Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 112.243 | EURUSD 1.1793 | AUDUSD 0.78867 | NZDUSD 0.72151 | USDCAD 1.23457 | USDCHF 0.96867 | GBPUSD 1.3459 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.17952 | 1.17754
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 112.545 | 112.25
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.34590 | 1.34236
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.97099 | 0.96883
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.78879 | 0.78576
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.23693 | 1.23452
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72167 | 0.71883
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.14425 | 1.14228
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.87750 | 0.87614
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 132.574 | 132.313
For today
- EUR: A quiet session with the market slipping from the opening around the 1.1790 areas to trade just below the 1.1780 areas and then back to the opening levels into the grey hour, Topside weak offers back through the 1.1800 levels with weak stops likely through the level and a possible squeeze through to the 1.1870 areas before meeting any decent offerings, then market from there is likely to see congestive offerings through to the 1.1900 areas and while those offers may thin out for a short period any movement towards that 1.2000 level again will see increasing resistance. Downside bids into the 1.1750 areas are likely to be congestive more than anything else with a move through slowly any challenge to the 1.1700 and better bids, weak stops through the 1.1680 areas are likely to find some stronger bids through the 1.1660 level and through to the 1.1640 area.
- GBP: Opening at its highs the market slipped slowly lower through the session pushing into the Tokyo session dropping back from the 1.3460 level to test the 1.3440 and then slowly range through the 1.3440-50 areas until later in the session dipping back through the low and holding around the 1.3435 areas into the grey hour. Downside bids into the 1.3410-00 areas with weak stops through the level and the market open again to the 1.3300 sentimental level with possibly little support, Topside offer slight through to the 1.3500 areas with some weak offers in the area and that vein likely to continue through to the 1.3550 levels from there thought the market is likely to thicken and increase through to the 1.3600 where the strongest offers reside, a push through the 1.3620 levels is likely to see weak stops appearing and the market opening for a run through 1.3650 sentimental levels and towards the 1.3700 area and possible stronger offers
- JPY: Quiet opening and then fixing demand took the market to the highs just above the 112.50 areas before dropping back to the 112.30 levels and ranging in a narrow band through the session to the grey hour. Topside offers around the 112.50 areas, a push through the level will likely see stronger offers on the lead to the 112.80-113.00 areas with stronger stops likely on the other side of the area. Downside bids likely to be weak with stops on another move back through the 111.80 areas however, these are likely to find better bids into the 111.50 levels with possible stronger stops on a move through the level, exposing a weaker 111.00 level with stronger congestion through the level.
- AUD: Having opened around the 0.7890 levels the market dipped on the release of the China numbers dropping initially back to the 0.7870 areas before attempting a rise back through to the 0.7890 areas before renewing the slide to test into the 0.7860 areas as the market approached the grey hour. Bids to the downside into the 0.7840 areas again with bids likely to continue through to the 0.7775 areas where stronger stops are likely and the market opening to a larger move lower. Topside offers limited back through the 79 cent area with congestion appearing once through the level however, a move through to the 0.7950 areas could see some weakness appearing and the 80 cent level again open for a push through.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
USD:
Yellen: Reiterates inflation shortfall in 2017 a mystery
Yellen: Expects inflation to move up somewhat in coming months
Yellen: Inflation data can be noisy month to month
Yellen: Labour market is getting tighter
Yellen: There are also risks of inflation overshoot
Yellen: Fed inflation goal is symmetric
Yellen: Would not be tragedy to see inflation overshoot
Yellen: FOMC not currently considering changing inflation goal
Yellen: Term premiums are quite narrow
Yellen: Balance sheet after unwind will remain bigger than pre-crisis
Yellen: upward pressure on term premiums as Fed balance sheet shrinks
Yellen: Not sure our path of rate hikes will be predictable
Yellen: Economy is capable of generating many surprises
Yellen: Fed path subject to great deal of uncertainty
Yellen: Notes of pace of rate increases hasn’t matched dot plots
Yellen: Don’t need excessive tightening to get to neutral
