Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 112.818 | EURUSD 1.17107 | AUDUSD 0.77942 | NZDUSD 0.71155 | USDCAD 1.25662 | USDCHF 0.97829 | GBPUSD 1.3118 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.17155 | 1.1686
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 113.025 | 112.578
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.30730 | 1.31211
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.98001 | 0.97815
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.77985 | 0.77442
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.25916 | 1.25618
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.71212 | 0.70912
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.14634 | 1.14522
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.89437 | 0.89235
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 132.202 | 131.968
For today
- EUR: The Euro opened around the 1.1710 areas and held into the Tokyo session with the Tokyo fix seeing some USD buying and the market dipping to the figure level only to move back higher, the market having recovered to the 1.1715 areas then stared a slow slip through to the figure areas again and the move through saw some limited stops to quickly take the market to the 1.1680 areas before bouncing like a soggy cat and unable to move back through the figure level, slightly congested bids to the downside with stronger bids into the 1.1660 areas, congestive bids below the 1.1660 areas are likely to be mixed with stops with weaker bids into the 1.1600 levels and the market opening to limited support through the level and into the 1.1500 areas. Topside offers into the 1.1700 very light and the market open to the 1.1750 before some congestive offers appearing a push through the 1.1760 level will likely see some weak stops appearing and stronger offers into the 1.1800 however, stronger is subjective and a push through could see a potential short covering into the 1.1850 areas.
- GBP: The move into the new session saw a limited follow through from the US numbers with the Cable slipping back from the opening around 1.3120 to test initially through to the Tokyo session, as with the Euro the fix was sufficient to turn the Cable through the figure area before returning to the 1.3100 level, the market held for a few hours around the level and then started to drift as the market pushed towards the grey hour testing through to the 1.3080 areas before finding some support. Downside bids into the 1.3050 and the start of strong congestion through to the 1.2980 areas with the market particularly strong into the figure level any stops through the 1.3050 are likely to be absorbed by these bids and the downside is likely to see further support coming in on the 1.2900 handle however, NFP today and that could see some USD movement over the course of the NYK session and once the London session is over, well. Topside offer slight through to the 1.3200 areas with the 1.3100 handle likely to be very weak for the moment, light congestion into the 1.3200 areas could see the market popping through and triggering weak stops and a mini short squeeze on an indifferent NFP with the 1.3250-1.3300 areas stronger.
- JPY: A quiet move through the Asian session with USDJPY rising a little for the weekend USD buying before holding around the 112.85 areas with late buying pushing the market to the 113.00 areas holding through to the grey hour, Topside offers still remain above the 113.25 level with a push through the level likely to see strong stops appearing and the market possibly advancing quickly through top the 113.80-114.00 level where stronger offers are likely to appear and the market moving through that level will likely see a weaker attempt to push higher than previously. Downside bids sees light congestion into the 112.50 areas with a push to the 112.00 areas possibly seeing weak stops appearing on the downside and the stronger 111.50 level becoming vulnerable to a strong test lower and into the 111 level.
