Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 112.514 | EURUSD 1.18152 | AUDUSD 0.78324 | NZDUSD 0.72089 | USDCAD 1.24724 | USDCHF 0.96815 | GBPUSD 1.33972 |

 

LMAX Ranges 6am London time

Highs    Lows

EURUSD               1.18153 | 1.17705

USDJPY                 112.913 | 112.594

GBPUSD               1.34023 | 1.33583

AUDUSD              0.78467 | 0.78164

USDCHF               0.97124 | 0.9682

USDCAD               1.24965 | 1.24683

NZDUSD               0.72267 | 0.71893

EURGBP               0.88210 | 0.88035

EURCHF                1.14390 | 1.14211

EURJPY                 133.073 | 132.831

For today

• EUR: With holidays in Sydney and China the market started nervously with ramifications of the Catalan vote hitting the Euro, the market opened around the 1.1800-05 areas before moving into the Tokyo session and slipping steadily back through to the 1.1770 levels and holding just below the 1.1780 areas through into the grey hour. Light topside offers through the 1.1840-60 areas with increasing resistance into the 1.1900 areas and some congestion through the level with stronger offers appearing around the 1.1950 levels and through to the 1.2000 areas, Downside bids light through to the 1.1740 level where stronger bids start to appear through the level and into the 1.1700 areas, some weak stops likely on a push through the 1.1740 levels however, these will likely be absorbed with stronger stops likely to appear on a solid move through the 1.1680 areas.
• GBP: Cable opened a little weaker rose from the 1.3380 level to fill the gap on the charts to move into the Tokyo session around the 1.3400 areas, the market then slowly slipped lower through to the 1.3360areas before holding above the 1.3370 areas into the grey hour, Downside bids into the 1.3350 levels with possible weak stops on a move through the level, some stronger bids into the sentimental 1.3300 areas with possibly stronger stops on a break through the level and the market then vulnerable to the 1.3220 levels before stronger bids make an appearance. Topside offers light through the congestive 1.3400 areas and a push through the 1.3450 level will likely see some stops appearing for a move back to the congested and stronger resistance around the level.
• JPY: With some instability in Europe the USD found its legs from the opening with the USDJPY holding the closing level into today’s holding and pushing off the 112.50 areas to rise to the 112.65 level into Tokyo and then continuing a steady rise to the 112.90 area and holding the 112.80 levels into the grey hour. Topside offers likely through the 113.00 and continuing into the 113.20-30 areas before weak stops appear a push through the level will likely see the market moving into the 113.50 areas unimpeded with the target of 113.80 likely to see the next round of selling holding the level through to the lighter 114.00 areas however, congestion from there is likely to slow the market on a move through to the 114.50 areas. Downside bids light through to the 112.00 areas with some light congestion in the area through to the 111.85 levels before the market sees weak stops on the move through and the market opening for a deeper move if it than break strongly to target the 111.00 areas.
• AUD: A quiet rise from the opening 0.7835 level to push just above the 0.7845 areas as the market moved into the Tokyo session, Tokyo saw the market drifting with the market slipping back through the opening areas and testing through to below the 0.7820 areas before holding in the areas through to the grey hours. Downside bids light through to the 78 cent level with stronger bids likely from that point and through to the 0.7775 areas with weak stops in the area possibly opening the market to a deep move through to test the 77 cent level, Topside offers light through the 79 cent areas with some stronger offers and congestion beyond the level with the market likely to struggle once above the level.

Overnight News

EUR:

Catalan government says 90% voted to leave Spain

JPY:

Japan business confidence hits decade high: BoJ

CAD:

Five injured, Somalian suspect arrested as Canada probes act of terrorism

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

JPY         Tankan Large Manufacturers Index Q3 A 22 | C 18 | P 17

JPY         Tankan Large Manufacturers Outlook Q3 A 19 | C 16 | P 15

JPY         Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index Q3 A 23 | C 24 | P 23

JPY         Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook Q3 A 19 | C 21 | P 18

JPY         Tankan Large All Industry Capex Q3 A 7.70% | C 8.40% | P 8.00%

JPY         Tankan Small Mfg Index Q3 A 10 | C 8 | P 7

JPY         Tankan Small Mfg Outlook Q3 A 8 | C 6 | P 6

JPY         Tankan Small Non-Mfg Index Q3 A 8 | C 7 | P 7

JPY         Tankan Small Non-Mfg Outlook Q3 A 4 | C 2 | P 2

AUD       TD Securities Inflation M/M Sep A 0.30% | P 0.10%

JPY         PMI Manufacturing Sep (F) A 52.9 | C 52.6 | P 52.6

07:15     CHF        Retail Sales (Real) Y/Y Aug C 0.50% | P -0.70%

07:30     CHF        SVME PMI Sep C 60.5 | P 61.2

07:45     EUR        Italy Manufacturing PMI Sep C 56.8 | P 56.3

07:50     EUR        France Manufacturing PMI Sep (F) C 56 | P 56

07:55     EUR        Germany Manufacturing PMI Sep (F) C 60.6 | P 60.6

08:00     EUR        Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Sep (F) C 58.2 | P 58.2

08:30     GBP       PMI Manufacturing Sep C 56.2 | P 56.9

09:00     EUR        Eurozone Unemployment Rate Aug C 9.00% | P 9.10%

13:30     CAD       Canada Manufacturing PMI Sep P 54.6

13:45     USD       Manufacturing PMI Sep (F) C 53 | P 53

14:00     USD       ISM Manufacturing Sep C 58 | P 58.8

14:00     USD       ISM Prices Paid Sep C 64 | P 62

14:00     USD       Construction Spending M/M Aug C 0.40% | P -0.60%

23:50     JPY         Monetary Base Y/Y Sep C 16.30% | P 16.30%

Weekend News

EUR:

