Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 112.756 | EURUSD 1.17324 | AUDUSD 0.78269 | NZDUSD 0.7200 | USDCAD 1.25099 | USDCHF 0.97488 | GBPUSD 1.32766 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.17404 | 1.17021
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 113.179 | 112.662
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.32803 | 1.32293
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.97841 | 0.97398
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.78346 | 0.77918
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.25372 | 1.25117
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.71980 | 0.71583
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.14572 | 1.14319
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.88478 | 0.88312
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 132.485 | 132.199
For today
- EUR: A quiet session for the Euro with the market moving into the Tokyo session holding the 1.1730-40 areas before dipping back to test the 1.1710 levels as an after effect of yesterday, the move towards the grey hour sees the market running close to the 1.1700 areas and the market struggling with the level, Topside offers weak through the 1.1800 areas with the market likely to be a bit thin through to that level with weak stops likely through the level, and the market very lightly congested through to the 1.1840-60 areas, and then a free way to the 1.1900 level. Downside bids likely to be light through to the 1.1660 areas with some light congestion down to that trend line with a push through likely to see some stops appearing for a move deeper into the July ranges however, a push through the level will see limited sentimental bids through to the 1.1600 areas with further stops below.
- GBP: Cable opened around the 1.3280 areas and started to sag as soon as the market moved into the Tokyo session with a gradual weakness pushing through to the 1.3230 levels before finding some buying in the area, Bids into the 1.3220-00 areas are likely to be reasonably strong and the movement to the highs on the back of the PM May address in Italy are well and truly accounted for, a push through the level will likely see some congestive buying however, a push through the 1.3190 areas is likely to see the market weakening further with light congestion to the 1.3100 areas and possibly light profit taking. Topside offers light back through the 1.3300 areas with some offers possibly just beyond that level however, the market is likely to be thin on any move higher with decent offers not suspected until closer to the 1.3400 areas.
- JPY: USDJPY moved quietly through to the Tokyo session holding around the 112.75 areas before quickly rising through to the 113.00 areas with the market pushing through and triggering some light stops on a move to test the 113.20 resistance area, the market remains in that area as we head into the grey hour with very little news. Topside offers into the 113.20-30 areas with possible weak stops on a break through the level and the market then open to a challenge of the 113.80-114.00 level with possibly stronger offers in the area. Downside bids light through to the 112.20 level and some congestive bids then protecting the 111.80 areas and possible weak stops however, the movement to the 111.50 area is likely to see congestive bids appearing with possibly stronger bids into the 111.00-20 level even a break here is likely to see bids continuing through to the 110.50 level.
- AUD: The Oz saw light trading on the lead up to the RBA announcement, moving from the opening 0.7830 levels the market remained in a 0.7825-35 range through into the Tokyo session, USD buying or maybe Oz selling before the release saw the Oz dip back to the 0.7810 areas and then trade quietly through to the Neutral release with no change on the rate and nothing we haven’t heard several times since the last rate movement. The Oz dropped back to trade through the 78 cent level however, support just below was sufficient to hold the market for the move into the London session. Topside offers light through to the 0.7840-60 levels with a push through that topside possibly causing a small squeeze higher into the 79 cent areas however, the market remains in a tight range and looks for the next movement in rates, Downside bids through the 78 cent level are likely to extend to the 0.7775 areas with weak stops and break out stops likely to appear for a test through the 77 cent areas if the USDJPY rises on the break lower for the Oz then the impact will be less noticeable however, if the Oz was to move through quickly AUDJPY could see some difficult trading and the market could see a sharper move.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
EUR:
Greece must wrap up review by year end to start talks on bailout exit Dijsselbloem
USD:
White House says not the time to talk with Pyongyang
Fed’s Yellen says AIG’s threat to stability is reduced after downsizing
AUD:
Australia new home sales rebound in August
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Monetary Base Y/Y Sep A 15.60% | C 16.30% | P 16.30%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Approvals M/M Aug A 0.00% | C 1.00% | P -1.70% | R -1.20%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBA Rate Decision A 1.50% | C 1.50% | P 1.50%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Confidence Sep A 43.9 | C 43.5 | P 43.3
8:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction PMI Sep C 51.1 | P 51.1
9:00       EUR       Eurozone PPI M/M Aug  C 0.10% | P 0.00%
9:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PPI Y/Y Aug C 2.30% | P 2.00%
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: The weekends vote in Catalonia saw riot police lashing out at the gatherings in and indiscriminate manner and the Euro reacted to the news with the market opening a little weaker around the 1.1810 areas and moving into the Tokyo session testing lower through to the 1.1770 levels before holding around the level through into the grey hour, London continued the selling as the TV screens showed more, with the Euro drifting through to the 1.1730 areas before finding sufficient support to hold the market through to the end of the session.
