Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 112.346 | EURUSD 1.17868 | AUDUSD 0.78575 | NZDUSD 0.72342 | USDCAD 1.24274 | USDCHF 0.9701 | GBPUSD 1.34416 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.17906 | 1.17756
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 112.696 | 112.344
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.34397 | 1.34077
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.97207 | 0.97023
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.78548 | 0.78376
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.24452 | 1.24266
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72344 | 0.7208
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.14473 | 1.14317
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.87848 | 0.87676
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 132.820 | 132.351
For today
- EUR: A quiet range for the day with the market holding the closing areas from the day before, drifting a little from the beginning testing below the 1.1780 areas before returning and pushing through the 1.1790 levels for a brief period before returning to the lows and moving into the grey hour little changed on the day in limited volume. Light offers through the 1.1800 areas with congestive offers then appearing into the 1.1840-60 areas and likely to continue through to the stronger 1.1900 areas with weak stops possibly through that level, and the market open to the 1.1950 level before stronger offers start to appear on a move from there to the 1.2000 level. Downside bids into the 1.1720-00 areas with those bids likely to continue through to the 1.1680 areas with possible stops appear on a run to the possibly stronger bids into the 1.1660-40 levels with the market then opening to a large downside potential.
- GBP: The market drifted from the close in NYK testing from the 1.3445 areas and dipping slowly through to the 1.3410 areas before finding light support to hold the market through to the grey hour, Topside offers lightly congested with the main bulk of congestion around the 1.3500 areas with stronger offers likely into the 1.3550 areas and then opening to the 1.3600 areas and stronger offers around the level with stops above the 1.3620 level. Downside bids into the 1.3350 areas are still present and seem to be drawing more attention given there support yesterday, a push through the level though will likely see some weak stops appearing on a move into a sentimental 1.3300 areas with limited congestion on a move through the level.
- JPY: Weekend buying of the USD saw the USDJPY pushing from the opening around the 112.30 areas to rise steadily higher through to the 112.70 areas to then range around the 112.60 in quiet trading through to the grey hour, Topside offers into the 113.00-25 areas remain with possibly strong stops on a move through the level and opening a test into further strong offers from the 113.80 areas onwards with weak stops and further stops beyond the level. Downside bids light through to the 111.50 areas with congestive bids likely into that area, a push through will likely open up a strong test of the 111.00 levels and congestion through the level.
- AUD: A quiet range through to the grey hour with the market drifting off the opening level just below the 0.7860 areas to test the 0.7840 level and ranging between the 40-50 areas. Light bids through the current lows with stronger bids then likely to appear on the approach to the 78 cent level, possibly some weak stops on the move through the level however, bids are likely to continue until the 0.7775 areas are breached with strong stops likely on a push through the level and the 77 cent level becoming vulnerable to a test. Topside offer lightly congested through to the 79 cent areas with weak stops on a break through the level and then congestion increasing on a move towards the 0.7950 areas, and beyond.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
EUR:
Spain threatens to break up the Euro unless Catalonia comes to heel UKT
GBP:
UK sept consumer confidence improves to -9 vs. consensus of -11
CNY:
Chinese money continues to seep through to the world housing markets.
EUR/CNY:
EU ambassador urges China to match anti=protectionism talk with reform
USD:
Trump health secretary to repay cost of private jet travel
JPY:
BoJ member called for ramping up stimulation in September
Japan’s Aug industrial output rises 2.1% MoM
Japan’s inflation, labour demand and factory output signal solid economic recovery
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building permits M/M Aug A 10.20% | P -0.70% | R -1.70%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GfK Consumer Confidence Sep A -9 | C -11 | P -10
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Aug A 2.80% | C 2.80% | P 2.80%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Household Spending Y/Y Aug A 0.60% | C 0.90% | P -0.20%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â National CPI Core Y/Y Aug A 0.70% | C 0.70% | P 0.50%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Sep A 0.50% | C 0.50% | P 0.40%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â BOJ Summary of Opinions Sept.20-21 Meeting
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Trade Y/Y Aug A 1.70% | C 2.40% | P 1.90% | R 1.80%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Aug (P) A 2.10% | C 1.80% | P -0.80%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Y/Y Aug A -2.00% | C 0.60% | P -2.30%
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Retail Sales M/M Aug C 0.50% | P -1.20%
07:00Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â KOF Leading Indicator Sep C 105.5 | P 104.1
07:55Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Unemployment Change Sep C -5K | P -5K
07:55Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Unemployment Rate Sep C 5.70% | P 5.70%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Current Account (GBP) Q2 C -15.8B | P -16.9B
