Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 111.727 | EURUSD 1.1849 | AUDUSD 0.79368 | NZDUSD 0.72726 | USDCAD 1.23702 | USDCHF 0.96657 | GBPUSD 1.34693 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.18617 | 1.1846
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 111.801 | 111.499
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.34850 | 1.34649
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.96699 | 0.96529
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.79488 | 0.79227
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.23889 | 1.23653
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72782 | 0.72359
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.14609 | 1.14442
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.87999 | 0.87897
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 132.528 | 132.171
For today
- EUR: A very quiet session with the market trading off the 1.1850 areas and rising slowly through the 1.1860 areas before dropping back on the move into the grey area, Downside bids a little congested around the 1.1800 areas with weak stops likely on a move through the 1.1780 areas with 1.1760-40 likely to hold some bids with the market weak into the sentimental levels and stronger bids into 1.1700 areas. Topside offers limited through the topside with the move down opening up some gaps in the topside, offers likely into the 1.1900 areas with limited offers continuing through the the sentimental levels before beginning to thicken towards the 1.2000 areas again.
- GBP: Cable rose from the opening around the 1.3465 areas and traded into the Tokyo session holding around the 1.3480 for the bulk of the session, Topside offers light through the 1.3500 areas with limited potential for stops until a move through the 1.3550 areas and then likely to be light only, a push through does open up fresh tests of the 1.3600 level with strong offers likely to continue through the level and into the 1.3650 level with possibly stronger offers protecting weak stops from there on and the market opening to a larger move. Downside bids through the 1.3450 areas and increasing into the 1.3440 areas before the market sees some potential stops on a test of the 1.3400 level with possible strong bids persisting however, through the level is likely to open the market for a test lower with limited congestion to the 1.3300 areas.
- JPY: USDJPY opened around the 111.70 areas and made early highs into the Tokyo session to the 111.80 level however, the move was weak and limited and the market saw a slow drift back to the 111.50 areas holding the level through into the grey hour, Topside offers through the 112.20 areas are likely to be a little stronger after the recent failure and those offers are likely to build as the market moves towards the 112.50 areas, a push through the level will likely see weak stops appearing and the market running towards the 112.80-113.00 areas before meeting stronger offers again and the market struggling with those offers likely to continue through to the 113.30 areas before stops appear and the market opens to further congestion and a double top pattern from May and June coming into view. Downside bids into the current 111.50 areas with bids likely to be congested until a push through the 111.00 areas opens up a fest to the stronger 110.50 level and stronger congestion on any attempt lower.
- AUD: The Oz saw limited selling into the Tokyo session to take the low to the 0.7925 areas and similar to yesterday’s lower however, the market recovered from those lows and traded back through the opening levels and tested towards the 0.7950 areas before holding and ranging through to the grey hour before slipping slightly, Downside bids congestive through to the 79 cent levels and even a push through the level is likely to see those congestive bids likely to continue a push to the 0.7840 areas is likely to see stronger bids appearing however, with that there are likely to be strong stops on a break through the level with the market then struggling for support with 78 cent possible ok but stronger bids into the 0.7775 support level and possibly key to a larger move lower.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
KRW:
Foreign minister N. Korea says Trumps comments on twitter at the weekend are a clear declaration of war
- Korea has been moving warplanes, boosting defences on the eastern coast
CNY:
China says US/N. Korea issue getting too dangerous RTRS
USD:
Evan’s not convinced weak inflation is such a transitory event
Evan’s inflation expectations not consistent with Feds 2% goal
Kashkari: Not sure why inflation has been low
Kashkari: Yellen doing excellent job, I hope she’s reappointed
Kashkari: FED should be under no pressure to raise rates
EUR:
Draghi says the recent volatility in the exchange rate represents a source of uncertainty which requires monitoring
NZD:
The stalemate election result could force RBNZ to hike rates through uncertainty
NZ posts larger than expected trade deficit in August
Business confidence plunges to 2 yr. low ANZ
JPY:
Shinzo Abe bets on an early poll, and here in the UK we know how that works
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (NZD) Aug A -1235M | C -825M | P 85M | R 98M
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â BOJ Minutes July 19-20 Meeting
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Corporate Service Price Y/Y Aug A 0.80% | C 0.70% | P 0.60%
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NBNZ Business Confidence Sep A 0 | P 18.3
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Import Price Index M/M Aug C 0.10% | P -0.40%
13:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Jul C 5.80% | P 5.70%
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Home Sales Aug C 591K | P 571K
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Confidence Sep C 120 | P 122.9
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A weak start to the day saw the market recover from the low opening somewhat, pushing from the 1.1900 areas through to hold into the grey hour around the 1.1930 areas before finding itself in a tight declining channel through to the NYK opening, with weaker IFO numbers for Germany, the move through into the NYK session saw the market in Euro’s trading in the 1.1865-75 areas and this seemed to hold until the last hour of London with the market slipping back further and triggering weak stops through to the 1.1830 areas before finding some further support and holding to a quiet close around the 1.1840 areas.
- GBP: A choppy day with the market moving off the low opening and testing quickly through the 1.3500 areas and a steady rise through the Tokyo session into the grey hour pushing the 1.3570 levels, the move into the London session saw the market a little more resistant to the Euro’s decline however, it did drag on the market and the move lower saw the market back towards the opening levels only to push back to the 1.3530 areas, Euro’s break lower saw the Cable dropping back to the 1.3435 levels into the London close before holding around the 1.3470 areas to the close.
- JPY: Early gains for the USDJPY saw the market trading from the 112.20 areas and heading higher as two evenly balanced elections came to a somewhat nervous conclusion, that in Germany had more impact through the market with USDJPY topping around the 112.50 level into mid-session before slipping slowly back to the opening levels on the move into the grey hour, London saw a minor move lower however, the market held until towards the end of the London session before dropping quickly back to test the 111.50 areas before holding around the 111.70 to the close.
- AUD: A fairly quiet range bound day for the Oz with the market opening a little weaker before pushing into the Tokyo session and making highs for the day just short of the 0.7975 areas, the move through the London session saw the market largely holding around the 0.7950-75 areas and only moved a little lower once it moved towards the London close testing through the 0.7925 areas before holding to a quiet close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing Sep (P) A 52.6 | C 53.4 | P 52.2
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Business Climate Sep A 115.2 | C 116 | P 115.9 | R 115.7
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Expectations Sep A 107.4 | C 108 | P 107.9 | R 107.8
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Current Assessment Sep A 123.6 | C 124.7 | P 124.6 | R 124.7
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Conference Board Leading Index Aug A 1.10% | P 0.90% | R 1.00%
Good Luck,
Andy
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