Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 111.569 | EURUSD 1.1955 | AUDUSD 0.79606 | NZDUSD 0.7255 | USDCAD 1.22926 | USDCHF 0.96178 | GBPUSD 1.34972 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.19800 | 1.19526
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 111.678 | 111.373
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.35392 | 1.34997
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.96207 | 0.96053
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.79952 | 0.79585
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.23084 | 1.22734
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72839 | 0.72577
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.15103 | 1.14969
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.88566 | 0.88458
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 133.758 | 133.237
For today
- EUR: Holding the closing levels the market ran from the 1.1950 level in a steady climb higher pushing through to the 1.1980 areas into the grey hour, with limited volume. Topside offers into the 1.2000 levels with congestion on a move through the level and possible weak stops however, stronger offers are likely to appear on a move through to the 1.2050 areas with those offers likely to increase towards the 1.2080-1.2100 area, strong stops on a move through that level is likely to open up a further strong gain. Downside bids into the 1.1900 areas level with congestion on a move through to the 1.1880 areas and continuing into the 1.1850 level, the market then opens to the stronger 1.1800 level.
- GBP: Cable made early gain pushing from just below the 1.3500 level through into early Tokyo holding the 1.3520 areas, the market then ranged deep into the session around the highs before finally pushing through to the 1.3540 level for the move into the grey hour, Topside offers light through the 1.3550 level and only really becoming more resistant as it tests through the 1.3600 level with stops possible on a strong break of the 1.3620 areas opening up further gains with very little but sentimental levels in the way until the 1.3900-1.4000 levels. Downside bids light through to the 1.3300 area with possible light bids through to that level, once there the bids may be a little bit stronger however; the risk for further declines is likely with no sight of congestion until 1.3200.
- JPY: The USDJPY opened around the 111.55 areas and struggled through the session dipping through the 111.40 level at one point however, the market broadly remained in the 111.40-60 areas until deep in the session and a run to the grey hour saw the market pushing beyond the 111.70 areas. Topside offers through the 111.80 areas and likely to increase into the 112.00 level, weak stops on a push through the 112.20 areas is likely to open the topside for a run to the 113.00 areas with limited congestion through the level and possible weak stops on a push through the 113.30 areas. Downside bids light through the 111.00 areas with weak stops on a move through the 110.80 areas and opening up another dip to the 110.00 level, congestion in the area however, the market has only just moved away from the level and could be suspect with stronger bids only on a move through to the 109.00 areas.
- AUD: The Oz opened quietly with the RBA minutes to be released, the market moved into the Tokyo session holding the 0.7960 opening levels before moving into the Tokyo session and seeing some AUDJPY cross buying moving through to help the market higher for the release, generally there was little change in the report with comments remaining neutral for the most part, the odd addition saw the market move through to the 0.7990 areas before falling back again as talk of housing bubble moved through and the general tone remained the same as previous, the market tested back towards the opening and held from there through to late in the session and as with the USDJPY started a limited move back to the 0.7980 areas with further cross buying. Topside offers light through the 0.8000 level with increasing offers likely into the 0.8040-60 areas, even through the level the market is likely to see increasing offers towards the 0.8080-0.8100 area with a possibility of light option barriers and more sentimental offers protecting the way, downside bids from the current 0.7960 areas and likely to continue into the 0.7940 area similar to yesterday’s plays, a push through the level will likely see some weak stops however, stronger bids through the 79 cent level are likely to slow any move lower without some significant fundamental news.
