Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 113.431 | EURUSD 1.17493 | AUDUSD 0.7806 | NZDUSD 0.69616 | USDCAD 1.26472 | USDCHF 0.98493 | GBPUSD 1.31969 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.17702 | 1.17478
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 113.490 | 113.247
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.32279 | 1.31972
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.98521 | 0.98382
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.78249 | 0.7807
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.26473 | 1.26221
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.70047 | 0.69345
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.15838 | 1.15721
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.89049 | 0.88948
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 133.381 | 133.188
For today
- EUR: A quiet steady rise from the close in NYK saw the market moving through to test the 1.1770 levels before drifting in the last hour before the grey hour to the 1.1660 level, Topside light offers into the current levels with stronger offers likely on a test towards the 1.1800 areas with limited stops on a move through the 1.1820 level with congestion then appearing through the 1.1840-60 areas and stronger offers into the 1.1880 level, a push through the 1.1900 areas is likely to see stronger stops appearing and the market mildly resistant to the move through to the 1.1940 area.
- Downside bids into the 1.1720-00 areas with possible weak stops on a move through the 1.1680 level which is likely to leave the market to the downside exposed to a larger move with sentimental levels dominating the support rather than any technical levels until closer to the 1.1500 area.
- GBP: Cable climbed steadily through the session pushing away from the opening around 1.3195 and back through the 1.3200 levels into the Tokyo session, the steady climb continued through into mid-session pushing just a little beyond the 1.3225 areas before slipping back to hold around the 1.3220 levels into the grey hour. Topside offers through the 1.3250 level likely to be very light with the market seeing some weak congestion until the market nears the 1.3300 areas with stronger offers likely to appear through to 1.3310 areas before any sign of weak stops appear, a break through the level is likely to see the market moving towards the 1.3350 areas and further congestive offers from that point building into stronger offers as the market moves towards the 1.3400 levels.
- JPY: The opening just below the 113.50 areas posted the highs for the day and the market drifted down to the 113.25 areas in early Tokyo to base along the level through to the grey hour where some early buying moved in to push the market back to the opening levels, Downside bids through into the 113.00 areas however, weak stops could appear as the market moves through the 113.10 areas and opens the market to further selling if the market has sufficient impetus to break through the 112.80 levels with limited congestion into the 112.50 level and only into the 112.00 areas does the market look to be supportive. Topside offer light through the 114.00 areas however, offers increase above the 114.10 areas with possible weak stops a short distance above will likely see the market move quickly through to the 114.50 areas before resistance starts to appear again with stronger offers likely the closer you get to 115.
- AUD: Very quiet for the Oz with the market seeing some general USD weakness feeding through and the Oz initially in a tight channelled rise from the opening around the 0.7807 area to test the 0.7825 areas so 18 pips, having taken most of the session to get there the market moving in the last hour to the grey hour saw that gain quickly reversed and almost flat for the London session. Topside offers through the 0.7840 levels more congestive than anything else with the market increasing through to 0.7860 before any weakness appears, larger offers appear around the 0.7880-0.7900 areas with strong stops likely through the level, Downside bids light through the 78 cent level with very few stops expected however, a push through the 0.7775 level will likely see better stops and bids appearing and a congested downside from then on.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
GBP:
Britain’s time to cut a Brexit deal is running out BBG
PM May has stepped up pressure on the EU for trade talks to be completed by next summer 2018
NZD:
NZ Labour govt. to introduce royalty on bottled water exports
NZ Labour says no resource rentals for water this term
Winston Peters named as NZ deputy PM
NZ labour led govt. to review reform reserve bank act
Ardern Labour leader committed to fiscal responsibility
Ardern you will see significant increase in minimum wage
Ardern we have prioritized regional economic development
EUR:
Merkel left furious by Brexit leaks against PM May
Suggested that some don’t want a deal within Europe responsible for leak
Barnier said on Monday his team are already working on a draft Brexit treaty (which part)?
CNY:
All eyes on Xi succession plan as China party congress wraps up
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing Oct (P) A 52.5 | C 53.1 | P 52.9
07:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Manufacturing PMI Oct (P) C 56 | P 56.1
07:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Services PMI Oct (P) C 56.9 | P 57
07:30Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Manufacturing PMI Oct (P) C 60 | P 60.6
07:30Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Services PMI Oct (P) C 55.5 | P 55.6
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Oct (P) C 57.8 | P 58.1
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services PMI Oct (P) C 55.6 | P 55.8
13:45Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â US Manufacturing PMI Oct (P) C 53.2 | P 53.1
13:45Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â US Services PMI Oct (P) C 55.1 | P 55.3
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Harry Hindsight
- EUR: Limited data and limited day with the market opening slightly weaker with US news and the election in Japan dominating the market, opening around the 1.1770 level the market was unable to close the small gap on the charts, the market made an early attempt to close to the 1.1780 areas but drifted away from the area in the move into the Tokyo session dropping back to the 1.1750 levels before finding some limited support and a slow recovery through to the grey hour, the final attempt to close the gap saw the market pushing to the 1.1778 area before dropping back quickly into the early London session with the market quickly testing the 1.1750 level again and holding for a couple of hours before dropping through the level and a steady drift through to the NYK session with the market basing around the 1.1735 area before rising into the London close, London out of the way saw the market again testing lower this time into the 1.1720’s before bouncing off the level and holding steady into a quiet close around the 1.1750 areas.
- GBP: Opening in line with Friday early Tokyo took the markets to the 1.3170 levels before returning just as quickly to the opening levels and a slow push through the 1.3200 level into the Grey hour in slow trading, early London despite the comments in German newspapers of PM May pleading for help saw the market push through to the 1.3225 areas before dropping quickly back into the full session, while the reports on PM May’s desperate needs evaporated later in the day as even Juncket made comments contrary to the reports again it left a nasty taste in the mouth for the Eurosceptic and is even said to have angered German Chancellor Merkel, well maybe in public. The market dipped back to hold the 1.3160 levels through the session to the opening in NYK where buyers again slowly returned the market to trade around the 1.3200 areas and although the market never looked like attaining the earlier highs ranged around that 1.3200 level to the close.
- JPY: Early USD gains after the election in Japan confirms Abe continuing until 2021 and therefore the supportive policies likely to continue saw the USDJPY opening around the 113.80 levels and then moving into the Tokyo session to push through to the 114.10 areas before finding some limited resistance to the move, and the market drifted back to move into the grey hours attempting to fill the gap on the charts, the market then slowly moved back to the 1.1400 areas through the London session, NYK were slow sellers until close to the close when the market saw strong selling move in and the market testing to just below the 113.30 level and the gap finally filled.
- AUD: A quiet day for the Oz with the early part of the session slipping back to the 78 cent areas having opened in line with Fridays close, strong AUDJPY buying in the Tokyo session saw the market rising higher pushing through the opening levels around the 0.7820 areas and eventually reaching the highs as the market moved into the grey hour, having touched the 0.7835 level the market fell back again to the 0.7805 areas and that was really it for the day with minor dips through the 78 cent areas but generally holding around the 0.7805 areas.
Yesterday’s premiership results
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Bundesbank Releases Monthly Report
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CBI Trends Total Orders Oct A -2 | C 9 | P 7
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Sales M/M Aug A 0.50% | C 1.10% | P 1.50% | R 1.70%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Consumer Confidence Oct (A) A -1 | C -1.1 | P -1.2
Good Luck,
Andy
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