Many hurt as riot police crackdown on banned Catalan vote

Euro wobbles briefly on Spanish voe

Knifeman yelling Allahu Akbar shot dead after killing two in France

EU declines to rank rival bids for agencies leaving Britain over Brexit

EUR/GBP:

Only miracles can move Brexit talks forward by October, EU tells Britain

USD:

Trump tells Tillerson N. Korea outreach a waste of time

GBP:

Under pressure PM May says she can steer Britain through Brexit

Harry Hindsight

• EUR: Tight range through the Asian session with the market slipping from the opening just below the 1.1790 areas and trading for the most part around the 1.1780 level, brief movement to the 1.1790 levels but the market generally tests lower through to the grey hour, poor retail sales out of Germany having little impact as the Euro quickly rose to the 1.1800 levels to range for a few hours around the figure level, better employment numbers in Germany and Eurozone CPI estimates helped the market the move through to the NYK session saw the market moving through to a push to the 1.1835 areas before dropping quickly back as US numbers came in broadly in line with the market then chopping through to the close above the 1.1800.
• GBP: Cable lost ground through the day with the EURGBP gaining for the most part with Asia setting the tone with the market drifting from the opening around the 1.3440 areas and the highs for the day to test back into the grey hours holding the 1.3410 level, the move into London saw YoY GDP figures slipping as the quarterly held in the expected areas, the Cable tested through to the 1.3350 level before bouncing for the first time before moving into the NYK session to quickly test those lows again into NYK, the market again bounced off the level and pushed to the 1.3420 areas before ranging through to the close around the 1.3400 areas.
• JPY: USDJPY remained in a tight range for the most par with the market opening around the 112.30 levels rising through into the Tokyo session testing through to the 112.65 areas and ranging through to the London session holding around that level with a brief push to the 112.70 levels before dipping lower the market then held through early London into the NYK session, the market dipped quickly through to the 112.25 areas before recovering and again quickly testing the highs, the market then ranged around the 112.45-65 areas through to the close to finish mid-range.
• AUD: A choppy day for the Oz however, the range was limited for the most part with the market dropping from the opening highs around the 0.7855 area and the market drifting through to the grey hours holding the 0.7850 areas, the move through the London session was uneventful for the most part and the move into the NYK session saw the market dropping back through to make lows around the 0.7820 levels before bouncing back to range around the 0.7840 levels to the close.

 

Yesterday’s premiership results

NZD       Building Permits M/M Aug A 10.20% | P -0.70% | R -1.70%

GBP       GfK Consumer Confidence Sep A -9 | C -11 | P -10

JPY         Unemployment Rate Aug A 2.80% | C 2.80% | P 2.80%

JPY         Household Spending Y/Y Aug A 0.60% | C 0.90% | P -0.20%

JPY         National CPI Core Y/Y Aug A 0.70% | C 0.70% | P 0.50%

JPY         Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Sep A 0.50% | C 0.50% | P 0.40%

JPY         BOJ Summary of Opinions Sept.20-21 Meeting

JPY         Retail Trade Y/Y Aug A 1.70% | C 2.40% | P 1.90% | R 1.80%

JPY         Industrial Production M/M Aug (P) A 2.10% | C 1.80% | P -0.80%

JPY         Housing Starts Y/Y Aug A -2.00% | C 0.60% | P -2.30%

EUR        German Retail Sales M/M Aug A -0.40% | C 0.50% | P -1.20% | R -0.60%

CHF        KOF Leading Indicator Sep A 105.8 | C 105.5 | P 104.1 | R 104.2

EUR        German Unemployment Change Sep A -23K | C -5K | P -5K | R -6K

EUR        German Unemployment Rate Sep A 5.60% | C 5.70% | P 5.70%

GBP       Current Account (GBP) Q2 A -23.2B | C -15.8B | P -16.9B

GBP       Mortgage Approvals Aug A 67K | C 67K | P 69K

GBP       M4 Money Supply M/M Aug A 0.90% | C 0.20% | P 0.50%

GBP       GDP Q/Q Q2 (F) A 0.30% | C 0.30% | P 0.30%

GBP       GDP Y/Y Q2 (F) A 1.50% | C 1.70% | P 1.70%

GBP       Index of Services 3M/3M Jul A 0.50% | C 0.70% | P 0.50%

EUR        Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Sep A 1.50% | C 1.60% | P 1.50%

EUR        Eurozone CPI – Core Y/Y Sep (A) A 1.10% | C 1.20% | P 1.20%

CAD       GDP M/M Jul A 0.00% | C 0.10% | P 0.30%

CAD       Industrial Product Price M/M Aug A 0.30% | C 0.50% | P -1.50% | R -1.60%

CAD       Raw Materials Price Index M/M Aug A 1.00% | C 0.30% | P -0.60% | R -0.90%

USD       Personal Income Aug A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.40% | R 0.30%

USD       Personal Spending Aug A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.30%

USD       PCE Deflator M/M Aug A 0.20% | C 0.30% | P 0.10%

USD       PCE Deflator Y/Y Aug A 1.40% | C 1.50% | P 1.40%

USD       PCE Core M/M Aug A 0.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.10%

USD       PCE Core Y/Y Aug A 1.30% | C 1.40% | P 1.40%

USD       Chicago PMI Sep A 65.2 | C 58.7 | P 58.9

USD       U. of Michigan Confidence Sep (F) A 95.1 | C 95.3 | P 95.3

Stay lucky

Andy

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