet says its too soon to claim victory on inflation
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RICS House Price Balance Aug A 6.00% | C 0.00% | P 1.00%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Inflation Expectation Sep A 3.80% | P 4.20%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Change Aug A 54.2K | C 19.2K | P 27.9K | R 29.3K
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Aug A 5.60% | C 5.60% | P 5.60%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Y/Y Aug A 10.10% | C 10.50% | P 10.40%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD Y/Y Aug A 7.80% | C 8.20% | P 8.30%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Y/Y Aug A 6.00% | C 6.60% | P 6.40%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Jul (F) A -0.80% | C -0.80% | P -0.80%
07:30Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SNB Sight Deposit Interest Rate C -0.75% | P -0.75%
07:30Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SNB 3-Month Libor Upper Target Range C -0.25% | P -0.25%
07:30Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SNB 3-Month Libor Lower Target Range C -1.25% | P -1.25%
11:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Rate Decision C 0.25% | P 0.25%
11:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Asset Purchase Target Sep C 435B | P 435B
11:00    GBP      MPC Official Bank Rate Votes C 2–0—7 | P 2–0–6
11:00    GBP      MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes C 0–0—9 | P 0–0–8
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Housing Price Index M/M Jul C 0.30% | P 0.20%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (SEP 09) C 300K | P 298K
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Aug C 0.30% | P 0.10%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Aug C 1.80% | P 1.70%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core M/M Aug C 0.20% | P 0.10%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core Y/Y Aug C 1.60% | P 1.70%
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P 65B
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A quiet move through to the NYK session with the market opening around the 1.1970 levels and holding that level deep into the Tokyo session before lifting to test the 1.1990 areas, the market then ranged through to the NYK session holding a tight 1.1970-90 range, weaker PPI numbers saw the USD rallying for some reason and with some talk of agreement on Tax the market saw some buying of the USD from the opening with the Euro dropping back through the 1.1950 levels and triggering weak stops which only slowed as the market moved towards the 1.1900 areas, eventually pushing through to test the 1.1880 levels before holding and drifting to a close.
- GBP: Opening around the 1.3290 levels the market moved steadily through the 1.3300 levels trading in a narrow 1.3300-10 areas through into the London session and testing through to the 1.3330 level, another drop in jobless numbers to levels not seen since the 1970’s saw the Cable dropping back with weak stops triggered on the dip below the 1.3300 areas and dipping to the 1.3280 before slowing its descent but not its direction slipping to the 1.3250 areas, the market rose a little through to the 1.3290 levels as the market moved through to the NYK session before dropping back steadily through to hold around the 1.3200 areas with a limited dip to the 1.3180 areas before holding above the 1.3200 area.
- JPY: USDJPY ranged in a reasonably tight range through the Asian session, opening around the 110.15 areas the market moved into the Tokyo session testing to the 110.30 levels before slipping steadily back to the 110.00 level into mid-session and holding through to the grey hour, the move into the London session saw the low extended to the 109.90’s basing through to the NYK session ranging quietly, NYK were quick buyers and the market moved through to the 110.70 levels and into stronger offers which held the market through to the close in London with light selling into the close and the market then trading around the 110.60 to the close in quiet trading.
- AUD: A quiet range through to the NYK session with the Oz rising slowly from the opening 0.8020 areas to test to the 0.8045 levels through London, NYK saw the USD rallying and the Oz dropped steadily through to the London close setting lows into the 0.7970 areas before ranging to the close between that low and the 0.7985 areas.
Yesterday’s premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â BSI Large Manufacturing Q/Q Q3 A 9.4 | C -2.8 | P -2.9
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Domestic CGPI M/M Aug A 0.00% | C 0.10% | P 0.30%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Consumer Confidence Sep A 2.50% | P -1.20%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI M/M Aug (F) A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI Y/Y Aug (F) A 1.80% | C 1.80% | P 1.80%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Producer & Import Prices M/M Aug A 0.30% | C 0.20% | P 0.00%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Producer & Import Prices Y/Y Aug A 0.60% | C 0.40% | P -0.10%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Jobless Claims Change Aug A -2.8K | C 0.6K | P -4.2K
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Claimant Count Rate Aug A 2.30% | P 2.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â ILO Unemployment Rate 3M Jul A 4.30% | C 4.40% | P 4.40%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y Jul A 2.10% | C 2.30% | P 2.10%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Jul A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P -0.60%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Employment Q/Q Q2 A 0.40% | C 0.30% | P 0.40% | R 0.50%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI M/M Aug A 0.20% | C 0.30% | P -0.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Y/Y Aug A 2.40% | C 2.50% | P 1.90%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core M/M Aug A 0.10% | C 0.20% | R -0.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core Y/Y Aug A 2.00% | C 2.10% | P 1.80%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A 5.9M | C 4.1M | P 4.6M
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Monthly Budget Statement Aug A -107.7B | C -124.3B | P -42.9B
Good Luck,
Andy
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