- GBP: Early buying saw the market regaining some of the opening losses and the market then drifting off from the 1.3400 level on a steady decline through the day with the drag of the Euro and holidays in Australia and China. Once the market moved into the London session it accelerated its decline dropping through the 1.3350 levels to trigger weak stops and holding into the NYK session around the 1.3300 areas before dipping on the NYK open to test the 1.3260areas before holding through to the close around the 1.3280 areas, media speculation again sparked by some comments saw PM May defending her position and Boris Johnson fully backing the PM. Phillip Hammond spoke on the subject of the rise of the looney left causing investment issues to the UK and fears of a return to the 1970’s where Unions held sway.
- JPY: A limited day for the USDJPY with the market moving in a somewhat narrow range with the market moving off the 112.50 levels and testing to the 112.70 areas, the move into the Tokyo session saw the market again testing higher and pushing through to the 112.90 levels and holding around that level through to the grey hour, early London took the market above the 113.00 areas and the high and low were made for the day, the move through to the NYK session saw the market slip back towards the lows again and the market this time held around the 112.55 areas with spikes higher around the ISM numbers but generally holding the 112.55-75 level through to the close.
- AUD: Market opened around the 0.7835 levels and made some early gains to the 0.7845 areas before starting a slow steady slide through to the 0.7820 level and holding through to the London session, London were sellers pushing for the 78 cent level and although they breached it in early trading they were unable to push through the bids and the market eventually started to move off the level and trade steadily through to the opening levels before ranging through the NYK session holding around the 0.7830 level in quiet trading.
Yesterday’s premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tankan Large Manufacturers Index Q3 A 22 | C 18 | P 17
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tankan Large Manufacturers Outlook Q3 A 19 | C 16 | P 15
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index Q3 A 23 | C 24 | P 23
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook Q3 A 19 | C 21 | P 18
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tankan Large All Industry Capex Q3 A 7.70% | C 8.40% | P 8.00%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tankan Small Mfg Index Q3 A 10 | C 8 | P 7
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tankan Small Mfg Outlook Q3 A 8 | C 6 | P 6
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tankan Small Non-Mfg Index Q3 A 8 | C 7 | P 7
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tankan Small Non-Mfg Outlook Q3 A 4 | C 2 | P 2
AUD      TD Securities Inflation M/M Sep A 0.30% | P 0.10%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing Sep (F) A 52.9 | C 52.6 | P 52.6
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales (Real) Y/Y Aug A -0.20% | C 0.50% | P -0.70%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SVME PMI Sep A 61.7 | C 60.5 | P 61.2
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Italy Manufacturing PMI Sep A 56.3 | C 56.8 | P 56.3
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Manufacturing PMI Sep (F) A 56.1 | C 56 | P 56
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Manufacturing PMI Sep (F) A 60.6 | C 60.6 | P 60.6
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Sep (F) A 58.1 | C 58.2 | P 58.2
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing Sep A 55.9 | C 56.2 | P 56.9 | R 56.7
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Unemployment Rate Aug A 9.10% | C 9.00% | R 9.10%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Canada Manufacturing PMI Sep A 55 | P 54.6
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing PMI Sep (F) A 53.1 | C 53 | P 53
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Manufacturing Sep A 60.8 | C 58 | P 58.8
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Prices Paid Sep A 71.5 | C 64 | P 62
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction Spending M/M Aug A 0.50% | C 0.40% | P -0.60%
Good Luck,
Andy
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