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Overnight News                                                                 Â
JPY:
Abe is said to call snap election as soon as Sept 25 Sankei
NZD:
NZ consumer confidence eases on slower housing market Wespac
GBP:
Speech by Mark Carney
MC: says some BoE tightening may be needed in coming months
MC: says any BoE rate hikes will be limited and gradual
MC: says Brexit will reduce supply capacity of the economy
MC: says Brexit will temporarily reduce openness of UK
MC: says Brexit has inflationary impact via Labour market and price of Sterling
MC: says Spare capacity absorbed a bit faster than anticipated
MC: says Brexit may have deflationary impact via trade channel
MC: says UK GDP to underperform G7 average until mid-2018
MC: says there are still considerable risks to outlook
USD:
Hurricane Maria intensifies into Category 4
Mattis leaves the door open to the military option in N. Korea
CAD:
BoC tracking impact of stronger dollar, Lane says
USD/CNY:
China increases US treasury holdings to almost one year high
AUD:
Australia jobs pick-up to continue, but leave wages behind RBA
RBA Minutes, need to balance risks of high household debt against low inflation
RBA Minutes, judged steady policy consistent with growth and inflation targets
RBA further rise in A$ would result in slower pick-up in growth, inflation
RBA growth in China had been stronger than expected, high debt still a threat
RBA discussed China impact on iron ore, expected prices to fall as new supply came on stream
RBA labour market still has spare capacity, wage growth to remain low for some time
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Consumer Confidence Q3 A 112.4| P 113.4
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â House Price Index Q/Q Q2 A 1.90% | C 1.30% | P 2.20%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBA Meeting Minutes Sep
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Jul C 22.3B | P 21.2B
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Sep C 12 | P 10
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German ZEW (Current Situation) Sep C 86.3 | P 86.7
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Sep C 32.4 | P 29.3
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Shipments M/M Jul C -0.70% | P -1.80%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Current Account Balance (USD) Q2 C -113B | P -117B
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Aug C 1.18M | P 1.16M
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits Aug C 1.22M | P 1.23M
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Import Price Index M/M Aug C 0.40% | P 0.10%
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A choppy day over all with the market for the most part trading around the 1.1950 levels, Asia opened a little weaker moving from the 1.1930 areas and moving to fill the gap on the charts to test the 1.1950 areas moving into the Tokyo bank holiday drifting back a little before rising to test to the 1.1955 area and holding around the 1.1950 level into the London session, CPI numbers for the Eurozone were unchanged and the market dropped quickly as early buyers of the USD moved in taking the Euro to the 1.1915 levels, the move back was a slow grind pushing through to the 1.1950 areas again and holding into early NYK before making the high of the day through to the 1.1970 areas, a quiet drift with a narrowing range saw the market holding the 1.1950 areas again before dropping on end of London selling taking the market towards the lows and repeating the slow grind back to the 1.1950 areas.
- GBP: Opening weaker than Fridays close the Cable moved back to fill the gap from the 1.3560 areas to test the 1.3590 level for the move into the Tokyo session, ranging around the 1.3580 areas in early trading the market slowly pushed to the 1.3600 level and held through to the grey hour. London opening saw a quick move through to the 1.3620 level before dropping back again as the UK government’s internal woes with reported discussions between PM May and Foreign secretary Johnson the talk of the media. Add to which the USD buying that moved in and the market was quickly holding around the 1.3550 areas for the drift through to the NYK session, initially Cable rose a little to the 1.3570 level before finding fresh selling as the said comments re-entered the media realm as speculation and comments continued, the Cable dropped quickly to the 1.3500 areas and once through the level the market hit the 1.3470 level quickly before finding some steady support to trade back to the 1.3500 levels for the close.
- JPY: Opening a little stronger around the 111.10 areas and although initially testing the figure level the market eventually moved a little higher into the Tokyo holiday pushing to the 111.20 and running along that level through to the London session, London took the market a little higher however, volumes were limited and moving into the NYK session saw the market back to the 111.20 levels before pushing slowly higher through to make the highs late in the session around the 111.60 area and closing just short of that level.
- AUD: With Tokyo out for the day the Oz moved steadily up to the 0.8035 level in early trading before slipping slowly lower through the balance of the day, the market moved into the grey hour not far from the highs with early London sending the market back to the opening levels, moving through into the NYK session saw the market trading through the figure level and limited support for the market as the market ran to the London close testing the 0.7950 areas testing through late in the session the market eventually pushed to a close off those levels.
Yesterday’s premiership results
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Rightmove House Prices M/M Sep A -1.20% | P -0.90%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI M/M Aug A 0.30% | C 0.30% | P -0.50%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Y/Y Aug (F) A 1.50% | C 1.50% | P 1.30%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI – Core Y/Y Aug (F) A 1.20% | C 1.20% | P 1.20%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â International Securities Transactions (CAD) Jul A 23.95B | C 4.46B | P -0.92B | R -0.86B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAHB Housing Market Index Sep A 64 | C 67 | P 68
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net Long-term TIC Flows Jul A 1.3B | C 42.3B | P 34.4B
Good Luck,
Andy
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