Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 112.283 | EURUSD 1.1830 | AUDUSD 0.78211 | NZDUSD 0.70738 | USDCAD 1.24746 | USDCHF 0.97544 | GBPUSD 1.32627 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.18799 | 1.18585
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 112.506 | 112.262
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.32657 | 1.32235
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.97360 | 0.97146
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.78240 | 0.77905
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.24608 | 1.24401
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.71193 | 0.70885
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.15491 | 1.15378
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.89710 | 0.89491
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 133.488 | 133.24
For today
- EUR: Euro’s rose a little from the opening before dipping back to test towards the 1.1825 levels into the Tokyo opening, from there it was a steady rise through to the 1.1850 levels with very little in the market news wise to generate anything abnormal and the market drifted around the level to the grey hours. Topside offers into the 1.1880 areas with weak stops on a push through the level and into the 1.1900 levels, light congestion continues through the level and increases into the 1.1950 areas, even through the level the market continues be congestive and a move towards the 1.2000 areas are likely to be very strong, Downside bids light into the 1.1800 areas with possible weak stops on a move through the 1.1780 levels and reasonably strong into the 1.1750 areas and through to the 1.1700 level.
- GBP: A very quiet session for the Cable with the market opening around the 1.3260 areas and ranging in a very tight range deep into the Tokyo session before testing the 1.3280 areas and holding then above the 1.3270 levels through to the grey hour, Topside offers into the 1.3300 area with possibly stronger stops on a move through the level and the market open to limited offers around 1.3350 and then the 1.3400 stronger offers, downside bids light into the 1.3200 level however, those bids are likely to be still building and a move through will see light stops appearing and the market open to another test down to the 1.3100 levels and stronger bids from there onwards.
- JPY: USDJPY slipped lower through into the Tokyo session slowly, opening around the 112.25-30 areas the market slowly trickled back to the 112.20 areas before dropping quickly back once the market pushed through the level to test into the 112.00 areas before rebounding to weakly test the 112.20 level and ranging through to the 112.15 areas to the grey hour. Topside offers light through the to the 112.50 areas then some light offers start to appear with the offers likely to continue through to the 112.80 level where they possibly increase, with stronger congestive offers likely to continue to the 113.50 levels and what is becoming a key level for any movement beyond and likely to attract strong stops. Downside bids into the 112.00 areas are likely to see the market give way to weak stops on a move below the 111.80 levels however congestion in the area could slow the market on a move towards the 111.00 areas and then stronger bids appearing on a move into the 110.50 level.
- AUD: The Oz opened around the 0.7820 areas and then struggled to rise above the 0.7840 level with the highs just beyond the level before holding quietly just below into the grey hour. Light congestive offers to the Topside through the 0.7850-60 areas with the possibility of continuing congestion to the 79 cent areas however a push through the level could see the market pushing through into light stops but with intentions to challenge higher although it may possibly be a bit of a grind to get anywhere meaningful, Downside bids through the 0.7775-0.7750 areas with congestion and possible strong bids into the 77 cent areas, fundamentals suggest that Oz is likely to be bid for the moment with nothing but AUDJPY cross to upset the steady Oz.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
SGD:
Singapore MAS keeps zero appreciation path of SGD
Singapore MAS maintains width, centre of currency band
MAS says core inflation is projected to come in at around 1.5% in 2017
Headline inflation is expected to come in at around the 0.5% this year
Singapore economy grows 4.6% in Q3 beats expectations
EUR:
ECB are in consensus to extend asset purchases at lower volumes in Oct meeting
Views converge on 9 month extension sources familiar with discussion
ECB still debate size of asset buys, see them between 25B-40B per month sources
S&P warns of Catalan recession if crisis drags on
EUR/GBP:
With 2 warnings of a no deal, Brexit talks hit cash impasse, Barnier eyes move by December
Britain must assume consequences of Brexit French Minister
G7:
G7 Met to agree on more pressure vs. N. Korea Japan’s Asakawa
CNY/KRW:
China’s Sep imports from N. Korea down 37.9% drop for 7th straight month
USD:
Frustrated by Congress, Trump signs order to weaken Obamacare
