Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 111.601 | EURUSD 1.19945 | AUDUSD 0.80083 | NZDUSD 0.73144 | USDCAD 1.22938 | USDCHF 0.96262 | GBPUSD 1.35107 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20196 | 1.19865
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 111.647 | 111.434
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.35316 | 1.35098
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.96346 | 0.96043
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.80235 | 0.79995
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.23041 | 1.22761
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.73429 | 0.73037
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.15512 | 1.15345
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.88871 | 0.88661
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 134.026 | 133.737
For today
- EUR: A quiet session saw the market move quietly through into the Tokyo session testing slightly through the 1.2000 areas before slipping a little lower and testing the 1.1990 areas before moving higher as light USD weakness saw the Euro test to the 1.2020 areas before drifting through the balance of the session, with good volumes through the rally and limited through the balance of the session, Topside offers continue through the 1.2020 with possible weak stops likely but possibly balanced with stronger offers into the 1.2040 areas, and possibly into the 1.2060 level, through that level the market is likely to increase in strength for the run to the 1.2100 and possibly strong stops through the level. Downside bids light through the 1.1990 areas with possible light congestion through to the 1.1960 levels
- GBP: Cable opened a little weaker before moving off the lows just through the 1.3500 levels in what appeared to be some weak selling while the market adjusted to the new day, pushing from the 1.3510 areas the market steadily rose into the Tokyo session testing above the 1.3520 areas, some USD weakness saw the market extend the highs but only to the 1.3530 area before drifting back to hold in the 1.3510-20 areas through to the grey hour, Topside offers light through to the 1.3600 level with likely strong offers on a move through the level and into the 1.3620 areas, with stops likely to appear to open the market to the pre Brexit downside levels around the 1.3840 area. Downside bids are still forming around the 1.3500 areas and the period of consolidation tentative at best with a push lower through the 1.3480 areas likely to see some weak stops with limited bids until the 1.3430-40 areas with weak stops then running into minor congestion and sentimental values the better levels.
- JPY: Early buying into the Tokyo session set the highs into the 111.65 levels however, with FOMC later in the day the market while seeing some volume was limited and the market dropped back through the opening 111.55 area to test weakly into the 111.45 areas to hold the 20 pip range for the bulk of the session, the move towards the grey hour saw light selling moving in and the USDJPY beginning to slip a little, Light bids on the downside into the 111.00 areas with weak stops likely on a slip below the 110.80 areas and opening up a fresh test back to the 110.20-00 areas and stronger bids likely to appear, Topside offers through the 111.80 areas and into the 112.00 level with some congestion likely to appear just beyond before weak stops appear on a push through the 112.30-40 level and the market then opening up to some weak levels through to the 113.00 areas.
- AUD: The Oz initially tested back to the 80 cent level before slowly recovering the lost ground, a weaker Westpac number doing the early damage before sentiment and a weaker USD took over and the Oz slowly recovered and pushed steadily through the 0.8020 areas before holding the level through to the grey hour, topside offers into the 0.8040-60 areas with the market then lightening up a little for the run back to the 81 cent area, a push through these offers will likely see weak stops on a strong test through the 0.8120 areas and the market opening for a fresh test into the stronger offers around the 0.8150 areas, Downside bids light through the 80 cent level again with stronger bids appearing on a push through to the 0.7960-40 areas with possibly larger weak stops then appearing in the market for a strong test to the 79 cent areas however, from there congestion abounds and the downside becomes very limited, notwithstanding FOMC of course.
Â
Overnight News                                                                 Â
MXN:
Peso weakens as anniversary of the 1985 quake sees strong tremors with several buildings collapsing
USD:
Oil declines as bearish US crude inventory report looms BBG
Collapse of iconic Toys ‘R’ Us leads to concerns globally of the power of the internet and retail sales
US Republican senators Corker and Toomey say agreement reached on budget resolution that would allow for tax cuts over 10 year period RTRS
Trump threatens to totally destroy N. Korea at UN while also telling the UN it’s a bloated inefficient organization.