- AUD: The Oz opened below the 78 cent levels and then moved into the Tokyo session testing down to the 0.7775 support line bouncing off the level a couple of times however, the level broke on the third attempt and the stops were quickly absorbed on a quick move to the 0.7740’s to move back towards the 0.7760 areas into the grey hour. With RBA’s Harper on the wires the interview would at best look coincidental. Downside bids a little thing now the 0.7775 area is out of the way and one did expect that to be a holding area for the short term with the market now at the top of the first half of this year’s range weaker bids into the 77 cent levels are likely to come under pressure and the 75-77 cent congestive area open however, it may be a long time in moving through that level just as it was in breaking higher in the first place.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
GBP:
BDO accountancy firm say retail sales jumped for Sept to 2.9% MoM
JPY:
Japanese workers’ wages rise in positive sign for consumer spending
USD:
US probe met ex-British spy over Trump claims CNN
Trump expected to decertify Iran nuclear deal, official says
EUR:
Fitch joins S&P in issuing Catalonia debt downgrade warning
AUD:
RBA’s Harper not ruling out rate cut
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Labour Cash Earnings Y/Y Aug A 0.90% | C 0.50% | P -0.30% | R -0.60%
05:00Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Leading Index Aug (P) A | C 107.2 | P 105.2
06:00    EUR       German Factory Orders M/M Aug  C 0.70% | P -0.70%
07:00Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF) Sep P 717B
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net Change in Employment Sep C 14.0K | P 22.2K
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Sep C 6.30% | P 6.20%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Change in Non-farm Payrolls Sep C 77K | P 156K
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Sep C 4.40% | P 4.40%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Average Hourly Earnings M/M Sep C 0.30% | P 0.10%
14:00Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Ivey PMI Sep C 57.2 | P 56.3
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Inventories Aug (F) C 1.00% | P 1.00%
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: Asia was without surprises with the market trading in a narrow range through to the grey hour, trading opened around the 1.1760 level and held around that level dipping into the mid 1.1750’s but unable to make any headway to the topside, the move into the London session saw early East Europe buying to push lightly above the 1.1760 areas before slipping back again to test the 1.1750 areas into the London opening, strong buying from the opening saw the market pushing to the 1.1780 level and holding through the Eurozone numbers before starting to drift from the level as the market moved towards the NYK session trading through to the 1.1740 areas before the opening, the US data was a lot better than expected on all fronts with the Trade balance and factory orders seeing the market drop back in two waves to the 1.1710 level with the market then holding the 1.1700 areas through to the close.
- GBP: A quiet Asian session with the market dipping a little into the Tokyo session to test lightly through the 1.3230 areas before slowly recovering towards the grey hour to push against the 1.3250 level. London were quick sellers pushing through the 1.3220 level and triggering weak stops on a move to the 1.3180 areas before holding through the next few hours around that level however, with energy products again on the rise after the meeting between Putin and Opec Cable continued to drift through to the NYK session and a set of decent numbers sending the market from the 1.3170 level and through the sentimental 1.3150 area to range quietly into the London close holding around the 1.3130 areas, with little to hold the market in place the market continued to slip slowly closer to the 1.3100 areas basing around the 1.3110 in a long drawn out move to the close.
- JPY: Limited range for the USDJPY throughout the day with the market opening around the 112.75 areas and making early gains into the Tokyo session with some comments about continuing friendship between Japan and the US and working together against the threat of N. Korea however, the highs around the 112.90 level were short lived and the market moved back to the opening levels faster than they gained the highs for the day, the move into the grey hour saw some buying move in but nothing to challenge the early highs and the move into the London session saw several rounds of cross JPY selling in particular GBPJPY and the market in USDJPY slipped steadily lower to push through to below the 112.40 levels to move into the NYK session and the stronger US numbers, The market started to steadily recover through the NYK session pushing up to the 112.85 levels for the final run to the close.
- AUD: The Oz was holding quietly from the opening around the 0.7860 levels, the weaker than expected Retail sales figures saw the Oz drop quickly through the 0.7840 levels holding for the most part around the 0.7830 areas through to the grey hour, early selling was limited and the market rose a little from the London opening but was unable to push through the 0.7840 areas, before starting a slow drift through the balance of the session drifting to the 0.7790 level before finding some light support to hold to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (AUD) Aug A 0.99B | C 0.87B | P 0.46B | R 0.81B
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Aug A -0.60% | C 0.30% | P 0.00% | R -0.20%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Sep A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.00%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Sep A 0.70% | C 0.60% | P 0.50%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Retail PMI Sep A 52.3 | P 50.8
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Sep A -27.00% | P 5.10%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â International Merchandise Trade (CAD) Aug A -3.4B | C -2.7B | P -3.0B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (SEP 30) A 260K | C 263K | P 272K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance Aug A -42.4B | C -43.0B | P -43.7B | R -43.6B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Factory Orders Aug A 1.20% | C 0.90% | P -3.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A 42B | C 47B | P 58B
Good Luck,
Andy
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