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (USD) Sep A 28.5B | C 38.1B | P 42.0B
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (CNY) Sep A 193B | C 266B | P 287B
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Business Performance of Manufacturing Index Sep A 57.5 | P 57.9
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Sep A 4.10% | C 4.00% | P 4.00%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBA Financial Stability Review
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI M/M Sep (F) C 0.10% | P 0.10%
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI Y/Y Sep (F) C 1.80% | P 1.80%
07:15Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Producer & Import Prices M/M Sep C 0.30% | P 0.30%
07:15Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Producer & Import Prices Y/Y Sep C 0.60% | P 0.60%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Sep C 0.60% | P 0.40%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Sep C 2.30% | P 1.90%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core M/M Sep C 0.20% | P 0.20%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core Y/Y Sep C 1.80% | P 1.70%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Advance Retail Sales Sep C 1.50% | P -0.20%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Less Autos Sep C 0.90% | P 0.20%
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â U. of Michigan Confidence Oct (P) C 95.1 | P 95.1
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Business Inventories Aug C 0.50% | P 0.20%
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Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A weak rise through the Asian session with the marked moving off the 1.1860 levels and pushing slowly through to the 1.1880 levels into the London session, a stronger IP number had little effect on the market with the Euro dipping back to the opening levels and slowly stepping lower through the balance of the session with the move into the NYK session slowly pushing into the 1.1820 levels before finding sufficient support to hold to the close.
- GBP: Asia saw a steady climb from the opening 1.3220 areas to push above the 1.3260 levels through into the London session before starting a slow decline back to the opening levels and then dropping quickly back as weak stops at wittering from the EU set the market to the 1.3120 level NYK opening saw the market on its lows and the market start a slow and steady climb through to the 1.3170 areas before a short squeeze took the market through the 1.3220 levels again and the market continuing through to the 1.3280 areas before slowing and then trading quietly through to the close.
- JPY: USDJPY opened lower and then filled the gap quickly even if it was less than 10 pips however, the move to the 112.50 level was the high for the situation before slipping lower into the Tokyo session and holding through to the grey hour in a tight range to 112.35, London were slow sellers and mid-morning saw the market holding the 112.20 areas, the market remained in the 112.20-40 areas through deep into the NYK session, with London closed the market dropped quickly testing through to the 112.15 levels before bouncing and rising back to the 112.30 close.
- AUD: A slow rise from the opening lows of the day pushing from the 0.7790 level and steadily moving through into the London session to the 0.7835 levels before running into some minor interference and the market drifting through to the NYK session holding the 78 cent level and moving with little momentum to a close around the 0.7820 areas and the topside 0.7840 level unchallenged.
Yesterday’s premiership results
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RICS House price balance Sep A 6.00% | C 4.00% | P 6.00%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Domestic CGPI Y/Y Sep A 3.00% | C 3.00% | P 2.90%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer inflation expectation Oct A 4.30% | P 3.80%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Home Loans Aug A 1.00% | C 0.50% | P 2.90% | R 2.80%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Tertiary industry Index M/M Aug A -0.20% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Aug A 1.40% | C 0.60% | P 0.10% | R 0.30%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Housing Price Index M/M Aug A 0.10% | C 0.30% | P 0.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI M/M Sep A 0.40% | C 0.40% | P 0.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Y/Y Sep A 2.60% | C 2.60% | 2.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core M/M Sep A 0.40% | C 0.20% | 0.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core Y/Y Sep A 2.20% | C 2.00% | 2.00%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (OCT 07) A 243K | C 253K | P 260K | R 258K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A 87B | C 74B | P 42B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Inventories A -2.7M | C -1.9M | P -6.0M
Good Luck,
Andy
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