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Mortgage Approvals Aug C 67K | P 69K
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â M4 Money Supply M/M Aug C 0.20% | P 0.50%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q2 (F) C 0.30% | P 0.30%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Y/Y Q2 (F) C 1.70% | P 1.70%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Index of Services 3M/3M Jul C 0.70% | P 0.50%
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Sep C 1.60% | P 1.50%
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI – Core Y/Y Sep (A) C 1.20% | P 1.20%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP M/M Jul C 0.10% | P 0.30%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Product Price M/M Aug P -1.50%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Raw Materials Price Index M/M Aug P -0.60%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Personal Income Aug C 0.20% | P 0.40%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Personal Spending Aug C 0.10% | P 0.30%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Deflator M/M Aug C 0.30% | P 0.10%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Deflator Y/Y Aug C 1.50% | P 1.40%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Core M/M Aug C 0.20% | P 0.10%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Core Y/Y Aug C 1.40% | P 1.40%
13:45Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Chicago PMI Sep C 58.7 | P 58.9
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â U. of Michigan Confidence Sep (F) C 95.3 | P 95.3
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: Euro’s slipped a little through the Asian session opening just below the 1.1750 areas testing weekly through to above the level into the early Tokyo before drifting through the grey hour and the 1.1720 areas, before early London started to move in and the market began a steady recovery through to the NYK session pushing through to the 1.1780 areas. The move through the NYK session saw decent numbers for the USD however, the build-up of Inventories was a little surprising and the USD suffered through it with the other numbers in line, Euro’s pushed through to the 1.1800 areas before drifting back to the 1.1780 areas and a quiet range through to the close.
- GBP: As with the Euro early trading saw the market move off the opening level test to the 1.3410 areas before Tokyo sold the market back to the opening 1.3390 areas, the market continued its slide lower with a test into the grey hour, early buying took the market off the 1.3360 areas for a move back to 1.3390 however, London were quick sellers and the market moved to the supportive 1.3350 level bouncing quickly off the low and then returning in early morning choppiness, comments from Davis and Barnier saw mixed reviews with Barnier stating at least May’s speech last week had cleared some issues however, delays for the next stage remains as the EU again backs away from negotiations to tighten the tension for a few months. Cable jumped from Barnier’s comments to the 1.3420 levels triggering weak stops and slowly pushed through the 1.3440 areas ranging to the 1.3450 areas and holding generally around the 1.3450 level to the close.
- JPY: A quiet move through the Tokyo session saw the market moving tightly around the opening 112.80 areas before moving towards the grey hour, early buyers saw the market rallying into the 113.10 levels with some weak stops triggered after the tight range and the market moving through into the London session testing to the 113.20 levels before holding around the figure level for a couple of hours, before dropping back through the opening levels as the USD weakened with better Eurozone numbers, the market then traded through to the NYK session holding the 112.70 lows before again starting a choppy drift lower through to the end of the session testing through to the 112.30 at the end of the session.
- AUD: A quiet move through into the Tokyo session and dropping back quickly to test through the 0.7840 areas the market drifted through to the grey hour testing through to the 0.7810 areas, the move into the London session testing the 78 cent levels however, the market held the attempt and squeezed higher from the attempt to push back to range through the NYK session holding around the 0.7820 areas and from the opening in NYK started a slow rise through to the 0.7840 areas and then once London left the market the gain deepened a little testing back to the opening levels to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBNZ Rate Decision A 1.75% | C 1.75% | P 1.75%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German GfK Consumer Confidence Oct A 10.8 | C 11 | P 10.9
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Business Climate Indicator Sep A 1.34 | C 1.12 | P 1.09 | R 1.08
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Economic Confidence Sep A 113 | C 112 | P 111.9
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Industrial Confidence Sep A 6.6 | C 5.1 | P 5.1 | R 5
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services Confidence Sep A 15.3 | C 15 | P 14.9 | R 15.1
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Consumer Confidence Sep (F) A -1.2 | C -1.2 | P -1.2 | R -15
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI M/M Sep (P) A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI Y/Y Sep (P) A 1.80% | C 1.80% | P 1.80%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP (Annualized) Q2 (T) A 3.10% | C 3.10% | P 3.00%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Price Index Q2 (T) A 1.00% | C 1.00% | P 1.00%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (SEP 23) A 272K | C 269K | P 259K | R 260K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Advance Goods Trade Balance (USD) Aug A -62.9B | C -65.0B | P -65.1B | R -63.9B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Inventories Aug (P) A 1.00% | C 0.40% | P 0.60%
Good Luck,
Andy
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