FED’s Bostic says he’s comfortable with a December rate increase
Trump is said to unveil 35% individual tax rate, could go higher
Trump lowers temperature in simmering conflict with N. Korea and claims pressure is working
CAD:
Canada economy can keep humming with higher USD Morneau
Higher interest rates expected given economics – Morneau
JPY:
BoJ’s easing not enough for new dissenter Goushi Kataoka who is seeking alternatives
EUR:
Schaeuble’s Finance post put in play as Merkel weighs talks
CNY:
China’s Q3 growth slips but still solid, commodity reversal a big risk
NZD:
New Zealand first leader Winston Peters won’t decide which way to go till after October 7
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
06:00    CHF       UBS Consumption Indicator Aug              P 1.38
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone M3 Y/Y Aug C 4.70% | P 4.50%
10:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CBI Realized Sales Sep C 8 | P -10
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Durable Goods Orders Aug (P) C 1.00% | P -6.80%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Durables Ex Transportation Aug (P) C 0.20% | P 0.60%
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Pending Home Sales M/M Aug C -0.50% | P -0.80%
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories P 4.6M
20:00Â Â Â Â NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBNZ Rate Decision C 1.75% | P 1.75%
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: Opening around the 1.1850 levels the mrekt moved into the Tokyo session unable to push to far beyond the 1.1860 areas and holding around the level through to the grey hour, the move into the grey hour saw a minor dip before recovering on better German import prices however, with Merkel looking for partners to form a stronger government the market started to slip lower as the ramifications impacted, trading slowly back to the 1.1820 levels into the early morning session in London the market eventually tipped through the level and some weak stops saw the market dipping through the 1.1800 levels and continued into the NYK session testing through to the 1.1770 levels before finding some support, the end of the London session saw a minor dip as Yellen spoke with the market testing to the 1.1760 areas before starting a steady recover through to the 1.1810 level and then drifting to the close.
- GBP: From the opening the market made a small gain through to the 1.3480 areas and held through the Asian session into the London session trading around the level in a narrow band, grey hour buying saw the market rise through to the 1.3515 levels as early London buyers moved in however it was short lived before dipping back to the 1.3480 ranging area, the move towards the NYK session saw the market slipping lower with steady USD buying taking the Cable lower and the market pressing through the 1.3430-40 areas before holding around the 1.3410 areas to the end of London, Yellen comments helped the Cable higher and back to range around the 1.3460 area.
- JPY: USDJPY moved through the Asian session weakly with the market unable to push above the 111.80 areas and dipping away from those highs to test the 111.50 areas through into the London session, USD buying through the London session saw the market gradually push through to the 112.00 level, the move into the NYK session saw weak stops triggered and the market moving to the 112.20 areas and apart from the movement around the Yellen comments the market struggled to make more ground and traded around the 112.20-30 areas to the close having tested to the 112.50 area.
- AUD: The Oz moved through the Asian session pushing towards the 0.7950 levels but unable to push through falling back to the lows into the grey hour, early London saw the market start a steady slide through the 0.7920 areas trading down into the NYK session testing the 79 cent levels, eventually continuing the movement dropping through to the 0.7880 areas before finding sufficient bids to hold the market around that area, Yellen’s chat saw some minor gyrations with the market testing to the 0.7860 level before bouncing back and testing to the 79 cent level before holding around the 0.7890 areas to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (NZD) Aug A -1235M | C -825M | P 85M | R 98M
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â BOJ Minutes July 19-20 Meeting
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Corporate Service Price Y/Y Aug A 0.80% | C 0.70% | P 0.60%
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NBNZ Business Confidence Sep A 0 | P 18.3
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Import Price Index M/M Aug A 0.00% | C 0.10% | P -0.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Jul A 5.80% | C 5.80% | P 5.70% | R 5.60%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Home Sales Aug A 560K | C 591K | P 571K | R 580K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Confidence Sep A 119.8 | C 120 | P 122.9 | R 120.4
Good Luck,
Andy
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