Buffett calls pessimists about US out of their minds
US Fed to announce stimulus drawdown, let rates stand
NZD:
Latest sees the election in NZ almost tied with 41.9 vs. 41.6 to the National party
Magnitude 5.1 quake shakes buildings in Wellington, NZ
CNY:
China’s Yuan decouples from the USD, in sign of official worry
China’s Xi demands strong hands to maintain stability ahead of Congress
EUR:
Merkel’s problem: booming German economy is so 20th Century
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Current Account Balance Q2 A -0.6B | C -0.89B | P 0.24B | R 0.22B
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (JPY) Aug A 0.37T | C 0.41T | P 0.34T | R 0.36T
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Leading Index M/M Aug A -0.10% | P 0.12%
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German PPI M/M Aug C 0.10% | P 0.20%
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German PPI Y/Y Aug C 2.50% | P 2.30%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Aug C 0.20% | P 0.30%
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Existing Home Sales Aug C 5.46M | P 5.44M
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories P 5.9M
18:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â FOMC Rate Decision C 1.25% | P 1.25%
18:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â FOMC Press Conference
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A quiet rise from the opening around the 1.1955 levels pushing only into the 1.1970 through Asia, the move towards the grey hour saw the market pushing towards the 1.1980 areas and breaking on the move into London to test lightly through the 1.2000 areas and unable to push much beyond the level, the move through to the NYK session was the market drifting through to test back to the opening levels before ranging through to the end of NYK around the 1.1980 areas, the run to the end of the day saw the market again testing the 1.2000 levels to run to the close just off the level.
- GBP: Another choppy day with limited range trading for the most part around the 1.3500 level with the market opening just below the 1.3500 level the market moved through the early part of the session pushing to the 1.3520 levels, as the market moved towards the grey hour the market again pushed higher as comments from Trump weakened the USD and Cable pushing to the 1.3550 areas before running into light offerings sufficient to hold the market into mixed European Zew numbers helping EURGBP cross to rise a little and sending Cable back to the 1.3470 level with weak stops before rising back to the opening levels again and ranging weakly around the level into the NYK session, a weaker current account balance saw the market again testing higher through the 1.3530 areas, end of London saw weak longs cutting their positions and the market quickly back to the lows and a steady climb through to the close around the 1.3520 areas.
- JPY: A narrow session with the market centring around the 111.50 areas through to the close, early trading through into the Tokyo saw the market in a very quiet range testing to the 111.40 levels before heading into the late session pushing through the day’s highs and testing to the 1.1165 level before weak stops helped the final push in the grey hour to the 111.85 areas, and the highs for the day, the move through the Asian session saw the USDJPY drifting through the to test the 111.20 areas before finding some support into the NYK option expiry and a steady climb through to test towards the highs again, the move to the close saw the market holding the 111.50-60 areas in limited trading.
- AUD: The Oz saw a steady rise through the day with the market lifting a little around the RBA minutes which were a little more hawkish than previously and the market testing above the 0.7990 areas before dropping back again to the opening 0.7960 level, from there the rally continued in a limited fashion, the move through into the London session saw the market testing the highs and steadily pushing through the level and into the 0.8000 areas for the move into the NYK session, although early NYK pushed the market above the 0.8010 area the market struggled through the balance of the session holding around the 80 cent areas with only one push to the 0.8020 level before holding the 0.8010 areas to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Consumer Confidence Q3 A 112.4 | P 113.4
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â House Price Index Q/Q Q2 A 1.90% | C 1.30% | P 2.20%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBA Meeting Minutes Sep
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Jul A 25.1B | C 22.3B | P 21.2B | R 22.8B
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Sep A 17 | C 12 | P 10
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German ZEW (Current Situation) Sep A 87.9 | C 86.3 | P 86.7
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Sep A 31.7 | C 32.4 | P 29.3
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Shipments M/M Jul A -2.60% | C -0.70% | P -1.80% | R -1.90%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Current Account Balance (USD) Q2 A -123B | C -113B | P -117B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Aug A 1.18M | C 1.18M | P 1.16M | R 1.19M
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits Aug A 1.30M | C 1.22M | P 1.23M
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Import Price Index M/M Aug A 0.60% | C 0.40% | P 0.10% | R -0.10%
Good Luck,
Andy
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