Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 113.907 | EURUSD 1.17612 | AUDUSD 0.7776 | NZDUSD 0.68872 | USDCAD 1.26751 | USDCHF 0.99112 | GBPUSD 1.31336 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.17702 | 1.1753
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 113.980 | 113.75
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.31376 | 1.31216
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99181 | 0.99042
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.77841 | 0.77167
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.26871 | 1.26695
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.69121 | 0.68815
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.16602 | 1.16492
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.89622 | 0.89487
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 134.108 | 133.787
For today
- EUR: Quiet session with the Euro rising into the Tokyo opening to make the highs around the 1.1770 level before slipping slowly lower to test along the 1.1755 areas through to the grey hour, Light offers to the topside with some stronger offers into the 1.1800 levels with possible weak stops through the 1.1820 levels however, congestion likely into the 1.1840-60 areas with limited weakness then through to the 1.1880 and stronger offers appearing to protect the 1.1900 level. Downside bids into the 1.1750-40 levels with limited congestion into the stronger bids into the figure area and through to the 1.1680 level, some light bids through the level however, stronger bids appear into the 1.1660 level with likely limited stops through the area mixed with some congestive bids before the 1.1620-00 areas appear.
- GBP: Cable ranged around the 1.3130 levels through to the grey hours with a narrow range testing towards the 1.3120 level to the downside and rising limitedly to the 1.3135 areas on the topside. Offers weak all the way through to the 1.3220 levels where stronger offers are likely to appear and limited congestion then through to the 1.3250 areas, a push through the level will see a stiffer set of offers through to the 1.3300 areas with congestion through the level and then possibly weak stops on a move through the 1.3320 areas. Downside bids into the 1.3100 areas likely to be strong for the moment with very little interest until a move through to the GDP numbers, a push through the level will likely see stronger bids appearing as the market approaches the 1.3050 areas and strong congestion likely through the level and into the 1.3000 area.
- JPY: USDJPY opened around the 113.90 areas and saw limited attempts at the 114.00 areas however, weakness in the Oz saw the USDJPY come under pressure as AUDJPY cross selling moved into the market and testing through to the 113.75 areas however, once the cross was over with the USDJPY rose again to hold above the 113.90 levels through into the grey hours. Offers to the Topside through the 114.00 areas with a push through the 114.20 areas likely to see weak stops and the market opening to the 114.50-60 areas with some resistance likely in the area, through the level will see some stronger offers and light option barriers on a move towards the 115.00 areas.
- AUD: The mover for the day with the Oz trading quietly around the 0.7775 level before the release of the CPI numbers, weaker numbers all around saw the Oz drop quickly through to the 0.7740 areas and then a slower continuation of the decline and pushing back to the 0.7720 levels before finding some limited support and holding through to the grey hour. Downside bids into the 0.7700 levels with possible strong congestion likely through the level with a mix of stops through the 0.7650 areas and stronger bids likely to start appearing in earnest. Topside offers light through to the 78 cent areas where offers are likely to building now the market has moved lower, a push through the 0.7820 areas will likely see the potential for a small short squeeze higher however, any move above the 0.7860 levels is likely to meet strong resistance for the time being.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
USD:
Trump taking FED chair decision very seriously
Ross: says he’s hopeful for vote on tax reform by end of year
Republican senators Bob Corker, John McCain, Rand Paul may not support tax overhaul
NAFTA:
End of NAFTA could spur Mexican recession in 2019 IIF
S&P:
Sees more downgrades than upgrades for 20 big EM sovereigns
NZD:
Jacinda Ardern say unemployment should be below 4%
Ardern bans foreign property buyers
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Q/Q Q3 A 0.60% | C 0.80% | P 0.20%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Q3 A 1.80% | C 2.00% | P 1.90%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI RBA Trimmed Mean Q/Q Q3 A 0.40% | C 0.50% | P 0.50%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI RBA Trimmed Mean Y/Y Q3 A 1.80% | C 2.00% | P 1.80%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI RBA Weighted Median Q/Q Q3 A 0.30% | C 0.50% | P 0.50%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI RBA Weighted Median Y/Y Q3 A 1.90% | C 2.00% | P 1.80% | R 1.90%
06:00Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â UBS Consumption Indicator Sep P 1.53
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Business Climate Oct C 115.1 | P 115.2
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Expectations Oct C 107.3 | P 107.4
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Current Assessment Oct C 123.5 | P 123.6
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q3 (A) C 0.30% | P 0.30%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Y/Y Q3 (A) C 1.50% | P 1.50%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Index of Services 3M/3M Aug C 0.40% | P 0.50%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Durable Goods Orders Sep (P) C 1.00% | P 2.00%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Durables Ex Transportation Sep (P) C 0.50% | P 0.50%
13:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â House Price Index M/M Aug C 0.40% | P 0.20%
14:00Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoC Rate Decision C 1.00% | P 1.00%
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Home Sales Sep C 556K | P 560K
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories P -5.7M
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Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A fairly quiet session through the bulk of the day with the Euro moving off the 1.1750 areas to push through too late into the Tokyo testing the 1.1770 levels for the run into the Tokyo session, the move to the grey hour saw the market drifting back to the 1.1755 level, the move in to the London session saw mixed PMI numbers and the market dropping back on the Eurozone numbers particularly testing through to make the lows for the day around the 1.1745 areas before recovering and trading around the 1.1760 levels through the day, talk of three GOP senators may not support the Tax proposals, this caused a quick rally in the Euro testing towards the 1.1795 levels before dropping back just as quick to the 1.1760 areas to the close.
- GBP: Tokyo took the Cable slowly through the 1.3200 areas and pushed towards the 1.3230 into the grey hour, the market drifted through to the London session and with Brexit commentary fairly active over leaked information from the private meeting between EU officials and PM May last week, the Cable continued to drift through the day with the market testing to the 1.3160 levels into the NYK session, the drift continued and the push through the 1.3150 levels saw some weak stops and the market dropping back to the 1.3115 levels before finding some support and the market rose through to the end of the session to the 1.3130 level.
- JPY: USDJPY saw limited movement into the Tokyo session drifting from the early highs just below the 113.50 areas and testing down to the 11325 areas and holding through towards the grey hour, a rise into the hour saw the market back to the opening levels and continuing through the grey hour to test the 113.60 into the and struggle through the early part of London with a slow rise to the 113.75 area, NYK saw the market rise quickly from the opening testing towards the 114.00 level, the market struggled with the 114.00 areas through late into the session with the USDJPY dipping on the US Tax legislation statements on CNBC, however, the market returned to its former levels and held just short of 114 areas to the close.
- AUD: A slow rise through the Asian session saw the market ticking above the 0.7820 levels before drifting back to the opening 0.7810 areas before moving into the grey hour and quick sellers started to move in taking the market down through the 78 cent levels to base around the 0.7775 areas through to the close, even the gyrations late in the session saw only a minor blip before holding the base line to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing Oct (P) A 52.5 | C 53.1 | P 52.9
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Manufacturing PMI Oct (P) A 56.7 | C 56 | P 56.1
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Services PMI Oct (P) A 57.4 | C 56.9 | P 57
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Manufacturing PMI Oct (P) A 60.5 | C 60 | P 60.6
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Services PMI Oct (P) A 55.2 | C 55.5 | P 55.6
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Oct (P) A 58.4 | C 57.8 | P 58.1
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services PMI Oct (P) A 54.9 | C 55.6 | P 55.8
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â US Manufacturing PMI Oct (P) A 54.5 | C 53.2 | P 53.1
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â US Services PMI Oct (P) A 55.9 | C 55.1 | P 55.3
Good Luck,
Andy
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